ZFX山海证券:制造业回暖压制金价表现

市场资讯20:36

6月19日，美国费城联储制造业指数在6月明显反弹，令金价延续承压态势。ZFX山海证券表示，数据从上月的负值回升至10.3，高于市场预期，显示制造业活动和订单表现有所改善，市场因此进一步降低了对宽松节奏过快回归的押注。

　　金价本就处在利率预期偏紧的背景下震荡，宏观数据回暖又进一步削弱了避险和降息双重支撑。ZFX山海证券认为，当新增订单、出货与就业分项同步改善时，市场更容易把黄金视为需要等待新催化的资产，而不是立即回流的方向。

　　对贵金属而言，当前压力主要来自实际利率和美元的联动，只要经济数据保持韧性，黄金短线就可能维持高位整理偏弱的格局。若后续其他地区数据继续配合，金价修复斜率仍会受到限制。

　　后续阶段，ZFX山海证券预计市场将继续围绕美国经济数、美联储表态与美元方向交易，黄金能否重新站稳更高区间，仍要看宏观数据是否出现新的边际变化。

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