AI大单也撑不住市场信心！甲骨文资本开支“脱缰”，股价大跌逾10%

智通财经06-11

美东时间6月10日美股盘后，甲骨文(ORCL.US)发布了截至5月31日的2026财年第四季度财报。尽管各项核心财务指标普遍超出市场预期，公司股价却在盘后交易中下跌逾10%。引发投资者抛售的并非业务增长失速，而是又一组远超预期的资本支出数字以及随之而来的新一轮巨额融资计划。财报显示，甲骨文第四季度总营收达191.8亿美元，同比增长21%，高于分析师预期的191亿美元。净利润为42.2亿美元，合每股...

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Oracle's shares plummet more than 10% as capital expenditures \"run off the reins\"","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd547bc5360151c7897f0f4b87bccb71","symbols_score_info":{"ORCL":1.98,"ORCX":0.6,"ORCS":0.6,"ORCU":0.6},"content_text":"美东时间6月10日美股盘后，甲骨文(ORCL.US)发布了截至5月31日的2026财年第四季度财报。尽管各项核心财务指标普遍超出市场预期，公司股价却在盘后交易中下跌逾10%。引发投资者抛售的并非业务增长失速，而是又一组远超预期的资本支出数字以及随之而来的新一轮巨额融资计划。财报显示，甲骨文第四季度总营收达191.8亿美元，同比增长21%，高于分析师预期的191亿美元。净利润为42.2亿美元，合每股收益1.45美元，去年同期为34.3亿美元(每股1.19美元)，调整后每股收益为2.11美元，高于市场预期的1.96美元。在整个2026财年，甲骨文营收首次突破670亿美元，非GAAP营业利润达290亿美元，同比增长16%，非GAAP每股收益为7.63美元，增长27%(含一次性投资收益)。剔除这些收益后，非GAAP每股收益为6.83美元。经营活动现金流为320亿美元，增长54%。云业务高歌猛进：OCI增速93%，RPO暴增363%作为市场最关注的增长引擎，甲骨文的云基础设施业务(OCI)本季度收入达58亿美元，同比飙升93%，略高于分析师预期的91%增速。云应用收入为41亿美元，同比增长10%。包括基础设施和应用在内的总云收入达99.1亿美元，同比增长47%。更令管理层振奋的是剩余履约义务(RPO)——这一衡量未来合同收入的关键指标——在季度末飙升至6380亿美元，同比暴增363%，远超分析师平均预期的5956.7亿美元。公司表示，其中大部分新增RPO来自大规模AI基础设施合同，且这些合同采用了两种特殊结构——客户预付款模式：客户提前向甲骨文支付购买GPU的费用;客户自带硬件模式：客户自行购买并供应GPU给甲骨文。甲骨文联席CEO Clay Magouyrk在电话会上透露，仅第四季度就签署了670亿美元的AI基础设施合同。目前公司手中这种“预付款或自带硬件”类合同总额已达750亿美元。他特别强调，这些合同的利润率“与其他合同相比没有任何下降”。从RPO的确认节奏看，首席财务官Hilary Maxson首次给出了明确的时间表：预计12%(约765.6亿美元)将在未来12个月内确认为收入，另有34%(约2169亿美元)将在之后的13至36个月内确认。她表示，这一确认速度有望在未来几个季度进一步加快。资本支出“脱缰”：556.6亿远超预期，自由现金流仍为负然而，所有这些亮眼数据都被一组资本支出数字所掩盖。2026财年全年，甲骨文的资本支出(Capital Expenditures)高达556.6亿美元，同比增长162%，远高于公司此前给出的500亿美元指引。仅第四季度单季的资本支出就约为165亿美元。更令投资者担忧的是公司的自由现金流状况：全年自由现金流为负237亿美元。与此同时，折旧费用几乎翻倍至76.2亿美元。在财报电话会上，Maxson对2027财年的资本支出给出了更高规模的指引：净现金资本支出约为700亿美元。但她同时解释称，由于部分组件的预付款项和客户付款的时间差影响，实际报告金额将高出200亿至250亿美元。为了支撑这一前所未有的投资计划，甲骨文披露了庞大的融资安排：2026财年已完成的融资：发行了430亿美元债务融资和50亿美元股权融资。2027财年计划融资：预计再通过债务和股权组合融资约400亿美元，其中包括此前已宣布的200亿美元“按市价发行”(ATM)股票发行计划。Maxson特别指出，公司预计在2026日历年(即2027财年的前半段)不会再进行额外的债务融资。目前，甲骨文在彭博美国高等级公司债指数中的债务规模约为1170亿美元，是金融行业以外最大的债券发行人。AI叙事正在发生新一轮深刻变化甲骨文股价在财报后的下跌并非孤立事件。如果把视线拉长到过去近半个月的美股市场，一个清晰的信号正在浮现：在估值被不断推高后，市场对AI的投资逻辑正转向“审慎评估回报与风险”。就在三个月前，甲骨文股价还受益于市场对AI的乐观情绪而持续回升。过去三个月，公司股价累计上涨约35%，TD Cowen分析师Derrick Wood在财报前指出，这一涨幅主要得益于投资者对计算服务提供商以及甲骨文最重要客户——OpenAI的情绪改善。然而，本次财报揭示了一个残酷的现实：即使有OpenAI这样的大客户背书，AI基础设施的资本密集程度仍远超预期。甲骨文此前曾宣布与OpenAI合作建设大型数据中心，财报显示位于德克萨斯州阿比林的核心园区已完成42%的容量交付，未来三个月还将再交付35%。但问题在于，这类项目的资本回报周期与当前的烧钱速度之间存在明显错配。Maxson在回答分析师提问时给出了一个关键数字：在稳态运营下，大型基础设施项目的项目层面投资资本回报率(ROIC)接近30%(high-20s)。这是一个不错的长期回报水平，但前提是“收入已经爬坡到位”。债务驱动的增长模式遭遇拷问甲骨文并非唯一面临这一质疑的公司。过去一年，整个美股科技板块掀起了一场由债务驱动的AI投资狂潮。超大规模云厂商、芯片制造商、数据中心REITs纷纷通过发债或股权融资筹集数百亿甚至上千亿美元资金，用于购买GPU和建设数据中心。但近期市场的容忍度明显下降。投资者开始提出三个尖锐问题：需求是否真的能兑现? 甲骨文的RPO高达6380亿美元，其中超过50%来自OpenAI(据美银分析师测算)。但如此集中的客户结构本身就隐含风险——如果OpenAI的业务策略发生变化，或自建算力，这部分订单能否顺利转化为收入?资本效率何时改善? 甲骨文2026财年产生了237亿美元的负自由现金流。即使公司指引2027财年净现金资本支出为700亿美元，管理层也没有给出自由现金流转正的具体时间表。eMarketer分析师Jacob Bourne直言：“需求是真实的，云基础设施收入和积压在快速增长。但资金问题越来越难，而不是越来越容易——资本支出远高于预期，自由现金流仍然为负。”融资成本上升的冲击有多大? 甲骨文目前仍有能力以投资级评级发行债券，但如果利率维持高位，债务成本将侵蚀本就承压的利润率。Maxson在电话会上预警，随着数据中心项目加速上线，2027财年公司毛利率将“阶段性下降”(step down)。甲骨文的应对：预付款结构与产能利用率面对市场的质疑，甲骨文管理层试图从两个角度回应。第一，强调“预付款”结构对资本需求的缓冲作用。 公司明确表示，750亿美元的预付款或客户自带硬件合同“大大减少了甲骨文为建设AI数据中心而需要筹集的资本金额”。这种模式下，客户实际上承担了部分硬件采购成本，甲骨文则赚取托管、网络、运营等服务收入。公司宣称这类合同的利润率与其他合同“没有差异”，但市场对此仍持谨慎态度——这类业务更像是一种“轻资产”服务而非传统意义上的云基础设施租赁。第二，展示极高的产能利用率。 Magouyrk透露，全球GPU利用率高达97.5%。在第四季度到期的35,000颗GPU中(涉及59家客户)，49%的客户续约了其中92%的容量，剩余产能也在当季迅速转售给其他客户。这一数据确实表明当前算力供需极度紧张，定价权掌握在供应商手中。展望2027财年，甲骨文给出了收入增长34%(固定汇率)的指引，非GAAP每股收益预期为8.05美元(同比增长18%)。一季度指引为收入增长27%-29%，云收入增长58%-64%，调整后每股收益1.72-1.76美元。Maxson还表示，随着新增数据中心容量在下半年逐步上线，收入和盈利增速都将加速。但资本市场是否愿意相信这一远期叙事，将在很大程度上取决于未来几个季度自由现金流的实际改善情况，以及管理层能否在资本支出与财务纪律之间找到更好的平衡点。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.44.0","shortVersion":"4.44.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2642472925","isCrawlerRequest":true}