“我还不够乐观”！美股大多头Yardeni称市场不是“FOMO” 而是“FEMO”，当前涨势靠盈利而非泡沫

智通财经06-16

6月16日，长期看多美股的华尔街知名策略师、Yardeni Research总裁Ed Yardeni近日表示，尽管自己一直被市场视为“超级多头”，回头来看，他对本轮美股上涨行情的乐观程度仍然不够。在接受采访时，Yardeni表示，当前美股持续创新高的核心驱动力并非投资者盲目追涨，而是企业盈利增长远超预期。他称：“我原本已经很乐观了，但事实证明我还不够乐观。”Yardeni：市场并非FOMO 而是“...

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U.S. stock bulls Yardeni says the market is not \"FOMO\" but \"FEMO\" The current rally depends on earnings rather than bubbles","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3c173940df1178c29e09419d5623ccf","symbols_score_info":{"VOO":0.6,"07266":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"NJUL":0.6,"03086":0.6,"FOMO":1.5,"QDEC":0.6,"09834":0.6,"DMAX":0.6,"QQQM":0.6,"02834":0.6,"07261":0.6,"TQQY":0.6,"SDS":0.6,".IXIC":2,"SSO":0.6,"SPUU":0.6,"SPYU":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"QQQX":0.6,"HIBL":0.6,"SPXL":0.6,"QMAR":0.6,"NJAN":0.6,"SPYM":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"07522":0.6,"SPYQ":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"SMAX":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"07568":0.6,"GPIQ":0.6,"NOCT":0.6,"09086":0.6,"NAPR":0.6,"SPYH":0.6,"MMAX":0.6,"SH":0.6,"NDX":2,"SPDN":0.6,".DJI":2,"SPY":0.6,"03034":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"YSPY":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DIA":0.6,"QID":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,".SPX":2,"03455":0.6},"content_text":"6月16日，长期看多美股的华尔街知名策略师、Yardeni Research总裁Ed Yardeni近日表示，尽管自己一直被市场视为“超级多头”，回头来看，他对本轮美股上涨行情的乐观程度仍然不够。在接受采访时，Yardeni表示，当前美股持续创新高的核心驱动力并非投资者盲目追涨，而是企业盈利增长远超预期。他称：“我原本已经很乐观了，但事实证明我还不够乐观。”Yardeni：市场并非FOMO 而是“FEMO”近年来，“FOMO”(害怕错过行情)经常被用来形容投资者疯狂追涨的市场情绪。但Yardeni认为，目前的市场更应该被称为“FEMO”(Fabulous Earnings Momentum，即卓越盈利增长动能)。在他看来，本轮牛市并非依赖估值不断扩张，而是由企业盈利持续增长所推动。“相比估值推动的上涨，我更愿意看到由盈利增长推动的上涨。”Yardeni指出，目前标普500指数整体估值水平并未明显失控。“市场估值大约维持在21倍左右，而企业盈利却在不断超出市场预期。”根据华尔街分析师目前预测，未来七个季度标普500指数成分股盈利有望累计增长约20%。他认为，这种盈利驱动型上涨相比单纯依赖市场情绪的上涨更加健康，也更具持续性。美国消费者韧性远超市场预期谈及美国经济为何能够持续支撑企业盈利增长时，Yardeni特别提到了美国消费者的强劲表现。尽管过去几年美国经历了高通胀、高利率以及国际油价大幅波动等挑战，消费支出始终保持较强韧性。“你不能低估美国经济和美国消费者的韧性。”Yardeni表示，即便汽油价格一度上涨至每加仑4至5美元，美国消费者整体支出依然保持增长。他认为，这背后一个重要原因是美国婴儿潮一代积累了庞大的财富。数据显示，美国退休及即将退休的婴儿潮一代目前持有约89万亿美元净资产。Yardeni指出，这部分群体拥有较强的消费能力和财富缓冲空间，因此在面对通胀和利率上升时，对整体经济的冲击相对有限。美联储激进加息未能引发衰退Yardeni还回顾了过去几年美国经济面对的一系列重大挑战。从接近零利率到5.5%的激进加息周期，再到持续升级的中东地缘政治风险，美国经济始终未出现市场此前广泛担忧的衰退。2022年，美联储快速收紧货币政策一度引发美股熊市。然而，美国经济最终成功实现“软着陆”，衰退并未发生。“那轮熊市持续时间并不长，实际上是一次非常好的买入机会。”他认为，美国企业盈利能力、劳动力市场韧性以及消费者支出表现，共同支撑了经济持续扩张。坚持“咆哮的2020年代”判断事实上，Yardeni一直是“咆哮的2020年代”理论最坚定的支持者之一。早在2020年8月，他就提出未来十年美国经济和资本市场有望重现上世纪20年代经济繁荣时期的景象。如今，尽管市场经历了疫情、高通胀、加息周期以及地缘政治冲突等多重挑战，他仍坚持这一长期判断。Yardeni预计，到2029年底，标普500指数有望达到10000点。这一目标意味着未来几年美股仍存在较大上涨空间。SpaceX创纪录IPO被视为积极信号除了盈利增长和经济基本面外，Yardeni还将近期SpaceX(SPCX.US)创纪录IPO视为市场健康的重要信号。上周，SpaceX完成美国资本市场历史上规模最大的首次公开募股(IPO)，融资规模达到750亿美元。Yardeni认为，这表明当前市场流动性依然充裕，投资者风险偏好保持强劲。市场人士认为，在AI投资热潮持续、企业盈利增长强劲以及资本市场融资环境改善的背景下，Yardeni的观点再次反映出部分华尔街多头机构对于美国经济和股市中长期前景仍保持较高信心。不过，也有机构提醒，当前标普500指数已经处于历史高位附近，未来市场表现仍将受到利率走势、通胀变化以及全球地缘政治风险等因素影响。但对于Yardeni而言，企业盈利持续增长仍是决定本轮牛市能否延续的最关键变量。“只要盈利预期继续上修，这轮行情就还有进一步上涨的空间。”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":5,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.44.1","shortVersion":"4.44.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2643202289","isCrawlerRequest":true}