下半年，美股市场迎来“伟大轮动”

国际金融报07-02 19:42

美股上半年的上涨高度集中于少数科技股，而随着下半年开启，市场风格开始发生变化。　　2026年上半年，美股延续牛市行情，三大股指均录得强劲涨幅，其中，科技股尤其是半导体板块成为推动市场上涨的核心力量。　　不过，进入下半年首个交易日，随着芯片股集体回调、资金获利了结，市场开始显现从高估值科技股向蓝筹股、价值股以及此前落后板块轮动的迹象。上涨集中于少数科技股　　今年前6个月，道琼斯工业指数累计上涨...

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上涨集中于少数科技股　　今年前6个月，道琼斯工业指数累计上涨8.9%，创下自2021年以来最佳上半年表现；标普500指数上涨9.6%；纳斯达克综合指数上涨12.8%；小盘股罗素2000指数更是累计大涨近22%，创下自1991年以来最佳上半年表现。其中，科技、能源和工业板块表现尤为突出，而中小盘股整体跑赢大型股，显示市场上涨范围正在不断扩大。　　不过，从指数贡献来看，美股上半年的上涨依然高度集中于少数科技股。　　杰富瑞交易部门分析显示，2026年上半年，纳斯达克100指数约20%的涨幅几乎全部由10只股票贡献。　　其中，存储芯片制造商美光科技成为最大赢家，其股价在上半年飙升4倍，市值增至约1.3万亿美元，单只股票便贡献了纳斯达克100指数26%的涨幅，同时贡献了标普500指数17%的涨幅，成为推动两大指数上涨的最大功臣。　　除美光外，芯片产业链几乎包揽了指数贡献榜前列。超威半导体和英特尔分别贡献了纳斯达克100指数16%和14%的涨幅；半导体设备制造商应用材料、泛林集团和科磊分别贡献10%、9%和6%；闪迪和迈威尔科技各贡献5%，思科和西部数据则分别贡献4%。　　这一集中度在标普500指数中同样明显。杰富瑞分析师杰弗里·法武扎指出，如果将范围扩大到2026年上半年累计上涨近10%的标普500指数，可以看到一个非常相似的格局：仅10只股票便贡献了该指数78%的总回报。　　除了前述美光以17%的贡献率居于首位，Alphabet、英伟达和苹果分别贡献了8%、6%和5%的指数涨幅。 资金流向蓝筹股和价值股　　不过，随着下半年开启，市场风格开始发生变化。　　在经历2026年上半年累计超过80%的整体涨幅后，7月1日下半年伊始，半导体板块就遭遇明显获利了结，拖累纳斯达克综合指数收跌0.66%。其中，美光大跌逾10%，不过其年内累计涨幅仍超过260%；闪迪等芯片股也跌逾10%，显示此前涨幅巨大的科技股正面临短期调整压力。　　相比之下，道琼斯工业指数仅微跌0.03%。盘中，道指一度刷新历史新高，但随后随着人工智能概念受益股卡特彼勒回落近7%，指数涨幅有所收窄。　　市场人士认为，资金正在从估值较高的科技股流向传统蓝筹股和价值股。　　KKM金融公司创始人兼首席执行官杰夫·基尔伯格表示，进入第三季度，“伟大轮动”交易仍在持续，道指中那些经营稳健、估值相对合理的传统蓝筹股，正持续吸引从科技股获利了结后流出的资金。　　他认为，这种轮动十分健康，也反映出这轮已经持续4年的牛市正在由少数明星股推动，逐步演变为上涨范围更加广泛的市场行情。　　除了蓝筹股外，此前表现相对落后的软件板块也开始受到资金关注。　　法武扎指出，进入下半年，最明显的变化就是领涨股与落后股之间的轮动正在加速，部分此前涨幅落后的软件公司有望迎来估值修复，包括现在服务（ServiceNow）、赛富时（Salesforce）和财捷公司（Intuit）等企业。　　受古根海姆证券上调评级影响，现在服务和赛富时7月1日盘前均上涨约4%。古根海姆分析师约翰·迪福奇将赛富时评级由“中性”上调至“买入”时表示，尽管代理式人工智能的发展确实带来新的竞争风险，但市场目前对赛富时的预期已经过度悲观，股价所反映的风险程度与公司的实际基本面并不相符。（文章来源：国际金融报）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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