高盛：上半年增速最快的是全球的“杠杆”

格隆汇07-01

高盛警告，全球杠杆链条已延伸至每一角落——散户疯狂涌入近2000亿美元杠杆ETF，机构借道TRS堆砌头寸，交易商杠杆触及年中历史峰值，标普500融资利率一度飙升至联邦基金利率+127.5个基点。韩国市场更已演变为“巨大的自我强化反馈循环”。一旦融资链条某处断裂，连锁崩塌或在旦夕之间。高盛期货交易专家Robert Quinn在最新周报中指出，本周股票融资成本出现“前所未有”的跳升，交易商杠杆触及年中历史峰值，9月标普500 TRF的融资利率一度高达联邦基金利率+127.5个基点。衡量美股融资成本的CME标普500指数调整利率总收益期货(AIT TRF)已攀升至2024年底以来的最高水平。经纪商Kyte的Andy Kent表示，“杠杆已成为投资者面临的核心主题之一，保证金债务高企，影子银行体系各环节的借贷持续扩张。”

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