小摩：料中国主要大型语言模型ARR今年增长约4至7倍

智通财经06-22

智通财经APP获悉，摩通发布研报称，中国AI生态系统远非简单复制海外AI股票。一方面，中国光模组/PCB/OSAT在全球供应链中扮演关键角色，龙头企业海外收入占比超过70%，成为捕捉全球8,000亿美元且持续增长AI算力支出的低成本、高弹性工具。另一方面，政策驱动的国产化周期创造了一条独立于全球科技波动的内生增长轨道，支撑2026-2029年国内AI算力资本开支大幅扩张，国内推理token需求至...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2645959012?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-06-22 09:16","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2645959012","market":"sh","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"小摩：料中国主要大型语言模型ARR今年增长约4至7倍","media":"智通财经","content":"<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，摩通发布研报称，中国AI生态系统远非简单复制海外AI股票。一方面，中国光模组/PCB/OSAT在全球供应链中扮演关键角色，龙头企业海外收入占比超过70%，成为捕捉全球8,000亿美元且持续增长AI算力支出的低成本、高弹性工具。另一方面，政策驱动的国产化周期创造了一条独立于全球科技波动的内生增长轨道，支撑2026-2029年国内AI算力资本开支大幅扩张，国内推理token需求至...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1456700.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>小摩：料中国主要大型语言模型ARR今年增长约4至7倍</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n小摩：料中国主要大型语言模型ARR今年增长约4至7倍\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-06-22 09:16 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1456700.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，摩通发布研报称，中国AI生态系统远非简单复制海外AI股票。一方面，中国光模组/PCB/OSAT在全球供应链中扮演关键角色，龙头企业海外收入占比超过70%，成为捕捉全球8,000亿美元且持续增长AI算力支出的低成本、高弹性工具。另一方面，政策驱动的国产化周期创造了一条独立于全球科技波动的内生增长轨道，支撑2026-2029年国内AI算力资本开支大幅扩张，国内推理token需求至...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1456700.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2430703095.HKD","symbol_name":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (HKD) INC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1456700.html","article_id":"2645959012","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2645959012","pubTimestamp":1782090980,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"stock_zhitongcaijing","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"摩通在中国AI生态系统的首选股票。报告指，中国AI采用仍早于全球同行，但政策主导的扩散议程和大规模基础设施建设创造了可信的追赶路径。全球LLM商业化正快速扩张，摩通预测中国主要LLM的ARR于2026年增长约4至7倍。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"LU2430703095.HKD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4\" (HKD) INC","LU2746668461.USD":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS \"AA\" (USD) ACC","LU1974910355.USD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS USD","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","JPX":"Defiance Daily Target 2X Long JPM ETF","LU2430703178.SGD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (SGDHDG) INC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","IE00BDCRKT87.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU0203345920.USD":"SCHRODER ISF QEP GLB ACT. VL \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0208291251.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I -  GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0267386448.USD":"FIDELITY FIRST ALL COUNTRY WORLD \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU1496350502.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED DYNAMIC \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0211331839.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL GLB DISCOVERY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2505996681.GBP":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (GBPHDG) INC","BK4110":"抵押房地产投资信托","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","ARR":"ARMOUR住宅房地产公司","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","02513":"智谱","JPMO":"JPM期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","LU0320765646.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Income A MDIS SGD-H1","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999002224.SGD":"Allianz Global High Payout SGD","LU1267930490.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"AS\" (SGD) INC A","LU0942090050.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD)  INC","LU2264538146.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU2552382058.USD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2242649171.HKD":"FIDELITY FUNDS GLOBAL THEMATIC OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2357627491.SGD":"TRP GLOBAL VALUE EQUITY \"AH\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0256863902.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"AT\" (USD) ACC","JPO":"JPM期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU2381873111.SGD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL EQUITY HIGH INCOME \"A6\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0964807845.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME & GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1629891620.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG2\" (H2-HKD) INC","LU2417539215.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMF\" (USD) INC","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","IE000M9KFDE8.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LARGE CAP VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"translate_title":"Xiaomo: ARR, China's main large-scale language model, is expected to increase by about 4 to 7 times this year","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"JPX":0.6,"02513":0.9,"JPO":0.6,"JPMO":0.6,"ARR":1.5},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，摩通发布研报称，中国AI生态系统远非简单复制海外AI股票。一方面，中国光模组/PCB/OSAT在全球供应链中扮演关键角色，龙头企业海外收入占比超过70%，成为捕捉全球8,000亿美元且持续增长AI算力支出的低成本、高弹性工具。另一方面，政策驱动的国产化周期创造了一条独立于全球科技波动的内生增长轨道，支撑2026-2029年国内AI算力资本开支大幅扩张，国内推理token需求至2030年复合年增长率达330%，以及2027/2028年国产GPU支援AI服务器销售额分别增长41%及65%。此外，除少数例外，中国AI企业在AI价值链各环节的未来12个月市销率估值已与全球AI领导者处于同一水平。高增长、强劲盈利可见度与吸引人估值三者罕见结合，使中国AI成为全球投资策略中差异化alpha的重要来源。摩通在中国AI生态系统的首选股票。 报告指，中国AI采用仍早于全球同行，但政策主导的扩散议程和大规模基础设施建设创造了可信的追赶路径。全球LLM商业化正快速扩张，摩通预测中国主要LLM的ARR(年度经常性收入)于2026年增长约4至7倍。中国LLM供应商正以价值导向的定价策略参与竞争，助力全球市占率提升。  该行认为，核心挑战在于货币化可持续性，快速降价和低转换成本可能压缩利润率，若缺乏持续的最先进SOTA表现和工作流锁定，估值支撑将减弱。摩通认为定价是估值溢价的最重要信号，因此维持对智谱(02513) “增持”评级。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.44.1","shortVersion":"4.44.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2645959012","isCrawlerRequest":true}