市场聚焦新任美联储主席首次亮相，华尔街对未来利率路径“各执一词”

智通财经06-17

6月17日，在美联储即将公布最新利率决议之际，市场对于未来货币政策走向的分歧正不断加大。一方面，投资者普遍预计美联储将在本周议息会议上维持利率不变；另一方面，对于未来几个月究竟是降息还是加息，华尔街却出现了截然不同的判断。从债券和利率衍生品市场的交易情况来看，目前既有投资者押注明年降息，也有资金开始布局年内加息，市场对未来利率路径的看法可谓“各执一词”。市场普遍认为，美联储在周三结束的议息会议上...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2644795822?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09a7b30204158feaaaf0f4efc19f31f","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-06-17 06:35","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2644795822","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"市场聚焦新任美联储主席首次亮相，华尔街对未来利率路径“各执一词”","media":"智通财经","content":"<div>\n<p>6月17日，在美联储即将公布最新利率决议之际，市场对于未来货币政策走向的分歧正不断加大。一方面，投资者普遍预计美联储将在本周议息会议上维持利率不变；另一方面，对于未来几个月究竟是降息还是加息，华尔街却出现了截然不同的判断。从债券和利率衍生品市场的交易情况来看，目前既有投资者押注明年降息，也有资金开始布局年内加息，市场对未来利率路径的看法可谓“各执一词”。市场普遍认为，美联储在周三结束的议息会议上...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1455250.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>市场聚焦新任美联储主席首次亮相，华尔街对未来利率路径“各执一词”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n市场聚焦新任美联储主席首次亮相，华尔街对未来利率路径“各执一词”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-06-17 06:35 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1455250.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>6月17日，在美联储即将公布最新利率决议之际，市场对于未来货币政策走向的分歧正不断加大。一方面，投资者普遍预计美联储将在本周议息会议上维持利率不变；另一方面，对于未来几个月究竟是降息还是加息，华尔街却出现了截然不同的判断。从债券和利率衍生品市场的交易情况来看，目前既有投资者押注明年降息，也有资金开始布局年内加息，市场对未来利率路径的看法可谓“各执一词”。市场普遍认为，美联储在周三结束的议息会议上...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1455250.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"UDN","symbol_name":"做空美元指数-PowerShares","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1455250.html","article_id":"2644795822","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09a7b30204158feaaaf0f4efc19f31f"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2644795822","pubTimestamp":1781649300,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"stock_zhitongcaijing","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"市场普遍认为，美联储在周三结束的议息会议上按兵不动几乎已成定局。相比利率决定本身，投资者更关注的是新任美联储主席沃什将在会后举行的首次新闻发布会。由于沃什上月刚刚接替鲍威尔出任美联储主席，市场对其政策风格仍缺乏足够了解。换句话说，投资者越来越倾向于认为美联储会在较长时间内维持当前利率水平。一方面，通胀仍高于美联储目标。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"UDN":"做空美元指数-PowerShares","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","VCIT":"美国中期公司债-Vanguard","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","BOND":"Pimco Total Return ETF","USHY":"iShares Broad USD High Yield Corporate Bond ETF","QLD":"2倍做多纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","SPUU":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 2x Shares","SPDN":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X Shares","QQQM":"NASDAQ100指数ETF-Invesco","09834":"安硕纳指一百—U","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","MUB":"美国市政债ETF-iShares","TBIL":"US Treasury 3 Month Bill ETF","BSV":"短期国债指数ETF-Vanguard","BIL":"债券指数ETF-SPDR Barclays美国1-3月国债","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","FAZ":"三倍做空金融ETF-Direxion","03034":"南方纳指一百","AGG":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays综合国债","07261":"华夏两倍做多纳斯达克100","VOO":"Vanguard标普500ETF","SHV":"美国短期国债ETF-iShares","SCHO":"嘉信短期美国国债ETF","DBND":"DoubleLine Opportunistic Bond ETF","GPIQ":"GOLDMAN SACHS NASDAQ 100 CORE PREMIUM INCOME ETF","BOXX":"ALPHA ARCHITECT 1-3 MONTH BOX ETF","QQQX":"Nuveen NASDAQ 100 Dynamic Overwrite","SPXL":"三倍做多标普500ETF-Direxion","TBT":"债券20+美国债指数ETF-ProShares两倍做空","07266":"南方两倍做多纳指","VCSH":"美国短期公司债-Vanguard","MMAX":"iShares Large Cap Max Buffer Mar ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","TYO":"3倍做空7-10年期国债ETF-Direxion","PBDC":"Putnam Bdc Income ETF","SPXS":"三倍做空标普500ETF-Direxion","NGHT":"Nicholas Bitcoin and Treasuries AfterDark ETF","09086":"华夏纳指-U","QMAR":"FT Vest Nasdaq-100 Buffer ETF - March","QDEC":"FT Vest Nasdaq-100 Buffer ETF - December","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","DIA":"道琼斯ETF","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","SPY":"标普500ETF","YSPY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST SPY ETF","EDV":"美国延期国债ETF-Vanguard","TIP":"通胀债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays","TQQY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST QQQ ETF","02834":"安硕纳指一百","SMAX":"ISHARES LARGE CAP MAX BUFFER SEP ETF","03455":"景顺QQQ","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","DMAX":"ISHARES LARGE CAP MAX BUFFER DEC ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","07522":"FI二华夏纳一百","SPYH":"Neos S&P 500 Hedged Equity Income ETF","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","NJAN":"Innovator Growth-100 Power Buffer ETF - January","VGIT":"中期国债ETF-Vanguard","07568":"FI二南方纳指","SPYM":"投资组合标普500指数ETF-SPDR","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","SPYQ":"2倍做多SPY Quarterly ETF-Tradr","NJUL":"Innovator Growth-100 Power Buffer ETF - July","VGLT":"美国长期国债ETF-Vanguard","MINT":"PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Exchange-Traded Fund","SPYU":"MAX S&P 500 4X Leveraged ETN","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","UBT":"债券20+美国债-ProShares两倍做多",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PSQ":"做空纳斯达克100指数ETF-ProShares","VGSH":"美国短期国债ETF-Vanguard","TMF":"3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QID":"两倍做空纳斯达克指数ETF-ProShares","03086":"华夏纳指","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","HYG":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx高收益公司债","TLH":"iShares安硕10-20年国债ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares","KBE":"银行指数ETF-SPDR KBW","GOLY":"Strategy Shares Gold Enhanced Yield ETF","JPST":"JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF","UUP":"美元ETF-PowerShares DB","NOCT":"Innovator Growth-100 Power Buffer ETF - October","TLTW":"iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Buywrite Strategy ETF","NAPR":"Innovator Growth-100 Power Buffer ETF - April","HIBL":"Direxion Daily S&P 500 High Beta Bull 3X Shares","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数","SKRE":"TUTTLE CAPITAL DAILY 2X INVERSE REGIONAL BANKS ETF","GBIL":"Goldman Sachs Access Treasury 0-1 Year ETF"},"translate_title":"Market Spotlight New Fed Chair Debuts, Wall Street 'Divided' on Future Rate Path","themeId":"fa18e8b5a9154df3a411f17d56c210b3","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ff5acc9e5346ecd8263ab6aa9bdfc9f","symbols_score_info":{"HYG":1.5,"BSV":1.5,"HIBL":0.6,"SCHO":1.5,"07522":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"03455":0.6,"MUB":1.5,"NJUL":0.6,"KBE":1.5,"SHY":1.5,"IEI":1.5,"VGSH":1.5,"IVV":0.6,".DJI":2,"USHY":1.5,"03034":0.6,"FAZ":1.5,"MINT":1.5,"02834":0.6,"BIL":1.5,"QDEC":0.6,"SPYH":0.6,"UDN":1.5,"TQQY":0.6,"NAPR":0.6,"TLTW":1.5,"SHV":1.5,"YSPY":0.6,"09834":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"VOO":1.5,"NJAN":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"TBT":1.5,"07568":0.6,"AGG":1.5,"BOND":1.5,"DBND":1.5,"DXD":0.6,"GOLY":1.5,"NOCT":0.6,"GBIL":1.5,"SPUU":0.6,"TMF":1.5,"UPRO":0.6,".IXIC":2,"IEF":1.5,"SPY":1.5,"DMAX":0.6,"EDV":1.5,".SPX":2,"VGIT":1.5,"07266":0.6,"MMAX":0.6,"TYO":1.5,"NDX":2,"QMAR":0.6,"NGHT":1.5,"PSQ":0.6,"SPYU":0.6,"TLT":1.5,"UUP":1.5,"TIP":1.5,"SPDN":0.6,"07261":0.6,"UBT":1.5,"09086":0.6,"03086":0.6,"SMAX":0.6,"VCIT":1.5,"BOXX":1.5,"VCSH":1.5,"QQQX":0.6,"TLH":1.5,"PBDC":1.5,"QQQ":0.6,"SH":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"GOVT":1.5,"GPIQ":0.6,"SPYQ":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"DIA":0.6,"BND":1.5,"DDM":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"QQQM":0.6,"TBIL":1.5,"VGLT":1.5,"JPST":1.5,"SKRE":1.5,"TQQQ":0.6,"SPYM":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SPXS":0.6},"content_text":"6月17日，在美联储即将公布最新利率决议之际，市场对于未来货币政策走向的分歧正不断加大。一方面，投资者普遍预计美联储将在本周议息会议上维持利率不变；另一方面，对于未来几个月究竟是降息还是加息，华尔街却出现了截然不同的判断。从债券和利率衍生品市场的交易情况来看，目前既有投资者押注明年降息，也有资金开始布局年内加息，市场对未来利率路径的看法可谓“各执一词”。市场普遍认为，美联储在周三结束的议息会议上按兵不动几乎已成定局。相比利率决定本身，投资者更关注的是新任美联储主席沃什将在会后举行的首次新闻发布会。由于沃什上月刚刚接替鲍威尔出任美联储主席，市场对其政策风格仍缺乏足够了解。美国银行利率策略主管Mark Cabana表示：“市场目前缺乏明确共识，很大程度上是因为沃什对于投资者而言仍然是一个相对陌生的人物。”他认为，目前市场定价实际上反映了各种不同观点同时存在的状态。近期市场环境出现明显变化。美国与伊朗计划于本周五在瑞士正式签署临时和平协议，推动国际油价跌至近三个月低点。能源价格回落缓解了市场对于通胀持续上升的担忧，也使部分投资者重新开始讨论未来降息的可能性。不过，市场并未因此形成一致看法。不少投资者认为，即使油价回落，美国经济和就业市场依然保持强劲，美联储仍有可能进一步收紧政策。过去一周，与美联储利率预期相关的期权交易量大幅增加，一度较平时高出50%。但值得注意的是，新增交易并未集中在某一个方向。部分投资者押注美联储最快将在今年年底或明年初加息。与此同时，也有投资者仍然相信未来会降息，只是将降息时间推迟到了明年上半年。Constitution Capital利率交易主管Jeff Schuh表示：“市场并不是放弃了降息预期，而是认为降息可能需要等待更长时间。”换句话说，投资者越来越倾向于认为美联储会在较长时间内维持当前利率水平。不仅市场交易员意见不一，各大机构对于未来利率走势的预测也差异巨大。PGIM本周预计，美联储今年可能连续加息三次。法国巴黎银行则认为，美联储将在12月开始启动加息，并累计加息三次。而花旗集团(C.US)首席美国经济学家Andrew Hollenhorst则持完全相反观点，认为美联储今年仍有降息可能。如此大的预测分歧在过去几年并不常见，也反映出当前美国经济正处于一个关键转折阶段。一方面，通胀仍高于美联储目标。另一方面，中东局势缓和、油价回落又可能减轻未来价格压力。与此同时，经济增长和就业市场依然展现较强韧性，使政策制定者面临更加复杂的平衡难题。从债券市场持仓情况来看，投资者整体态度依然偏谨慎。摩根大通最新调查显示，截至6月15日当周，投资者削减了部分看涨美国国债的仓位，整体立场重新回到中性水平。与此同时，不少交易员仍在为长期国债价格下跌风险购买保险，这意味着市场对于未来利率进一步上升仍保持警惕。加拿大皇家银行利率策略师Izaac Brook表示：“总体来看，目前市场在会议前的仓位并不重，但略微偏向看空债券、看涨利率。”不过他同时指出，如果沃什在新闻发布会上释放偏鸽派信号，市场对未来加息的预期可能迅速降温，从而推动债券价格反弹。对于投资者而言，本次议息会议最大的看点已经不再是利率决定本身，而是新任主席沃什如何描述未来政策方向。美国银行分析师Meghan Swiber和Eleanor Xiao认为，沃什最终释放的信息可能比市场预期更加鹰派。不过，在油价回落、美伊冲突降温以及通胀前景仍存在不确定性的背景下，市场目前显然还没有形成统一判断。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"CCBot/2.0 (https://commoncrawl.org/faq/)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.44.1","shortVersion":"4.44.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2644795822","isCrawlerRequest":true}