现货黄金盘中失守4430美元！5家大行集体唱空金价

21世纪经济报道06-03 22:44

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！　　记者丨叶麦穗　　编辑丨包芳鸣江佩霞　　北京时间6月3日晚，黄金白银短线下挫，截至发稿，现货黄金失守4430美元/盎司，日内跌1.3%。现货白银日内跌幅扩大至2%，报73.43美元/盎司。　　国际金价年内回撤超1000美元　　黄金自1月末触及5598.75美元/盎司的高点之后，已经回落超过1000美元/盎司，目前...

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江佩霞\n　　北京时间6月3日晚，黄金白银短线下挫，截至发稿，现货黄金失守4430美元/盎司，日内跌1.3%。现货白银日内跌幅扩大至2%，报73.43美元/盎司。\n　　国际金价年内回撤超1000美元\n　　黄金自1月末触及5598.75美元/盎司的高点之后，已经回落超过1000美元/盎司，目前在4500美元/盎司附近徘徊，整体呈现“冲高见顶，重心下移”的态势，随着黄金价格“节节败退”，国际投行也开始“反价”。\n　　近日，德国商业银行将2026年末金价预测从5000美元/盎司下调至4800美元/盎司。不过该行维持了2027年底5200美元/盎司的价格预测。除了黄金价格本身被看淡之外，由于投资属性减弱、赚钱效应消失，黄金相关公司的目标价也被纷纷下调。\n\n　　5家大行集体唱空黄金 \n　　德国商业银行已经是第五家对黄金“变脸”的国际投行了。\n　　就在5月中旬，花旗银行也曾公开表态，短期看淡黄金走势，同时预判未来零至三月金价将触及4300美元/盎司。\n　　花旗此番顾虑具备现实依据：一旦美伊顺利敲定合作共识，霍尔木兹航道航运秩序全面恢复，国际油价或将回归冲突前价位。届时市场通胀情绪会快速走弱，倘若名义利率下调节奏滞后于通胀回落节奏，实际利率便会顺势走高，进而对黄金走势形成压制。花旗设定0至3个月的金价目标为4300美元/盎司，若发生重大的避险事件，金价可能远低于此水平。\n　　今年黄金在1月底触及5598.75美元/盎司的高点之后，就陷入漫长的调整，其间虽然也有所反弹，但是重心整体呈现下移态势。\n　　随着黄金陷入调整，机构开始下调对黄金价格的展望。就在花旗下调黄金展望前不久，摩根大通也将2026年黄金平均价格预测从5708美元/盎司下调至5243美元/盎司。\n　　打响下调第一枪的大行是摩根士丹利，该行四月末就已经将2026年下半年的最新黄金目标价下调至5200美元/盎司，远低于此前5700美元的预期，属于重大下调。\n　　摩根士丹利的理由是：地缘摩擦，导致实际利率上行、美联储降息延后，彻底改变了宏观经济格局。黄金通常在利率下行环境中走强，但当前利率持续走高，打破了传统价格逻辑，投资者因此重新调整持仓。局势由此发生逆转：高实际利率令债券更具吸引力，无息黄金吸引力大幅下降。摩根士丹利强调，这一变化让黄金与实际利率经典负相关的关系回归常态——2025年到2026年年初黄金大涨期间，二者关联性曾大幅弱化，如今联动性重回高位。\n　　与此同时，各国央行操作也对金价造成压力。土耳其等多个新兴市场央行开始抛售黄金储备，进一步施压价格。此外黄金ETF资金转为净流出，前期大举买入的投资者快速离场，加速金价下跌。\n　　随后澳新银行也将年底黄金目标价从5800美元/盎司下调至5600美元/盎司，将金价达到6000美元的目标时间从2027年初推迟至2027年年中。\n　　澳新银行的分析师指出：“市场目前似乎陷入了两难境地，一方面是地缘政治引发的焦虑，另一方面则是对通胀上行的担忧。”与此同时，实物黄金需求也可能面临风险，因为印度总理已呼吁国民在未来一年内暂缓购买黄金，以协助维护国家外汇储备。\n　　黄金股的价格也被下调\n　　不但黄金的价格展望被下调，黄金相关的上市公司也被机构看淡。\n　　去年的明星股——老铺黄金也不能幸免。花旗发表报告指，老铺黄金5月销售额预计将受节日促销带动而超过4月，但观察到天猫“618”活动至今的表现较预期弱，可能是由于高溢价导致对价格敏感的客户流失。由于2月涨价后金价走软，老铺黄金相对于传统金饰商的溢价已超过55%，高于2024年前约30%及2025年约10%的水平。该行相信，随着价格敏感客户暂时退出，现有客户更多是认可品牌品质、设计与服务的忠实客户，这将使未来销售与金价的相关性降低，有助于提高盈利的可预测性。此外，老铺黄金持续加强门店布局，包括5月底在澳门巴黎人开设新店，以及在杭州大厦及上海新天地调整门店位置或进行翻新。\n　　考虑到在线销售预期下调，花旗将老铺黄金2026财年收入预测下调6%至377亿元，但受惠于毛利率预测提升，净利润预测维持在82.6亿元不变。对于2027至2028财年，为反映价格敏感客户流失后的年化表现，该行将两年收入预测的下调幅度设为29%至30%，纯利预测的下调幅度设为27%至28%。基于预测2027财年市盈率15倍，该行将老铺黄金目标价由1162港元大幅下调至700港元，维持“买入”评级。\n　　3月末，美银证券也曾发表研报，将老铺黄金及周大福的评级由“买入”下调至“中性”，当中老铺黄金的目标价由860港元下调至774港元，周大福目标价则由17.5港元降至13.1港元。\n　　该行表示，金价波动及宏观经济增长放缓，增加增长前景的风险。中东局势为金价上升周期增添不确定因素。过去两年金价上升是黄金珠宝股的主要驱动力之一，因黄金被视为良好的保值工具。即使金价能维持上升周期，该行认为黄金珠宝消费持续与金价同步增长存在极限，消费者疲劳及产品周期消退或会周期性地拖累销售。\n　　黄金现货价格调整的同时，也累及黄金相关股票的表现。截至6月2日收盘，申万贵金属板块的11只成分股，其间平均回撤幅度已经达到45.5%，在全市场垫底。板块内个股，全线飘绿，截至本周二，山东黄金A股报收29.93元/股，较1月末的65.55元/股的年内高点回撤54.3%，跌幅位居板块第一。 \n\n新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障\n\n\n新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：宋雅芳","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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