华尔街上调标普500指数目标位

第一财经06-30 10:52

周一美股全线反弹，上周因芯片股低迷，三大股指走出分化行情，并折射出两大市场信号：一是投资者对人工智能题材交易趋于谨慎；二是资金正在轮动，流向顺周期板块，市场行情开始扩散至更多行业。展望下半年，机构普遍上调了标普500指数的目标位，虽然短期动荡风险不容忽视，由人工智能带动的强劲盈利增长将助力市场迭创新高。加皇：目标8150点，防范AI板块获利了结加拿大皇家银行资本市场周一上调标普500指数12个月...

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正在轮动，流向顺周期板块，市场行情开始扩散至更多行业。展望下半年，机构普遍上调了标普500指数的目标位，虽然短期动荡风险不容忽视，由人工智能带动的强劲盈利增长将助力市场迭创新高。加皇：目标8150点，防范AI板块获利了结加拿大皇家银行资本市场周一上调标普500指数12个月目标点位，由此前7900点升至8150点。这家金融机构表示，企业盈利预期改善、经济环境持续向好，是本次上调的核心驱动因素。以今天收盘点位测算，更新后的目标价隐含约10%的涨幅。支撑本次调整最关键的因素是盈利前景改善。作为估值基准的2027年一季度自下而上一致盈利预期，相较于该行5月前次研判出现显著上修。与此同时，加拿大皇家银行小幅下调通胀预测，从3.3%降至3%，对应股市市盈率估值中枢获得小幅提振。该行仍维持惯例，在市场一致盈利预期基础上折价5%保守测算。由洛里・卡尔瓦西纳领衔的策略团队表示：“综合各类数据指标来看，从多个维度判断，美股未来一年具备上行基础。”在上调目标点位的同时，加拿大皇家银行列出多项需要重点关注的短期压制因素。当前市场对即将到来的财报季盈利预期已处于高位，或引发短期行情震荡。研究团队同时提示，半导体及其他AI概念股存在获利了结压力；其余风险还包括地缘军事冲突、2027年盈利预期下修、美国中期选举、美联储加息可能性。加拿大皇家银行预判，只要衰退概率维持低位、不出现大幅利率冲击，即便市场出现回调，调整幅度大概率仅在高点基础上下跌5%~10%区间。针对资金配置结构，加拿大皇家银行认为，近期发达海外市场、价值风格股票的强势行情仍有延续动能，但该行定义这两类机会均为阶段性交易机会，并非市场主线风格永久切换。策略团队预测，待本轮估值消化完成后，美国大盘成长股将重新夺回市场主导地位。小盘股方面，近期罗素2000指数频频刷新历史新高，该行维持中性评级：强劲的经济基本面、亮眼的盈利增速形成支撑，但高估值叠加加息环境天然不利于中小企业，对冲了上述利好。摩根大通：上调至7800点，警惕闪崩摩根大通策略团队表示，美股 “乐观上行情景”的实现条件正逐步成熟，但市场上行之路不会一帆风顺。摩根大通全球市场策略主管拉科斯-布亚斯牵头团队上周发布客户研报称，受人工智能资本开支规模近乎翻倍拉动，市场一致预期已上调2026年美股盈利增速，未来两年平均盈利增长预期约20%。小摩策略师称，这种全市场持续上调盈利预期的现象前所未有，历史上仅在经济冲击结束、衰退过后才会出现。叠加美伊达成和平协议的概率持续抬升，此前推演的全面乐观行情落地可能性加大，因此将标普500指数目标位由7600点上调至7800点。早在4月，摩根大通曾将指数目标下调至7200点，当时美伊冲突正如火如荼。摩根大通同步上调2026年标普500成分股每股收益预期至350美元，对2027年每股收益预测为390美元，低于市场一致预期，核心逻辑是AI相关定价权边际减弱的潜在风险。但拉科斯-布亚斯团队强调，指数冲击7800点的过程不会顺畅，市场存在多重阻碍：此前连续多季度企业盈利大幅超预期，已抬高二季报业绩考核门槛，企业想要在盈利、资本开支层面持续给出超预期表现难度显著提升。该行同时警示，动量交易赛道出现极致拥挤，尤其是二、三线AI题材这类低质投机成长板块。交易拥挤一旦出现资金反转，市场存在瞬时闪崩风险。“除此之外，未来数个季度股票供给将快速扩容，叠加货币政策存在进一步收紧可能，估值扩张空间会受到约束。”当前该行主推杠铃投资组合：一端布局优质成长股，另一端配置纯正AI赛道标的与低波动防御资产。“优质成长主线深度绑定 AI 产业，具备两位数内生增长、稳健资产负债表与稳定股东回报；低波动板块虽短期不受资金青睐，但可作为组合廉价对冲工具、分散单一风格风险。”摩根大通持续看好科技、AI上游配套公用事业与部分工业板块，同时建议增持军工、银行；医疗行业高细分成长赛道也逐步显现配置价值。若美伊和平协议落地，消费板块有望迎来超额收益。其他机构据第一财经记者不完全统计，6月以来还有多家机构发布看多预测报告。花旗预计标普500指数年末目标8100点，EPS预期350美元，市场上涨纯盈利驱动、不依赖估值扩张。资管奥本海默 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