美银拉响警报：七成熊市信号已触发

国际财闻汇06-09

据彭博社报道，美国银行证券（美银证券）一支由萨维塔·萨勃拉曼尼亚（Savita Subramanian）领衔的策略师团队，在6月5日的报告中警告美股"危险信号太多"，并直接给出建议："获利了结"。在他们看来，越来越多的"熊市信号"正指向市场见顶。警告并非空穴来风。团队称，这类熊市信号已有约七成被触发，恰与历次市场见顶时的平均水平相当；与此同时，标普500指数在20个估值指标中有17个显示偏贵，其中...

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Subramanian）领衔的策略师团队，在6月5日的报告中警告美股\"危险信号太多\"，并直接给出建议：\"获利了结\"。在他们看来，越来越多的\"熊市信号\"正指向市场见顶。警告并非空穴来风。团队称，这类熊市信号已有约七成被触发，恰与历次市场见顶时的平均水平相当；与此同时，标普500指数在20个估值指标中有17个显示偏贵，其中...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.ifeng.com/c/8toG77uHaNM\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4581","symbol_name":"高盛持仓","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.ifeng.com/c/8toG77uHaNM","article_id":"2642476458","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2642476458","pubTimestamp":1780965489,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"fenghuang_stock","name":"凤凰网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"据彭博社报道，美国银行证券 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Subramanian）领衔的策略师团队，在6月5日的报告中警告美股\"危险信号太多\"，并直接给出建议：\"获利了结\"。在他们看来，越来越多的\"熊市信号\"正指向市场见顶。警告并非空穴来风。团队称，这类熊市信号已有约七成被触发，恰与历次市场见顶时的平均水平相当；与此同时，标普500指数在20个估值指标中有17个显示偏贵，其中8个甚至比当年的科技泡沫时期还要高。这些信号横跨多个维度，既有消费者信心、增长预期、并购活动和信贷压力，也包括反映信贷收紧的美联储\"高级信贷员意见调查\"（SLOOS）。策略师还提到一个更直观的迹象：高市盈率个股大幅跑赢低估值个股，这本身就是\"过度投机\"的信号。被指数光环掩盖的科技股分化指数表面的强势之下，科技板块内部的差距正越拉越大。萨勃拉曼尼亚指出，板块内表现最好与最差的两组个股之间的差距，已是2000年2月以来之最，那正是互联网泡沫破裂的前夜。她形容，标普500的整体上涨\"掩盖了内部的剧烈分化\"：过去三个月，指数中头部与尾部各十分之一个股的回报差距，已升至疫情以来的最高点（数据取自1986年至今年5月）。基本面同样在分化。她说，科技股的杠杆、估值与资本密集度等仍算健康，但自美银去年11月评估以来，多数指标已经走坏：现金流转化停滞、投资级债券与股票供给增加、回购占市值的比重放缓；尤其是超大规模云厂商，其资本开支占经营性现金流的比例预计将从2023年的40%飙升至年底的近100%，这几乎把赚到的现金悉数投入扩张。她为此发出警示：\"极端的价格走势，可能意味着不稳定性正在抬头。\"当然，美银并非全盘看空。萨勃拉曼尼亚认为个股仍有跑赢的机会，\"我们看好的是标普500里的个股，而不是那只市值加权的大盘\"。耐人寻味的是，她给出的年终目标位仅为7100点，而该指数周一刚收涨0.3%、报约7406点。按她的判断，大盘距今还有约4%的下行空间。（国际财闻汇）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"CCBot/2.0 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