中泰证券：险资模拟总投资收益率升至4.79% 板块大逻辑框架演绎未变

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智通财经APP获悉，中泰证券发布研报称，资金面再平衡有望延续，中报预增催化7月板块投资热情。6月下旬以来，板块整体“进三退二”呈现底部中枢抬升的趋势，该行继续看好板块的中报行情。今年以来保险板块节奏与市场明显错位，在以科技成长风格明显占优的背景下，低估值的保险板块未能获得资金的青睐。该行认为板块“短期看资金面抛压缓解，中期看“存款搬家&慢牛持续”提振价值与利润增速，长期看顺周期兑现告别利差损隐忧”...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1465170.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，中泰证券发布研报称，资金面再平衡有望延续，中报预增催化7月板块投资热情。6月下旬以来，板块整体“进三退二”呈现底部中枢抬升的趋势，该行继续看好板块的中报行情。今年以来保险板块节奏与市场明显错位，在以科技成长风格明显占优的背景下，低估值的保险板块未能获得资金的青睐。该行认为板块“短期看资金面抛压缓解，中期看“存款搬家&慢牛持续”提振价值与利润增速，长期看顺周期兑现告别利差损隐忧”...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1465170.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"IAK","symbol_name":"iShares Dow Jones U.S. 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unchanged","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600918":1.5,"IAK":1.5,"KIE":1.5},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，中泰证券发布研报称，资金面再平衡有望延续，中报预增催化7月板块投资热情。6月下旬以来，板块整体“进三退二”呈现底部中枢抬升的趋势，该行继续看好板块的中报行情。今年以来保险板块节奏与市场明显错位，在以科技成长风格明显占优的背景下，低估值的保险板块未能获得资金的青睐。该行认为板块“短期看资金面抛压缓解，中期看“存款搬家&慢牛持续”提振价值与利润增速，长期看顺周期兑现告别利差损隐忧”的大逻辑框架演绎未变。负债端存款搬家与资产端持续慢牛是保险板块长逻辑基础。中泰证券主要观点如下：通过中泰非银保险资金运用收益率指数体系对未来三年的行业投资收益率进行模拟展望具体来看，该行先根据保险资金大类资产配置结构，结合当前各类资产收益率(包括债券到期收益率，股票股息率，长期股权投资平均收益率，信托预期收益率等)，估算“新钱收益率”(NMII)水平;其次，该行根据保险资金平均久期和净现金流规模(新增保费流入与存量保单给付差)，假设存量净投资收益率为上述各大类资产收益率的6年平均，得到行业平均净投资收益率(NII);最后，该行结合交易性金融资产买卖价差(非年化)得到总投资收益率(TII)。综上，该行测算得到当前年化新钱收益率水平约为2.61%;2025-2027年行业平均净投资收益率分别为3.35%、3.09%和2.87%。险资年初至今本期TII为4.79%，处于近十年(2016年以来)历史分位数的63.49%(中上水平)经测算，本期(2026年6月)险资模拟新钱收益率为2.61%(上期为2.63%，上年同期为2.73%);本期模拟净投资收益率为3.23%(上期为3.24%，上年同期为3.56%);本期模拟年化总投资收益率为4.79%(上期为4.67%，上年同期为4.33%)，总投资收益率高于净投资收益率的原因系本期交易性金融资产买卖价差-非年化达9.77%(上期为8.96%，上年同期为5.14%)。固收类资产收益率跟踪：优质资产荒延续，到期收益率水平小幅向下根据该行测算，本期债券平均NMII为1.86%，存量NII为2.76%;调整后新增存款平均收益率为1.62%，存量收益率为2.43%;根据用益信托网数据，非标类资管信托平均预期年化收益率为4.79%。保险公司债券配置跟踪：地方债20-30Y是配置总量及季节性进度贡献主力。6月债券南向通开闸，头部6家险资资管积极参与。权益类资产收益率跟踪：股基收益率走阔，平安南下举牌银行股热情不减根据该行测算，2026年年初至6月末，险资股基投资收益率为9.0%(2025年同期为5.5%)。本期沪深港加权股息率预计为3.05%。根据ifind统计，2Q26沪深300加权平均ROE(TTM)约为9.31%(前值为9.24%)。本期险资作为主要股东对港股流通股增加的行业主要集中在银行。平安举牌农业银行H股，期末穿透后平安合计持有农业银行H股流通股的30.03%。平安继续增持招商银行H股，期末穿透后平安合计持有招商银行H股流通股的26.2%，平安减持中国电信H股;弘康人寿继续出售郑州银行H股，富德人寿出售重庆银行H股。本期保险资金调研频次最高的前十个股分别为杰瑞股份、广信材料、水晶光电、京东方A、新集能源、大金重工、容大感光、凌云光、赣锋锂业和立昂微。风险提示：测算结果受制于数据可得性和假设合理性约束，存在偏差风险;宏观经济复苏低于预期，长端利率快速大幅下行;权益市场波动加剧。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"CCBot/2.0 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