QDII“10元档”限购扩容，科技巨震是阵痛还是拐点

第一财经07-02

多只热门QDII产品的单日申购额度近日被压降至“地板级”。Wind数据显示，截至7月2日，全市场近半数QDII产品处于暂停申购或大额限购状态，其中“10元档”产品已增至12只。年内业绩排名前20的QDII中，有19只已设限严控规模。　　资金蜂拥而入的背后，是对全球半导体与AI算力产业链的押注。一季报显示，QDII基金在信息技术板块的配置比例已超三成。华泰柏瑞中韩半导体ETF、天弘全球高端制造A、...

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Point","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/befad38dff0d613b7ca35012f5f38794","symbols_score_info":{"688256":1.88,"688981":1.87,"FBY":0.6,"GOOGL":1.86,"TSM":1.9,"MSFL":0.6,"GOOY":0.6,"TSMG":0.6,"GOOP":0.6,"MSFX":0.6,"MSFW":0.6,"MSFO":0.6,"MSFU":0.6,"MSFY":0.6,"GOU":0.6,"GOOX":0.6,"MSFT":1.84,"MSFD":0.6,"META":1.92,"FBYY":0.6,"METU":0.6,"TSMY":0.6,"METW":0.6,"TSMZ":0.6,"03145":0.6,"STSM":0.6,"GOOW":0.6,"FBL":0.6,"METD":0.6,"TSMU":0.6,"GGLS":0.6,"00981":1.87,"GGLL":0.6,"TSMX":0.6},"content_text":"多只热门QDII产品的单日申购额度近日被压降至“地板级”。Wind数据显示，截至7月2日，全市场近半数QDII产品处于暂停申购或大额限购状态，其中“10元档”产品已增至12只。年内业绩排名前20的QDII中，有19只已设限严控规模。　　资金蜂拥而入的背后，是对全球半导体与AI算力产业链的押注。一季报显示，QDII基金在信息技术板块的配置比例已超三成。华泰柏瑞中韩半导体ETF、天弘全球高端制造A、易方达全球成长精选A等翻倍基，均将筹码重仓于这一赛道。　　然而，狂欢之下亦有暗流。受Meta出售算力传闻影响，全球科技股迎来大幅震荡，金鹰基金权益研究部宏观策略研究员金达莱受访称，受此消息冲击，海外市场芯片存储板块大幅跳水，核心标的遭遇资金猛烈抛售，进一步放大了全球科技赛道的恐慌情绪，但风险偏好并未系统性转弱，科技成长或仍是中期主线。　　“象征性申购”蔓延　　7月伊始，限购公告就纷至沓来。　　广发全球精选股票（QDII）宣布，自7月2日起，对产品A类及C类人民币份额调整个人投资者大额申购（含转换转入、定期定额和不定额投资）业务限额，单日单户额度不超过200元。　　这一纸公告，不过是近来QDII产品限购持续升级的冰山一角。6月底，易方达全球成长精选、国富全球科技互联人民币先后宣布降低大额限购金额，前者将单日额度从20元降至10元，后者则从100元降至10元。　　据第一财经不完全统计，最近两周内至少有20只QDII（仅计算初始基金，下同）调整限购额度，其中既有华宝纳斯达克精选从50万元降至1000元的“大手笔”，也有万家纳斯达克100指数从万元级别降至50元的“急刹车”。　　Wind数据显示，截至7月2日，在全市场已成立的335只QDII产品中，暂停大额申购的产品有125只，加上34只暂停申购的产品，受限产品总数达159只，占比近半（47.46%）。单日限购额在10元的“地板级”产品已增至12只，QDII市场“一基难求”的态势越发明显。　　如果将这份限购名单与业绩榜单对比，会发现两者有极高的重合度。在年内回报率排名前20的QDII产品中，仅1只开放申购，其余19只均处于大额限购或暂停申购的状态。其中，天弘全球高端制造A、易方达全球成长精选A、华夏移动互联人民币等翻倍基，限购额度从10元到300元不等。　　业绩越好，大门越窄，几乎成为了上半年基金的一大特色。观察这些绩优产品可以看到，它们大多都把筹码押向了AI算力产业链上的“硬科技”标的，精准踩中今年海内外核心行情主线。　　Wind数据显示，截至7月1日，华泰柏瑞中韩半导体ETF今年以来累计回报达124.72%，位居QDII产品收益榜榜首。其持仓囊括了中韩两国核心的半导体上市公司，如三星电子（005930.KS）、SK海力士（000660.KS）等韩国存储芯片龙头，寒武纪（688256.SH）、中芯国际（688981.SH）等A股热门标的。　　除此之外，天弘全球高端制造A、易方达全球成长精选A等翻倍基，同样将仓位重点放在半导体及硬件设备相关领域。二者均重仓了台积电（TSM.N）、TOWER半导体（TSEM.O）、LUMENTUM（LITE.O），以及中际旭创（300308.SZ）、新易盛（300502.SZ）等光模块龙头。　　从全行业持仓数据来看，QDII资金扎堆硬科技的趋势更为极致。基金一季报数据显示，全市场QDII基金在信息技术行业的投资市值合计达1863亿元，占比超过三成，涉及169只基金。其中7只产品的仓位超过七成。　　据第一财经统计，在QDII重仓的560只个股中，59只实现翻倍，而其中54只为信息技术个股，占比超九成。不过，昔日热门的“美股七姐妹”风光不再，行情彻底分化，涨幅最高的谷歌（GOOGL.O）的年内涨15.55%，微软（MSFT.O）同期跌超20%。　　AI主线还能走多远？　　然而，高拥挤度的交易往往伴随着高波动性。　　7月2日，因前一日晚间海外传出Meta出售算力的消息，全球股市共振回调。当日，韩国股市率先重挫，韩国综合指数（KS11.KS）、韩国KOSPI200（KOSPI200.KS）分别暴跌7.89%、8.67%。QDII重仓的三星电子下挫9%、SK海力士大跌14.57%。　　受此“利空”及外围市场巨震影响，A股亦未能幸免，上证指数、创业板指分别下跌2.03%、5.71%，科技成长赛道成为重灾区。申万通信、电子两大科技板块单日跌幅均超7%，东山精密（002384.SZ）、北方华创（002371.SZ）等24只相关个股跌停。　　对此，金达莱对第一财经表示，此前市场始终以“全球AI算力持续紧缺”为核心交易主线，支撑了半导体、存储、算力硬件板块的持续走高。而Meta的这一举动意味着科技大厂有算力过剩的可能，AI硬件产业链的成长估值逻辑受到严峻挑战，硬件端率先迎来估值修复回调。　　不过，金达莱也强调，A股的回调，或更多来自前期获利多头的了结及市场风格再平衡过程中的“阵痛”，而非CSP资本开支和AI计算需求的叙事转变。在她看来，近期高位资产波动加剧，但风险偏好并未系统性转弱。　　“虽然美伊缓和带动油价风险溢价回落，通胀再度恶化的压力有所缓解，但偏强的美国经济和就业数据促使实际利率走高和美元指数偏强，加息预期或仍会反复，进而对全球成长股估值形成压制。”金达莱分析称。　　招商基金资产配置与FOF投资部基金经理杨宇对第一财经分析称，今年来大类资产及各国股票相关性显著抬升，传统全天候式分散降波策略效果被削弱，其根源一是全球流动性逐步进入拐点，二是全球AI产业链与传统行业的极致分化。　　“接下来，权益侧会重点关注业绩兑现确定性强的全球AI产业链及其上游周期、资源品等。”杨宇判断，下半年成长与价值的极端风格分化大概率阶段性收敛，单一风格持续占优的胜率有所回落。　　“当前科技赛道交易拥挤度升至历史较高分位。”她也提醒，全球处在流动性宽松的后期，需要重点关注资产间相关性提升的风险，建议通过动态再平衡平滑风格轮动冲击，在存量博弈环境下优化组合风险收益比。　　尽管短期板块波动加剧，但机构对AI科技主线的长期逻辑并未动摇。　　“全球科技止盈盘累积较多，本身就需要良性结构调整，且美股调整已过半，只是A股节奏慢半拍且（下跌）速度过快。”前海开源基金对第一财经表示，本轮无论加息交易还是AI叙事担忧，都只是催化因素，核心还是止盈累积太多。　　该团队进一步表示，从科技主线逻辑看，最重要的中美科技政策、龙头科技投资都十分坚定，下游需求也在验证，长期逻辑证伪较远。另外，部分科技龙头算远期估值其实并不贵，估值未至异常极致水平。（文章来源：第一财经）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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