沃什首秀“放鹰”：美联储年内第四次维持利率不变，但近半数官员倾向重启加息

新京报08:13

当地时间6月17日，美国联邦储备委员会（简称“美联储”）宣布，继续将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在3.5%至3.75%之间不变，这是今年连续第四次维持利率不变。此次利率决议公布前，芝商所FedWatch工具显示，美联储维持利率不变的概率为99.6%，此次会议结果符合市场预期，决议获FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）委员全票通过。沃什的首秀仍重在改革此次美联储议息会议是新任美联储主席凯文·沃什（Kevin ...

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Warsh）主持的首场议息会议。因此这场会议更被看作是观察“沃什时代”货币政策框架、沟通机制与缩表路径的核心窗口。沃什宣布，将对美联储的运作进行全面改革，将成立五个特别工作组，分别负责美联储的沟通、资产负债表、数据来源、生产力和就业和通胀框架等，预计此项改革将于今年年底前陆续公布结论。具体来看，负责美联储沟通的工作组将讨论如何改进美联储沟通的形式与功能，负责资产负债表的工作组将评估当前充足准备金制度以及美联储资产负债表构成的利弊与风险，并评估货币政策实施与操作的替代框架。负责经济数据的工作组目标是提供更准确、更相关、更具有时效性、更具可操作性（可能是最重要维度）的数据。负责评估生产率和就业的工作组将评估包括AI在内的新技术对就业和通胀的影响。负责通胀框架改革的工作组将研究通胀驱动因素，并权衡在变化的经济中实现物价稳定的各种思路。此次美联储官方政策声明也风格大变，本次声明仅有约130字的字数，相比4月议息会议的341字缩减了62%。也远低于上任美联储主席鲍威尔时期平均在300字左右政策声明字数。此外，本次政策声明删除了以往暗示“视数据调整立场”及“准备在适当时调整货币政策”等惯用措辞，仅重申“FOMC将实现物价稳定目标”。其次，沃什还在答记者提问上做出了不少重要改变。对于记者关于加息和降息的诱导式提问，沃什直言除了声明本身无话可说，将来的新闻发布会将有更少的即兴发挥，并暗示不准备在下次会议之前给出过多预测和指引。沃什还暗示，每次FOMC会议后都开记者会的惯例可能被调整，未来仅在有重要信息需要传达时才会召开新闻发布会。美联储内部态度急转，近半数FOMC官员倾向重启加息此次FOMC会议披露的点阵图显示，19名美联储官员中，有18人提交了点阵图预测。沃什在新闻发布会上证实，他本人并未给出任何预测，称“提供点阵图对执行政策并没有帮助”，不过他也表示鼓励其他同事继续提交包括点阵图在内的经济预测。在提交点阵图预测的18人中，9人预计今年年底前至少加息一次，3月FOMC会议支持加息的人数为零。这9人中，1人支持大幅加息75个基点（bp），5人支持大幅加息50个基点（bp），1人支持大幅加息55个基点（bp）。另外8人认为应维持利率不变，仅1人认为可能降息25个基点（bp）。在通胀方面，沃什指出，实现2%通胀目标的承诺是坚定、一致且明确的，美联储已经五年未能实现通胀目标，现在要着手纠正。美联储同时发布的经济预测摘要显示，美联储将今年个人消费支出价格指数涨幅预测中值从3月的2.7%大幅提升至3.6%，对今年核心通胀的预测中值从2.7%提升至3.3%。对今年美国经济增长率预期则从此前的2.4%下调为2.2%。据芝商所FedWatch显示，市场预计美联储7月加息25个基点（bp）的概率从前一日的8.5%上行到38.5%，9月加息的概率从前一日的接近30%上行到65%以上。12月加息的概率则从前一日的将近60%上行到86%以上。受FOMC会议透露出的明显鹰派倾向影响，当日美国股市三大股指全线收跌，其中标普500指数、纳斯达克指数均跌超1%。贵金属市场亦全线跳水，伦敦现货黄金一度跌超2%，最终收跌1.66%，收报4259美元/盎司，现货白银跌近3%；美元指数则大涨0.8%以上，美国国债遭到大幅抛售。对于金融市场的波动，沃什似乎无意稳定。沃什表示，金融市场应该自己对数据进行反应，而不是过于猜测美联储的想法，这样市场的运转效率反而更高。金融市场价格应该反映真实的经济情况，从而引导央行行长决策，而不是反过来央行引导金融市场定价。新京报贝壳财经记者 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