大摩“增持”Rocket Lab：吞下铱星补齐通信拼图，正复刻SpaceX一体化航天路径

智通财经07-09

摩根士丹利近日发布Rocket Lab(RKLB.US)深度研报，Rocket Lab于2026年6月官宣收购铱星通讯(IRDM.US)，交易预计2027年年中完成，是公司从单一火箭发射商转型全产业链太空平台的战略拐点。基于战略逻辑升级，该行维持Rocket Lab“增持”评级，基准目标价105美元，乐观情景目标价由185美元上调至293美元，多空风险收益比4.8倍，上行空间显著大于下行风险。本次...

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cky10327
07-10
cky10327
是不是因为你增持所以下杀啊，跌太狠了吧

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2.23万亿市值的2.8%;2026年预期营收9.23亿美元，仅占SpaceX营收的2.1%，卫星数量、发射总运力、订阅用户规模均大幅落后。成本端SpaceX凭借星舰超重型可回收火箭形成碾压优势，2030年单位载荷入轨成本仅515美元/公斤，而Rocket Lab中型火箭Neutron单位成本约1731美元/公斤。但从增长速度看，Rocket Lab具备更强弹性：2025-2028年整体营收复合增速45%，发射业务增速高达57%，远高于SpaceX发射业务22%的增速;发射板块毛利润复合增速69%，对比SpaceX仅15%。产品端，Rocket Lab现有成熟小型火箭Electron，正在研发2027年首飞的中型可回收火箭Neutron，补齐中大型载荷发射能力，预计2030年Electron年发射50次、Neutron年发射18次，持续摊薄发射成本。在AI与轨道算力领域双方差距最大，SpaceX布局地面超算与2028年在轨算力卫星，Rocket Lab仅能提供航天硬件配套，暂无算力相关收入。财务层面，Rocket Lab仍处于投入期，2025至2027年持续亏损，2027年实现正向调整后EBITDA，2028年净利润、自由现金流同步转正;而SpaceX当前已实现大额盈利，星舰放量后利润将爆发式增长。整体来看，Rocket Lab依托更小基数与铱星通信增量业务，营收、利润增速将持续跑赢龙头。估值与风险：长期空间广阔，短期依赖火箭研发兑现大摩在报告中设置了三种估值情景，清晰划分个股收益区间。乐观情景目标价293美元，测算逻辑为给予Rocket Lab对应SpaceX航天板块总估值10%的成长空间，前提是Neutron火箭研发、复用技术落地顺利，铱星通信业务价值完全释放，对应股价上涨空间超250%;基准情景105美元，相较SpaceX估值折价30%，折价来源为中型火箭研发不确定性、通信业务尚待整合，对应上涨空间25.88%;悲观情景目标价40美元，假设Neutron延期、发射故障频发、复用技术不及预期，2030年营收仅达乐观情景六成，股价下跌超52%。期权隐含数据显示，股价触及乐观价概率趋近于0，跌破悲观价概率34.6%，达到基准目标价概率约12.6%。大摩同时梳理多维度核心风险与投资逻辑。上行催化包括：低轨巨型星座建设持续拉动发射需求、IRDM稀缺频谱形成长期壁垒、太空机器人收购完善在轨服务布局、政府航天订单稳定放量。下行风险集中于Neutron火箭研发进度不及预期、行业发射价格战压缩利润、铱星并购存在第三方竞购导致交易终止、持续资本开支拉长盈利周期、频谱监管政策变动削弱IRDM核心资产价值。整体而言，摩根士丹利判断航天赛道长期景气度充足，Rocket Lab通过收购铱星通信补齐业务短板，搭建起区别于SpaceX的差异化一体化航天平台。虽然短期企业仍面临亏损、研发不确定性等压力，但更高的增长弹性与稀缺通信资产打开长期估值天花板，风险收益配比具备投资价值，核心变量集中于中型火箭Neutron的落地进度与铱星业务整合效果。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"corporation","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":584345645904096,"gmtCreate":1783692610932,"gmtModify":1783692612971,"author":{"id":"3437638669595671","authorId":"3437638669595671","name":"cky10327","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acdead004b0adf71a64965b49b032882","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3437638669595671","authorIdStr":"3437638669595671"},"htmlText":"是不是因为你增持 所以下杀啊，跌太狠了吧","listText":"是不是因为你增持 所以下杀啊，跌太狠了吧","text":"是不是因为你增持 所以下杀啊，跌太狠了吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/584345645904096","repostId":2650925983,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2650925983","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1783593426,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2650925983?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-09 18:37","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"大摩“增持”Rocket Lab：吞下铱星补齐通信拼图，正复刻SpaceX一体化航天路径","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2650925983","media":"智通财经","summary":"依托发射、卫星制造、卫星通信三大业务协同，Rocket Lab正式复制SpaceX“垂直一体化”商业模式，成为全球$航天$赛道第二大核心玩家。整体来看，Rocket Lab依托更小基数与铱星通信增量业务，营收、利润增速将持续跑赢龙头。整体而言，摩根士丹利判断航天赛道长期景气度充足，Rocket Lab通过收购铱星通信补齐业务短板，搭建起区别于SpaceX的差异化一体化航天平台。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>近日发布<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RKLB\">Rocket Lab</a>(RKLB.US)深度研报，Rocket Lab于2026年6月官宣收购<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IRDM\">铱星通讯</a>(IRDM.US)，交易预计2027年年中完成，是公司从单一火箭发射商转型全产业链太空平台的战略拐点。基于战略逻辑升级，该行维持Rocket Lab“增持”评级，基准目标价105美元，乐观情景目标价由185美元上调至293美元，多空风险收益比4.8倍，上行空间显著大于下行风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">本次收购交易总对价每股54美元，较IRDM前期股价溢价24.1%，采用现金+股票对半支付模式，扣除现金、叠加标的债务后企业估值约75.87亿美元。IRDM手握稀缺全球L波段频谱、66颗在轨运营卫星与250万政企存量用户，2025年实现近8.72亿美元营收，EBITDA利润率高达57%，能够为Rocket Lab带来稳定现金流，省去自建低轨<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STZ\">星座</a>巨额资本开支与数年建设周期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">大摩在报告中明确，Rocket Lab收购IRDM并非对标SpaceX(SPCX.US)星链宽带业务，二者赛道错位竞争：铱星主打低带宽、高可靠性的政企关键任务通信，星链聚焦大众高速宽带互联网，仅卫星直连手机业务未来存在小幅重叠。依托发射、卫星制造、卫星通信三大业务协同，Rocket Lab正式复制SpaceX“垂直一体化”商业模式，成为全球<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000901\">航天</a>赛道第二大核心玩家。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>对标SpaceX：体量差距显著，但增长弹性更突出</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告对Rocket Lab与龙头SpaceX进行了对比，二者当前存在量级差距，但Rocket Lab中长期增长潜力更强。市值维度，Rocket Lab约623亿美元，仅为SpaceX 2.23万亿市值的2.8%;2026年预期营收9.23亿美元，仅占SpaceX营收的2.1%，卫星数量、发射总运力、订阅用户规模均大幅落后。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">成本端SpaceX凭借星舰超重型可回收火箭形成碾压优势，2030年单位载荷入轨成本仅515美元/公斤，而Rocket Lab中型火箭Neutron单位成本约1731美元/公斤。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">但从增长速度看，Rocket Lab具备更强弹性：2025-2028年整体营收复合增速45%，发射业务增速高达57%，远高于SpaceX发射业务22%的增速;发射板块毛利润复合增速69%，对比SpaceX仅15%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">产品端，Rocket Lab现有成熟小型火箭Electron，正在研发2027年首飞的中型可回收火箭Neutron，补齐中大型载荷发射能力，预计2030年Electron年发射50次、Neutron年发射18次，持续摊薄发射成本。在AI与轨道算力领域双方差距最大，SpaceX布局地面超算与2028年在轨算力卫星，Rocket Lab仅能提供<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00031\">航天</a>硬件配套，暂无算力相关收入。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财务层面，Rocket Lab仍处于投入期，2025至2027年持续亏损，2027年实现正向调整后EBITDA，2028年净利润、自由现金流同步转正;而SpaceX当前已实现大额盈利，星舰放量后利润将爆发式增长。整体来看，Rocket Lab依托更小基数与铱星通信增量业务，营收、利润增速将持续跑赢龙头。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>估值与风险：长期空间广阔，短期依赖火箭研发兑现</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">大摩在报告中设置了三种估值情景，清晰划分个股收益区间。乐观情景目标价293美元，测算逻辑为给予Rocket Lab对应SpaceX航天板块总估值10%的成长空间，前提是Neutron火箭研发、复用技术落地顺利，铱星通信业务价值完全释放，对应股价上涨空间超250%;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">基准情景105美元，相较SpaceX估值折价30%，折价来源为中型火箭研发不确定性、通信业务尚待整合，对应上涨空间25.88%;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">悲观情景目标价40美元，假设Neutron延期、发射故障频发、复用技术不及预期，2030年营收仅达乐观情景六成，股价下跌超52%。期权隐含数据显示，股价触及乐观价概率趋近于0，跌破悲观价概率34.6%，达到基准目标价概率约12.6%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">大摩同时梳理多维度核心风险与投资逻辑。上行催化包括：低轨巨型星座建设持续拉动发射需求、IRDM稀缺频谱形成长期壁垒、太空机器人收购完善在轨服务布局、政府航天订单稳定放量。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">下行风险集中于Neutron火箭研发进度不及预期、行业发射价格战压缩利润、铱星并购存在第三方竞购导致交易终止、持续资本开支拉长盈利周期、频谱监管政策变动削弱IRDM核心资产价值。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">整体而言，摩根士丹利判断航天赛道长期景气度充足，Rocket Lab通过收购铱星通信补齐业务短板，搭建起区别于SpaceX的差异化一体化航天平台。虽然短期企业仍面临亏损、研发不确定性等压力，但更高的增长弹性与稀缺通信资产打开长期估值天花板，风险收益配比具备投资价值，核心变量集中于中型火箭Neutron的落地进度与铱星业务整合效果。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大摩“增持”Rocket Lab：吞下铱星补齐通信拼图，正复刻SpaceX一体化航天路径\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-07-09 18:37 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1465428.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摩根士丹利近日发布Rocket Lab(RKLB.US)深度研报，Rocket Lab于2026年6月官宣收购铱星通讯(IRDM.US)，交易预计2027年年中完成，是公司从单一火箭发射商转型全产业链太空平台的战略拐点。基于战略逻辑升级，该行维持Rocket Lab“增持”评级，基准目标价105美元，乐观情景目标价由185美元上调至293美元，多空风险收益比4.8倍，上行空间显著大于下行风险。本次...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1465428.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bddf80384c1c295e9f193b92e031197b","relate_stocks":{"BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","RKLZ":"2倍做空RKLB ETF-Defiance","LU0106261372.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" ACC","IRDM":"铱星通讯","RKLB":"Rocket Lab USA, Inc.","LU2089284900.SGD":"Allianz Global Sustainability Cl AM Dis H2-SGD","LU0267386448.USD":"FIDELITY FIRST ALL COUNTRY WORLD \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0225283273.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EQUITY ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US 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Lab收购IRDM并非对标SpaceX(SPCX.US)星链宽带业务，二者赛道错位竞争：铱星主打低带宽、高可靠性的政企关键任务通信，星链聚焦大众高速宽带互联网，仅卫星直连手机业务未来存在小幅重叠。依托发射、卫星制造、卫星通信三大业务协同，Rocket Lab正式复制SpaceX“垂直一体化”商业模式，成为全球航天赛道第二大核心玩家。对标SpaceX：体量差距显著，但增长弹性更突出报告对Rocket Lab与龙头SpaceX进行了对比，二者当前存在量级差距，但Rocket Lab中长期增长潜力更强。市值维度，Rocket Lab约623亿美元，仅为SpaceX 2.23万亿市值的2.8%;2026年预期营收9.23亿美元，仅占SpaceX营收的2.1%，卫星数量、发射总运力、订阅用户规模均大幅落后。成本端SpaceX凭借星舰超重型可回收火箭形成碾压优势，2030年单位载荷入轨成本仅515美元/公斤，而Rocket Lab中型火箭Neutron单位成本约1731美元/公斤。但从增长速度看，Rocket Lab具备更强弹性：2025-2028年整体营收复合增速45%，发射业务增速高达57%，远高于SpaceX发射业务22%的增速;发射板块毛利润复合增速69%，对比SpaceX仅15%。产品端，Rocket Lab现有成熟小型火箭Electron，正在研发2027年首飞的中型可回收火箭Neutron，补齐中大型载荷发射能力，预计2030年Electron年发射50次、Neutron年发射18次，持续摊薄发射成本。在AI与轨道算力领域双方差距最大，SpaceX布局地面超算与2028年在轨算力卫星，Rocket Lab仅能提供航天硬件配套，暂无算力相关收入。财务层面，Rocket Lab仍处于投入期，2025至2027年持续亏损，2027年实现正向调整后EBITDA，2028年净利润、自由现金流同步转正;而SpaceX当前已实现大额盈利，星舰放量后利润将爆发式增长。整体来看，Rocket Lab依托更小基数与铱星通信增量业务，营收、利润增速将持续跑赢龙头。估值与风险：长期空间广阔，短期依赖火箭研发兑现大摩在报告中设置了三种估值情景，清晰划分个股收益区间。乐观情景目标价293美元，测算逻辑为给予Rocket Lab对应SpaceX航天板块总估值10%的成长空间，前提是Neutron火箭研发、复用技术落地顺利，铱星通信业务价值完全释放，对应股价上涨空间超250%;基准情景105美元，相较SpaceX估值折价30%，折价来源为中型火箭研发不确定性、通信业务尚待整合，对应上涨空间25.88%;悲观情景目标价40美元，假设Neutron延期、发射故障频发、复用技术不及预期，2030年营收仅达乐观情景六成，股价下跌超52%。期权隐含数据显示，股价触及乐观价概率趋近于0，跌破悲观价概率34.6%，达到基准目标价概率约12.6%。大摩同时梳理多维度核心风险与投资逻辑。上行催化包括：低轨巨型星座建设持续拉动发射需求、IRDM稀缺频谱形成长期壁垒、太空机器人收购完善在轨服务布局、政府航天订单稳定放量。下行风险集中于Neutron火箭研发进度不及预期、行业发射价格战压缩利润、铱星并购存在第三方竞购导致交易终止、持续资本开支拉长盈利周期、频谱监管政策变动削弱IRDM核心资产价值。整体而言，摩根士丹利判断航天赛道长期景气度充足，Rocket 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