惠誉：预计霍尔木兹海峡重新开放后石油将恢复过剩

环球市场播报06-08 12:24

　　惠誉国际评级认为，目前油价的飙升反映的是“暂时的物流供应冲击“，而非产能的持久损失。惠誉在一份报告中表示：“我们假设该海峡将在7月底左右重新开放，并预计布伦特原油价格将从3月至7月的高位大幅下跌。“其基准情境是，假设霍尔木兹海峡在7月底前重新开放，2026年布伦特原油均价将为每桶87美元。惠誉预计，在该海峡重新开放后，油价将下跌，市场将迅速恢复过剩状态，预计第四季度供应过剩约为400万桶/日，具体取决于欧佩克的政策。 ICE布伦特原油上涨3.7%，报每桶96.60美元。

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