高盛彻底认输！抹去2026年降息预测，警告美联储或被迫重启加息

智通财经06-10

市场在2026年的大部分时间里都在等待美联储降息，而高盛此前曾预测降息将分别在2026年12月和2027年3月落地。然而，在6月6日公布的5月就业报告远超所有经济学家的预期后，高盛彻底将这两个日期从预测日程表中抹去。这家投行传递的最新信息非常直白：今年不会降息，且美联储下一步行动完全不降息的概率显著上升。高盛首席美国经济学家大卫·梅里克在最新报告中取消了该行此前做出的2026年两次降息预测，...

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Erasing 2026 rate cut forecast, warning Fed may be forced to restart rate hike","themeId":"fa18e8b5a9154df3a411f17d56c210b3","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27895c7ade8cdcf4dd83e2cabfdc8c8c","symbols_score_info":{"NJUL":0.6,"IEI":1.5,"02834":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UUP":1.5,"TBT":1.5,"BIL":1.5,"SCHO":1.5,"FAZ":1.5,"USHY":1.5,"MINT":1.5,"KBE":1.5,"PSQ":0.6,"BOXX":1.5,"GPIQ":0.6,"YSPY":0.6,"07568":0.6,"IVV":0.6,".IXIC":2,"HIBL":0.6,"VGLT":1.5,"TBIL":1.5,"07261":0.6,"KRE":0.6,"SPXS":0.6,"NOCT":0.6,"SKRE":1.5,"SPUU":0.6,"MMAX":0.6,".SPX":2,"MUB":1.5,"DIA":0.6,"HYG":1.5,"SPYU":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"NAPR":0.6,"TQQY":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"TLTW":1.5,"07266":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"BSV":1.5,"SH":0.6,"TYO":1.5,"SPXU":0.6,"NGHT":1.5,"SPXL":0.6,"BND":1.5,".DJI":2,"GOLY":1.5,"03086":0.6,"LQD":1.5,"DBND":1.5,"SPYH":0.6,"QMAR":0.6,"DMAX":0.6,"QQQX":0.6,"VGSH":1.5,"SMAX":0.6,"NJAN":0.6,"VGIT":1.5,"SSO":0.6,"IEF":1.5,"BOND":1.5,"TLT":1.5,"QQQ":0.6,"07522":0.6,"SPDN":0.6,"SHV":1.5,"TIP":1.5,"UDOW":0.6,"ZROZ":1.5,"03034":0.6,"PBDC":1.5,"GOVT":1.5,"SPY":0.6,"VCIT":1.5,"NDX":2,"SPYQ":0.6,"QDEC":0.6,"UDN":1.5,"SDS":0.6,"GBIL":1.5,"SHY":1.5,"SPYM":0.6,"VOO":0.6,"TLH":1.5,"AGG":1.5,"09834":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"UBT":1.5,"TMF":1.5,"QLD":0.6,"JPST":1.5,"09086":0.6,"EDV":1.5,"QQQM":0.6,"QID":0.6,"VCSH":1.5,"DDM":0.6,"03455":0.6},"content_text":"市场在2026年的大部分时间里都在等待美联储降息，而高盛此前曾预测降息将分别在2026年12月和2027年3月落地。然而，在6月6日公布的5月就业报告远超所有经济学家的预期后，高盛彻底将这两个日期从预测日程表中抹去。这家投行传递的最新信息非常直白：今年不会降息，且美联储下一步行动完全不降息的概率显著上升。高盛首席美国经济学家大卫·梅里克在最新报告中取消了该行此前做出的2026年两次降息预测，取而代之的是预测2027年6月和12月将分别降息25个基点。引发这一转变的导火索是5月份的就业报告。美国经济在5月份新增了17.2万个非农就业岗位，远高于经济学家此前预测的8万至8.5万个。与此同时，失业率连续第三个月维持在4.3%。高盛据此得出结论，该数据让美联储今年没有任何理由去放宽货币政策。梅里克并不仅仅是推迟了降息的时间节点。高盛还将小幅加息的预测概率从先前的10%提高了一倍，达到 20%。尽管该行并未将加息作为其“基准情景”，但此举表明，美联储潜在政策走向的概率分布正向更鹰派的方向倾斜。美联储降息需满足的先决条件高盛的报告不仅修改了时间表，还列出了在他们预期美联储采取行动之前必须满足的一套特定条件。梅里克表示，降息需要等到以下四个因素共同作用：1）关税相关的干扰有所缓解；2）因伊朗冲突引发的油价压力消退；3）高盛所认为的“被夸大的AI需求”回归常态；4）同比核心PCE(个人消费支出)通胀率更接近2%。不过，高盛自身对其修正后预测的信心也相对有限。该行认为其“2027年降息两次”的基准情景仅有30%的概率(低于此前预测的40%)。而余下70%的概率分布则涵盖了“完全不降息”到“小幅加息”在内的各种结果。关于加息风险，梅里克写道，“具有韧性的经济活动和就业数据也降低了加息的门槛。这倒不是因为数据暗示了经济有过热风险，而是因为更强劲的经济起点降低了加息最终可能变成‘代价高昂的错误’的风险，”5月非农大超预期5月份实际新增的17.2万个就业岗位与经济学家预测的8万至8.5万个之间的差距，并非普通的预测偏差——它达到了市场共识预期的两倍以上。这一幅度的重要性在于，它表明美联储的限制性政策对劳动力市场的影响小于模型所推导的结果，从而直接削弱了放宽政策(降息)的合理性。自2025年底将借贷成本削减75个基点以来，美联储一直将基准利率维持在3.50%至3.75%的区间。5月的就业数据表明，这一限制性水平并未带来美联储在降息前通常希望看到的劳动力市场降温。高盛并非唯一一家这样解读的机构。野村证券此前就已经预测美联储将在整个2026年维持利率不变。债券市场的走势也与高盛的报告一致：在5月就业报告发布后，投资者开始将美联储在12日前小幅加息25个基点的预期计入价内，纳斯达克100指数在数据公布当天大跌5%。高盛最新预测降息延后半年： 高盛先前的预测为2026年12月和2027年3月各降息25个基点；现已全部取消，改为2027年6月和12月各降息25个基点。这一转变代表着比此前的时间线整整推迟了半年。基准预测信心不足： 高盛对其2027年降息两次的情景仅给出了30%的概率，这意味着该行的基准预测信心仅比“抛硬币”略高一点;其余70%的概率包括不降息、降息一次或小幅加息。四大降息门槛： 关税干扰缓解、伊朗冲突带来的油价压力消退、AI需求正常化、同比核心PCE通胀接近2%。目前这些条件均未满足。股市剧烈反应： 5月就业报告发布当天(6月6日)，纳斯达克100指数下跌5%。这一抛售反映出降息预期此前是如何直接嵌入股票估值(尤其是成长股和科技股)之中的。利率维持高位： 美联储目前3.50%至3.75%的基准利率是在2025年底连续三次降息25个基点后达到的。高盛修正后的预测意味着利率将在这一水平上至少再维持18个月，这将成为后疫情时代加息周期以来，预计维持利率不变最长的时间。高盛此次修正对市场的直接启示是：投资者此前认为只是“暂时的”高利率环境，现在预计将一直持续到2027年。 这对股市有着特定的后果。科技股和成长股需要等待更长的时间，才能获得降息所能提供的估值支撑。就业报告公布当天纳斯达克指数5%的跌幅，就是这种动态最直接的体现。对于固定收益(债券)投资者而言，高盛的报告强化了配置短久期资产的理由。期限较长的债券对利率预期更为敏感，而20%的加息概率抹去了原本支撑长端国债的利好因素。美国10年期国债收益率一直在走高，正是对这种预测修订的提前消化。该报告引发的更深层次问题在于：5月份的就业报告究竟只是单月的异常现象，还是一个信号——表明美国经济对货币紧缩政策的抵抗力，比高盛此前的模型所假设的更为持久?如果5月份的17.2万个岗位之后，6月和7月也出现同样强劲的数据，高盛2027年的降息时间表可能需要再次修正。梅里克的报告也承认了这种可能性，这正是该行对其自身基准预测仅给出30%信心的原因所在。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"CCBot/2.0 (https://commoncrawl.org/faq/)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.44.1","shortVersion":"4.44.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2642443389","isCrawlerRequest":true}