OEXN:油价回落仍看库存变化

市场资讯06-19 20:40

6月19日，国际油价在本周明显回落，市场开始快速压缩此前的风险溢价。OEXN表示，布伦特油价跌破每桶77美元后，交易情绪转向乐观，部分资金押注航运恢复将带来更多供应回流，但现阶段的库存数据并没有完全支持这种单边判断。

　　从供需细节看，OEXN认为当前更值得关注的是全球原油库存仍在下降，美国商业原油库存近几周持续回落，库欣地区库存也处于偏低水平。这意味着即便运输条件改善，实际供应恢复节奏仍可能慢于价格反应速度。

　　此外，航运保险、船运安排和部分产能重启都需要时间，油市并不是在消息落地后就能立刻恢复常态。若库存继续下降，油价在快速回调后仍可能迎来阶段性修复，尤其是在现货结构保持偏紧的情况下。

　　综合来看，OEXN预计短线油价会在情绪修复与基本面验证之间反复拉锯，后续若库存降幅延续、现货流通没有明显放量，市场对供应宽松的定价可能需要重新校准。

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