全面拥抱大通信浪潮

格隆汇06-23

2026年6月，A股科技产业迎来标志性拐点：光模块龙头中际旭创市值一度超越老登龙头贵州茅台，成为AI时代资产权重重构的最直观注脚。这并非单一标的的行情，而是整个大通信板块价值重估的起点。通信已跃居AI产业的第一核心圈层。站在中报披露窗口，业绩确定性成为行情的核心锚点。01 光通信：AI算力的黄金赛道光通信是本轮AI行情的绝对核心，而光模块又是其中确定性最强、业绩兑现最早的环节。从产业基本面看，...

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CPO则显著高于传统可插拔方案，将为头部厂商打开全新的业绩弹性空间。光模块的爆发沿着产业链向上游全面传导，光芯片、光材料、光器件均迎来需求井喷，国产替代窗口同步打开。在光材料端，传统EML、CW激光器以磷化铟衬底为核心材料，当前供需处于紧平衡状态，云南锗业等厂商已启动磷化铟衬底提价。进入3.2T以上超高速率时代，薄膜铌酸锂凭借优异的电光调制性能应运而生，成为新的增长极，相关厂商将长期受益。在光芯片端，高端EML、CW光源海外供给持续紧缺，头部厂商订单排期已至2028年，整体供需缺口超30%。国产替代正成为核心主线：源杰科技作为CW光源国产龙头，70毫瓦产品已大规模出货，100毫瓦产品实现批量交付，一季度净利润同比增长超10倍；长光华芯100G EML已能量产，200GEML预计四季度小批量出货，产能扩张节奏清晰；仕佳光子则依托光源、MPO、AWG三大产品矩阵，持续完善产品布局。在光器件端，MPO连接器的市场空间被市场长期低估。单只800G光模块对应16芯MPO连接器价值约50美元，与光模块配比接近1:1。仅800G+1.6T光模块就对应上亿只的需求量，叠加CPO、OCS等新技术带来的增量，整体市场规模可达数十亿美元。新技术方向上，CPO与OCS正在打开远期成长天花板。CPO通过将光引擎与交换机封装在一起，有效解决了1.6T/3.2T时代的功耗与带宽瓶颈，是英伟达主推的下一代技术路线。预计2026年CPO交换机出货超万台，2027年有望达到10-30万台，将带动CW光源、MPO连接器等环节实现数倍级增长。OCS（全光交换机）则是谷歌阵营的核心组网技术，谷歌已明确2026年采购约1.5万台300端口OCS交换机，英伟达也将其定位为未来AI工厂的核心网络架构。当前OCS仍处于试点向规模化过渡的阶段，短期业绩贡献有限，但长期一旦大规模落地，将带来全新的增量市场。值得重点强调的是谷歌产业链的超预期机会。一方面，谷歌自身大模型用户数持续爆发，资本开支逐季上调；另一方面，Anthropic二季度已实现盈利，AI正循环效应显著，将持续加大算力投入，而谷歌TPU是其核心算力供给。需求端双巨头加持，供给端谷歌正积极协调产能突破瓶颈，TPU相关的光模块、OCS、服务器电源、液冷等全产业链都将深度受益。02 光纤光缆：涨价潮持续演绎如果说光模块是AI的“高速接口”，那么光纤光缆就是算力互联的“信息高速公路”。开源通信团队是市场上最早底部挖掘光纤涨价逻辑的卖方，而当前行业的景气度仍在持续超预期。价格端呈现全线上行态势：G.652.D（A2）光纤价格已回暖至210-230元/芯公里，其中200微米细径A2光纤价值量更高，达到270-280元/芯公里。随着200微米产品占比持续提升，叠加5月以来无人机需求回暖、6月行业需求向好，A2光纤整体价格仍有进一步上行空间。G.651（A1）光纤价格边际提升至165元/芯公里以上，核心原因是大量产能转向高毛利的A2产品，导致A1产能结构性紧缺，叠加国内外云厂商需求持续提升，共同推动价格走高。地缆价格则维持在100-110元/芯公里的高位区间，保持相对稳定。供给端的刚性约束，是本轮涨价能够持续的核心支撑。海外厂商扩产极为谨慎：康宁重点扩产MPO相关产能，并未大规模扩张光纤与光棒；长飞仅规划600吨扩产，整体增量有限。国内部分厂商虽有扩产计划，但光棒建设周期长、工艺壁垒高，2026年下半年很难有大规模有效产能释放，大部分新增供给要到2027年才能逐步落地。从业绩节奏看，二季度光纤光缆企业已进入业绩兑现阶段，价格上涨的红利将逐步体现在报表中。亨通光电、中天科技、长飞光纤、烽火通信等行业龙头业绩确定性最强，远东股份、通鼎互联、永鼎股份等中小厂商则具备更强的业绩弹性。03 液冷：谷歌链格局优化打开成长空间液冷是AI算力散热的必然选择，也是大通信板块中弹性极大的赛道，但当前市场对其业绩节奏仍有分歧。之所以液冷板块整体涨幅落后于光模块，核心原因在于业绩兑现节奏不同：谷歌液冷订单发货主要集中在三季度，Q3将迎来部分业绩兑现，Q4业绩确定性更强，当前仍处于业绩真空期，市场关注度相对有限。但产业层面的积极变化正在持续累积，最核心的是谷歌供应链的竞争格局正在向国产厂商倾斜。此前台资、美资、日资厂商是谷歌液冷的主要供应商，但当前这些厂商在产品性能和产能上都已跟不上谷歌的扩张节奏，份额持续缩小，这为以英维克为代表的国产厂商带来了切入机遇，其在谷歌的份额有望持续提升。市场空间层面，谷歌液冷的长期弹性极大：2027年谷歌TPU对应的液冷市场空间超千亿元，2028年更是有望达到三千亿元级别。参考光模块龙头在谷歌供应链的份额稳定性，谁能在当前阶段抢占更多份额，谁就能在明后年享受最大的业绩弹性。此外，谷歌液冷还是典型的“通胀链”：CDU功率从1.4兆瓦提升至2.2兆瓦，未来还将向3.3兆瓦升级，冷板、转接头等部件价值量也持续提升，技术迭代快速，进一步打开了价值成长空间。公司方面，行业龙头英维克，亚马逊核心供应商申菱环境，汽车热管理转型龙头银轮股份，以及泵环节的飞龙股份、大元泵业。建议在三季度业绩兑现窗口前开始关注。风险提示海外产业与贸易政策波动的风险；AI应用发展不及预期的风险；主要CSP厂商CAPEX下行的风险;光通信技术路径变更的风险等。投资思路站在当前时点，大通信板块的行情绝非短期主题炒作，而是AI算力基础设施价值重估的长周期行情。不同赛道有不同的业绩释放节奏，投资者可沿时间线分步布局：当前至中报期：优先关注业绩确定性最强的光模块、光纤光缆龙头。三季度起：逐步关注液冷板块，把握业绩拐点带来的估值修复行情，重点跟踪谷歌供应链的份额变化与订单落地情况；从光模块龙头强势崛起，到全产业链业绩持续超预期，通信板块正在经历历史性的价值重估。它不再是市场眼中的“传统基建”，而是AI时代最核心的“算力底座”。如果，你对产业投资感到困惑：如果，你对如何找到产业龙头和潜力公司感到迷茫；如果，你对板块波动感到无所适从；那么，请扫码加入我们，获取更详细的产业链分析和投资策略，跟随格隆汇研究院一起，在AI的浪潮中把握机会，分享产业革命的红利吧！免责声明：本文版权属于北京格隆汇投资顾问有限公司投研团队(曾润:A0160623020001)整理，本报告基于独立、客观、公正和审慎的原则制作，信息均来源于公开资料并予以合法合理适当的采集摘要与编辑。股市有风险，入市需谨慎。本文中的任何投资建议均不作为您投资买卖的依据，您须独立作出投资决策，风险自担。任何单位或个人未经本公司许可，擅自发布、复制、传播或网络发表、转载等均视为侵权，本公司将依法追究侵权责任。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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