中信证券：港股逼空交易和pair trading共现，美股重拾AI动能交易

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智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，上周央行行长潘功胜表态外储将继续增加在港的资产配置比例，推动港股连续第二周大幅反弹。目前港股未平仓卖空占市值比例虽已从6月中旬的高点小幅回落至2.43%，但仍接近历史均值三倍标准差以上的水平，内外部扰动因素逐步缓和下，预计未来将有较大的回落空间。但近期港股也有较为明显的pair trading迹象，短期仍建议关注基本面确定性较高和有事件催化的方向，包括：...

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trading迹象，短期仍建议关注基本面确定性较高和有事件催化的方向，包括：创新药、航空、机器人和强工业属性金属。美股上周AI主线交易动能显著回归，SK海力士美股上市后股价上涨印证AI硬件产业链热度持续，Meta扩建数据中心、亚马逊发债筹资印证科技巨头资本开支仍具韧性，有效缓解市场对AI领域投入节奏放缓的担忧。预计美股后续将维持震荡上行走势，建议关注：软件、军工、能源基建及金融板块。中信证券主要观点如下：外储将继续增加在港的资产配置比例。根据央行官网，7月7日，中国人民银行、香港金管局与香港证监会共同宣布11项进一步深化香港和内地金融市场合作的新措施，旨在完善香港固定收益与货币市场的建设，以及支持香港离岸人民币枢纽的安排。中国人民银行行长潘功胜在致辞时表示，中国人民银行将配合香港本地政府与金融管理机构，建设好、巩固好及发展好香港金融中心。在致辞中，他提及国家外汇储备将继续提高在港的资产配置比例，为香港资本市场的发展注入更多动能。该言论在2025年的第18届亚洲金融论坛上由潘功胜行长首次提及，尔后港股迎来9.24以来的第二轮上涨，恒生指数在45个交易日内上涨了近30%。根据国家外汇管理局年报，中国外汇储备的货币结构相较于全球平均水平呈现更高的多元化和分散化特点;收益率角度，2010年至2019年间，中国外汇储备投资的平均收益率达到3.2%。港股市场中，目前恒生高股息率指数的TTM股息率高达6.0%，明显具备较强的收益优势。逼空交易和pair trading在港股共同演绎。过去两周港股领涨的方向主要为未平仓卖空占市值比例最大的行业，如医疗(4.07%)、可选消费(3.03%)和科技(2.83%)。整体看，目前港股市场未平仓卖空占市值比例虽已从6月中旬的高点小幅回落至2.43%，但仍接近历史均值三倍标准差以上的水平，内外部扰动因素逐步缓和下，预计未来将有较大的回落空间。但6月29日港股整体反弹以来，A/H溢价指数却走扩2.1%，特别是H股有溢价的标的近期的溢价率明显收窄，包括澜起科技、兆易创新、宁德时代等。叠加最近两个交易日人民币汇率再现升值迹象以及南向ETF仍持续流出(3月5日以来已累计流出1256亿元)，也提示pair trading对H股影响。短期仍建议关注基本面确定性较高和有事件催化的方向，包括：1)创新药(业绩有韧性+回购支撑+海外BD);2)航空(出行旺季+油价回落);3)机器人(Optimus预计量产的催化);4)强工业属性金属(业绩高增长+加息预期回落)。上周美股AI算力主线的动能交易重新活跃，市场风险偏好同步提升。信息技术、能源、通讯服务板块领涨，费城半导体指数上涨2.7%。SK海力士美股ADR上市首日收涨12.8%，超额认购及强劲表现为AI动能交易延续提供有力佐证。7月初，Meta曾释放出售部分富余算力的信号，引发市场对科技巨头资本开支放缓的担忧，半导体板块波动明显放大。不过近期市场情绪再度反转，Meta宣布将在加拿大投资130亿加元新建数据中心，释放出资本开支意愿不减反增的强烈信号。与此同时，亚马逊于本周向SEC提交美元债发行文件，启动8个期限的债券发行;据彭博、CNBC等媒体报道，本次亚马逊发行债券规模合计约为250亿美元。尽管短期市场对AI资本开支可持续性存在分歧，但头部厂商的实际行动并未转向保守，算力军备竞赛的叙事依然成立，成为支撑本轮动能交易延续的关键基本面依据。美股AI硬件链条与云计算资本开支两条主线相互印证下，前期担忧情绪或将逐步消化，动能交易特征有望延续。截至7月10日，标普500(20.4x)和纳指100(23.3x)的动态PE较上周分别扩张0.9和2.4个百分点，相较于6月2日的高点仍处于相对低位;同时，纳指100及MAG8至年底盈利增速分别较上周再度上修0.36和0.08个百分点。结合当前估值水平及业绩持续上修趋势，判断短期美股将维持震荡上行格局，建议关注：1)或迎来资金进一步回流的软件行业;2)地缘政治风险长期化，需求确定性高的军工;3)受益于数据中心建设和电气化转型的能源基础设施;4)受益于资本回报及监管改善双重驱动的金融板块(银行及Fintech)。风险因素：全球地缘冲突再度升级;中美关系恶化;全球央行超预期收紧货币政策;境内经济复苏与政策落地不及预期;AI商业化进展不及预期。美股实际业绩不及预期，预测数据可能存在偏差。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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