HALO交易回归？政策引爆稀土，千亿龙头两连板！

格隆汇06-16

美伊协议在望，新一轮HALO行情有望重启。眼下，科技赛道成为反弹核心主线，PCB、CPO等AI硬科技扛起了大旗。而在AI赋能之下，稀土、有色金属等周期板块也迎来共振反弹。周二，港A稀土、小金属概念爆发；厦门坞业两连板，市值达到1245亿元。A股有研新材、华宏科技、宁波韵升、盛和资源、三祥新材、中科三环等多股涨停，中国稀土涨超5%，港股金力永磁涨超5%。政策引爆！今日行情直接导火索是政策催化落地。...

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The policy detonates rare earths, and hundreds of billions of leaders have two consecutive boards!","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"159715":1.5,"600206":0.9,"600366":0.9,"600392":0.9,"600549":0.9,"603663":0.9,"002645":0.9,"06680":0.9,"000970":0.9,"REMX":1.5,"000831":0.9,"SETM":1.5,"HALO":1.5},"content_text":"美伊协议在望，新一轮HALO行情有望重启。眼下，科技赛道成为反弹核心主线，PCB、CPO等AI硬科技扛起了大旗。而在AI赋能之下，稀土、有色金属等周期板块也迎来共振反弹。周二，港A稀土、小金属概念爆发；厦门坞业两连板，市值达到1245亿元。A股有研新材、华宏科技、宁波韵升、盛和资源、三祥新材、中科三环等多股涨停，中国稀土涨超5%，港股金力永磁涨超5%。政策引爆！今日行情直接导火索是政策催化落地。日前，《矿产资源法实施条例》正式落地。金、钼、稀土、钴、锂、镓、锗、钨等36种矿产被纳入战略性矿产目录。这进一步强化了对战略性矿产资源的管控预期。全球地缘博弈加剧，作为\"工业维生素\"的稀土，在新能源、军工、电子等高端制造领域更是不可替代。在政策持续收紧下，资源不再是传统周期品，而是具备国家战略属性的稀缺筹码，估值体系迎来重塑。另外在AI算力驱动下，\"工业味精\"变成\"算力金属\"。今年来，在出口管制、供给意外收缩等因素影响下，与AI算力深度绑定的多种小金属价格持续高涨。过去半年，钽锭上涨158%，铟价上涨约60%，锡价涨超40%。以稀土为例，新能源汽车、风电、节能家电构成稳定基本盘，人形机器人和低空经济则成为中长期增量核心。机构测算2026-2028年全球氧化镨钕供需缺口将逐年扩大至2.1万吨。稀土、小金属板块正演绎\"估值与业绩双升\"的逻辑。今年一季度，国内行业核心龙头企业迎来净利润同比大幅翻倍的业绩兑现。其中，稀土龙头北方稀土一季度净利润同比大增超110%，中国稀土一季度归母净利润同比增长 90.8%，中稀有色同比暴增超260%，厦门钨业同比增长超189%。HALO交易再来美伊停战预期，HALO交易回归。目前，美伊已就停战谅解备忘录达成一致，拟于6月19日在瑞士签署，霍尔木兹海峡将着手恢复通航。若协议落地，供应链断裂风险下降，全球制造业开支有望回升，美元指数也更可能重回弱势。而\"美元回落+制造业高景气\"正是年初HALO交易首次盛行时的行情底色。当前市场资金逻辑清晰：AI产业扩张离不开底层硬件，硬件生产完全依赖稀土、小金属等基础原料。HALO 资源赛道既是科技产业上游刚需，也是对冲科技板块波动的安全配置。本次爆发标志着 HALO 交易主线重回市场舞台中央。霍尔木兹海峡若恢复通航，全球贸易与制造业活动正常化，稀土与小金属的需求预期将迅速修复。国金证券表示，全面看好AI赋能的锡稀土钨钼。其中，氧化镝（重稀土）或受益MLCC拉动，价格底部回升趋势显著。从年初至今来看，价格中枢不断上抬，或与2024-2025年发布的供给侧文件相关性较大，行业供改持续推进。2025年出口全年同比-1%、2026年初至今出口增加显著，表明海外仍有较大补库需求。稀土板块将继续演化估值业绩双升，2026年亦为重点标的同业竞争解决的关键一年。中信证券指出，全球稀土资源战略地位持续提升，稀土产业进入高质量发展新时代。供给层面，配额管制叠加管制政策，刚性逻辑或持续加强；需求层面，新能源汽车、人形机器人和低空经济等新兴领域有望成为需求长期高速增长的核心驱动。该行预计2026年起全球稀土供需缺口或持续扩大，稀土价格或稳中有进，产业链盈利能力或持续提升，持续推荐稀土产业链战略配置价值。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"policyRegulatory","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.44.1","shortVersion":"4.44.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2643731104","isCrawlerRequest":true}