黄金进入四年来首个熊市

第一财经10:51

热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端　　2026.06．11 本文字数：1847，阅读时长大约3分钟　　作者 | 第一财经樊志菁　　国际金价周三盘中跌破4100美元，创去年11月以来新低，正式进入四年以来首个熊市。市场普遍认为，能源上涨引发的通胀压力，将迫使美联储在年内加息25个基点。黄金本被视作通胀对冲工具，但加息通常会对这类无息资产形成打压。　　...

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| 第一财经 樊志菁\n　　国际金价周三盘中跌破4100美元，创去年11月以来新低，正式进入四年以来首个熊市。市场普遍认为，能源上涨引发的通胀压力，将迫使美联储在年内加息25个基点。黄金本被视作通胀对冲工具，但加息通常会对这类无息资产形成打压。\n　　全球紧缩周期\n　　纽约商品交易所交投最活跃的8月黄金合约周三下跌3.6%，收于每盎司4133.30美元，连续第四日走低。道琼斯市场数据显示，这创下2025年11月以来最低收盘位，并确认进入熊市——较3月近期高点下跌超20%。自高点至今仅91天，为2008年金融危机高峰以来最快入熊（2008年用时23天）。\n　　随着美以与伊朗之间的冲突时间不断延续，市场对通胀升温以及央行加息的担忧随之加剧。\n　　汇拓外汇（FXTM）高级研究分析师卢克曼・奥图努加表示：“尽管地缘紧张局势催生避险情绪，但黄金依旧受制于不断加剧的通胀风险。美伊再度交火，基本断送了结束这场战事的努力。”\n　　荷兰国际集团（ING）大宗商品策略师伊娃・曼泰伊认为，市场关注点已从单纯避险转向利率与通胀，贵金属因此持续承压。“中东局势升级推高油价、加剧通胀风险，市场进而预判全球央行将在更长时间内维持紧缩货币政策。实际收益率随之走高，这对金银这类无息资产形成明显利空。”\n　　据芝加哥商品交易所美联储利率观测工具（CME  FedWatch）数据，美联储下周联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议维持基准利率不变的概率高达98.2%；交易员预计，美联储将在12月启动加息。与此同时路孚特（LSEG）数据显示，欧洲央行周四货币政策会议加息25个基点的预期已基本成为市场共识。\n　　Zaye Capital Markets首席投资官纳伊姆・阿斯拉姆表示，持续的地缘紧张局势支撑油价，意味着高通胀将更持久，这也意味着美联储难以降息，资金因此继续青睐美债。黄金无利息收益，利率上升时，持有黄金的机会成本随之增加。\n　　本轮美伊冲突至今已逾百日，在战事爆发前，市场原本预计美联储今年晚些时候会转向偏鸽立场。“地缘冲突带来的买盘已退居其次，当前主导市场的是宏观因素：收益率上行、加息预期升温，其影响盖过了避险需求。短期来看，除非收益率明显回落、美国通胀数据走弱，否则贵金属仍易下跌。”曼泰伊表示。\n　　全球风险管理平台 Galytix 首席执行官拉吉・阿布洛表示，金银走势与全球信贷收紧的逻辑一脉相承。“实际收益率上行叠加美元走强，会推高所有依靠美元融资的新兴市场、杠杆信贷主体，以及未来一年内存在再融资压力主体的资金成本，而贵金属市场对此反应最为灵敏。”\n　　资产去杠杆化\n　　上周五，美国就业数据超预期，进一步强化加息预期，掀起了新一轮全球资产集体抛售潮。\n　　期货经纪商 Altavest 联合创始人兼管理合伙人迈克尔・阿姆布鲁斯特发现，黄金正与股市同步波动。基于FactSet数据的分析显示，自6月初（纳斯达克100指数见顶前后）以来，黄金期货与纳斯达克指数的相关系数达0.91（1.00表示完全同步）。\n　　数字资产资管机构 Wave Digital Assets  国际投研主管拉吉夫・索恩利周三在邮件评论中提到，近期各类资产与股市走势相关性显著提升。“这是典型的全市场去杠杆现象：前期仓位过度、杠杆高企，投资者被迫抛售优质资产，为亏损头寸补仓，本质就是一轮市场集中抛盘。技术面来看，黄金、白银价格均已跌破200日均线，该指标历来是判断中长期趋势与行情节奏转向的重要信号。”\n　　惠灵顿投资管理公司投资策略分析师亚历克斯・金提醒投资者，不应将大宗商品简单归为地缘或通胀交易，需单独剖析黄金等品类的核心驱动逻辑与资产配置价值。“黄金自2022年末以来整体处于牛市，初期受各国央行购金支撑，后续又迎来ETF资金流入；但仓位过度拥挤时，行情也会出现深度回调。”\n　　花旗集团本周发布研报预警，将黄金三个月目标价从每盎司4300美元下调至4000美元，理由是霍尔木兹海峡局势僵持及能源价格高企推升了市场对美联储年内加息的预期。同时预警若霍尔木兹海峡封锁延续至夏季末，金价或跌至每盎司3500美元。这已经是短短一个月内，花旗二次更改对黄金价格的预测。\n　　不过亚历克斯・金认为，金价仍存在上行机会：“各国央行外汇储备结构调整是关键变量。黄金市场体量远小于美债市场，中、日等主要美债持有国即便小幅调仓，也会对金价产生巨大影响。当前美元强势格局也可能逆转，一旦美元走弱、储备货币地位松动，黄金作为替代价值储备资产的吸引力将再度提升。”\n　　阿姆布鲁斯特预测，金价走势有望重演2008年。当年黄金最初随股市抛售，随后在11月见底，此后一路上行。“我们一段时间以来的判断是：6月黄金将承压，但下半年宏观面将明显利多金价。”\n\n新浪合作大平台期货开户 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