伯克希尔为何此时买入？融资800亿美元豪赌AI，谷歌回调后值得买入吗？

智通财经06-03

谷歌母公司Alphabet(GOOG,GOOGL.US)近期宣布将进行一轮高达800亿美元的融资，旨在为AI发展筹集资金，其中包括伯克希尔·哈撒韦(BRK.US)以每股约350美元的价格进行的100亿美元投资。谷歌投资者对伯克希尔·哈撒韦的投资消息反应冷淡，股价在周二大幅下挫。投资者在此消息后抛售并不令人意外，因为他们可能认为伯克希尔是以牺牲谷歌现有股东利益为代价达成了一笔划算的交易。然而，当我们...

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精彩评论

火火兔爸
06-06
火火兔爸
疯狂建云实施其实就是抢占电力
superchance
06-03
superchance
打折了当然买入

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Raising $80 billion to gamble on AI, is it worth buying after Google's pullback?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58bf4dd6580a19e1893f94d800957c5c","symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":2,"GOOGL":1.98,"BRKD":0.6,"GOOY":0.6,"GOOX":0.6,"GGLS":0.6,"GOU":0.6,"GGLL":0.6,"BRK.B":1.91,"BRKW":0.6,"GOOW":0.6,"GOOP":0.6,"BRKU":0.6,"GOOG":2,"BRKC":0.6},"content_text":"谷歌母公司Alphabet(GOOG,GOOGL.US)近期宣布将进行一轮高达800亿美元的融资，旨在为AI发展筹集资金，其中包括伯克希尔·哈撒韦(BRK.US)以每股约350美元的价格进行的100亿美元投资。谷歌投资者对伯克希尔·哈撒韦的投资消息反应冷淡，股价在周二大幅下挫。投资者在此消息后抛售并不令人意外，因为他们可能认为伯克希尔是以牺牲谷歌现有股东利益为代价达成了一笔划算的交易。然而，当我们审视谷歌将如何使用这笔募集资金时，就会发现这笔支出很可能是值得的。谷歌选择在此时增发股票并不令人意外。公司正处于大规模AI建设的中期，且其股价距离历史高点不远。它既面临着巨大的投资机遇，股价又处于急剧攀升的高位，这正是增发股票融资的经典时机。因此，谷歌及其股东正处在诸多利好之中。这就引出了一个问题：这场盛宴还能持续多久?虽然谷歌无疑是一家伟大的公司，未来多年仍将保持卓越，但其股价已达到去年年初很少有投资者预期到的高位。伯克希尔认为谷歌值得投资，但显然，它正在以折扣价入场。纯粹基于价格动能来看，谷歌的涨势或许不太可能持续。回顾过去六个月、一年和五年期间谷歌的巨大涨幅，可能会直觉地认为该股票即将迎来回调。但当审视谷歌的基本面时，会发现一个完全不同的故事。谷歌盈利能力极强，拥有高利润率和资本回报率。对于如此体量的公司而言，其增长速度也极快，过去12个月的收益增长了22%。尽管表现如此出色，与其所在板块相比，该公司的估值仍处于低位，市盈率为29倍，而纳斯达克100指数的市盈率超过30倍。因此，无论是基于历史表现还是当前价值，谷歌似乎都是一个不错的选择。与任何公司一样，难点在于确定谷歌的强劲表现能否延续到未来。谷歌建立在强大且互联的产品与服务“生态系统”之上，拥有宽阔的护城河，其中几个产品拥有数十亿用户，这也是推动其股价飙升至350美元以上的主要动力。然而，当前科技世界发生了许多变化，包括AI领域竞争的加剧，这正是谷歌目前大力投资的细分领域。因此，鉴于谷歌已取得的收益及其行业发生的变化，谷歌的投资逻辑也需要被重新审视。分析师A.J.Button曾在4月30日分析谷歌股票时，给予其“买入”评级，理由是它在稳步增长的同时，资本支出(CAPEX)巨额增长。高昂的资本支出是其评价“买入”而非“强力买入”的原因。自那以后，谷歌的股价有所下跌。当前略低的价格可能是买入机会，但另一方面，AI投资领域的竞争比几年前的搜索领域要激烈得多。因此，我们需要确信谷歌仍然是几年前那个清晰且毫无疑问值得买入的公司。谷歌的股权融资自从A.J.Button上次发布分析谷歌的文章以来，发生的第一个重大变化是该公司多年来首次增发股票。此次筹集的资金高达800亿美元，数额巨大。因此，值得探讨Alphabet通过稀释股东权益换取800亿美元究竟得到了什么。根据谷歌刚刚宣布的配售新闻稿，公司计划将这800亿美元用于AI计算和基础设施，这意味着数据中心、服务器和其他半导体是运行谷歌众多AI应用所必需的。这些应用既包括内含AI的产品(如搜索、YouTube、Google Drive)，也包括向第三方开发者出售算力的Google Cloud。正是在第二类业务中，情况开始变得有些复杂。Google Cloud是谷歌业务中相对较新的部分，于2023年首次实现盈利。它在一个竞争激烈的领域运营，面临着来自亚马逊(AMZN.US)AWS和微软(MSFT.US)Azure等竞争对手的重大挑战。这绝对不像谷歌搜索那样是“独家生意”，尽管可以说谷歌搜索至今依然拥有这种地位。谷歌与上述另外两家云公司在向网络开发者出售AI服务器时间方面相互竞争。最近很大一部分业务是将英伟达(NVDA.US)芯片的使用作为一种服务来销售。云业务也有软件部分，例如托管开发者工具，开发者可以利用这些工具充分利用他们租用的服务器，而在这个业务中存在一些差异化的空间。例如，公司可以在自己的云上独家提供专有的应用程序作为开发者工具。然而，这个空间肯定竞争激烈，“七巨头”中的三家公司都在争夺相同的业务，甲骨文(ORCL.US)等较小的参与者以及几家中国公司也在努力进入这一领域。到目前为止，尽管面临竞争，谷歌的云部门似乎仍能盈利。在最近一个季度，该部门的营业利润为65亿美元，同比增长200%，这无疑是个积极信号。然而，该公司在同一时期也出现了自由现金流的环比下降，第一季度FCF低于去年第四季度FCF。这主要是由于AI建设导致的巨额现金流出，谷歌估计2026年全年的资本支出将在1800亿至1900亿美元之间。公司的收益依然稳健，但其现金流表现波动较大，最近几个季度显示出同比或环比下降。这些巨额现金支出反映了云业务的竞争性质。谷歌搜索的运行成本相对较低，只需少量支出就能产生巨额广告收入，而这些新的AI业务实际上正在消耗大量现金。部分原因是该领域的竞争非常激烈：公司正在竞相推高内存和半导体的价格。因此，谷歌正在一个比其传统业务的竞争更加激烈的环境中运营，并希望脱颖而出。伯克希尔可能在想什么综上所述，目前的情况对谷歌来说看起来是负面的，或者至少是有风险的。尽管如此，世界上最受尊敬的金融公司之一正在买入这只股票。我们应该问问自己，考虑到谷歌每年计划数千亿美元的AI资本支出，伯克希尔从中看到了什么。如今谷歌有几个有利因素。其中包括：1、其自主设计的AI芯片，称为张量处理单元(TPU)。这使得公司对英伟达的依赖程度略低于竞争对手。2、公司的传统业务依然强劲，在最近一期财报中披露，谷歌搜索稳定保持了90%的市场份额。3、公司拥有13种不同的产品，每种产品的用户都超过10亿。4、Google Play占据西方市场智能手机操作系统双寡头垄断的一半。这些事实都表明，谷歌在多个不同的垂直领域具有相当大的竞争优势。当然，它们都带来了交叉销售机会，这可以从公司提供的各种订阅服务中看出，例如Google One。伯克希尔的基金经理们在商讨是否投资谷歌股票时，可能会考虑上述部分事实。另外，一家公司在运营自己的产品和服务方面的成功，为其向云计算客户提供支持提供了保障。这些支持包括开发者工具、更持续的正常运行时间等。随着时间的推移，谷歌在开发者中的卓越声誉应该会吸引越来越多的客户使用其云计算产品。估值在考虑了上述因素后，我们可以对谷歌股票进行粗略估值。谷歌有足够多的积极因素，我们可以安全地假设其收益至少将保持在目前的水平，并且未来可能会在一定程度上增长。根据Seeking Alpha Quant的数据，谷歌在过去12个月(TTM)期间的每股收益为13.25美元。按10年期国债收益率4.5%折现，推出谷歌的股价值294美元。这显著低于今天的价格。然而，回想一下之前罗列的公司优势，就相对于竞争对手的地位而言，谷歌是一家非常强大的公司。因此，它很可能会随着美国经济的增长而在某种程度上增长。如果你只设定3%的永续增长假设，这低于长期GDP增速，那么目标价格将升至833美元。从历史上看，谷歌的收益和FCF增长远好于3%。因此，这里有充分的理由认为谷歌的股价还有很长的路要走。但A.J.Button实际上并不打算将目标价定为833美元，因为“永续增长”是一个很难预测是否会发生的指标。但即使假设未来10年平稳增长，也很容易得出500美元的目标价。所以，A.J.Button认为谷歌仍然是一个值得买入的标的。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":572129001107576,"gmtCreate":1780702331595,"gmtModify":1780703165446,"author":{"id":"3546249304196282","authorId":"3546249304196282","name":"火火兔爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1914631c23e50a7645217a36cc9d9598","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fbaa680ff01ef22199d81a0f09ea1d9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"wearingBadges":[{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-3","name":"传说交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到300次","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03f10910d4dd9234f9b5702a3342193a","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/656db16598a0b8f21429e10d6c1cb033","isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":0,"redirectLinkValidityTo":9223372036854776000}],"idStr":"3546249304196282","authorIdStr":"3546249304196282"},"htmlText":"疯狂建云实施其实就是抢占电力","listText":"疯狂建云实施其实就是抢占电力","text":"疯狂建云实施其实就是抢占电力","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/572129001107576","repostId":2640722739,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2640722739","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1780477550,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2640722739?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-03 17:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"伯克希尔为何此时买入？融资800亿美元豪赌AI，谷歌回调后值得买入吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2640722739","media":"智通财经","summary":"尽管谷歌宣布800亿美元股权融资引发短期股价下跌，但凭借其在AI基础设施的激进投入、深厚的护城河及被低估的基本面，加之伯克希尔·哈撒韦的逆势背书，该股在长期仍具显著投资价值。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司Alphabet(GOOG,GOOGL.US)近期宣布将进行一轮高达800亿美元的融资，旨在为AI发展筹集资金，其中包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>·哈撒韦(BRK.US)以每股约350美元的价格进行的100亿美元投资。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>投资者对伯克希尔·哈撒韦的投资消息反应冷淡，股价在周二大幅下挫。投资者在此消息后抛售并不令人意外，因为他们可能认为伯克希尔是以牺牲谷歌现有股东利益为代价达成了一笔划算的交易。然而，当我们审视谷歌将如何使用这笔募集资金时，就会发现这笔支出很可能是值得的。谷歌选择在此时增发股票并不令人意外。公司正处于大规模AI建设的中期，且其股价距离历史高点不远。它既面临着巨大的投资机遇，股价又处于急剧攀升的高位，这正是增发股票融资的经典时机。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此，谷歌及其股东正处在诸多利好之中。这就引出了一个问题：这场盛宴还能持续多久?虽然谷歌无疑是一家伟大的公司，未来多年仍将保持卓越，但其股价已达到去年年初很少有投资者预期到的高位。伯克希尔认为谷歌值得投资，但显然，它正在以折扣价入场。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">纯粹基于价格动能来看，谷歌的涨势或许不太可能持续。回顾过去六个月、一年和五年期间谷歌的巨大涨幅，可能会直觉地认为该股票即将迎来回调。但当审视谷歌的基本面时，会发现一个完全不同的故事。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">谷歌盈利能力极强，拥有高利润率和资本回报率。对于如此体量的公司而言，其增长速度也极快，过去12个月的收益增长了22%。尽管表现如此出色，与其所在板块相比，该公司的估值仍处于低位，市盈率为29倍，而纳斯达克100指数的市盈率超过30倍。因此，无论是基于历史表现还是当前价值，谷歌似乎都是一个不错的选择。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与任何公司一样，难点在于确定谷歌的强劲表现能否延续到未来。谷歌建立在强大且互联的产品与服务“生态系统”之上，拥有宽阔的护城河，其中几个产品拥有数十亿用户，这也是推动其股价飙升至350美元以上的主要动力。然而，当前科技世界发生了许多变化，包括AI领域竞争的加剧，这正是谷歌目前大力投资的细分领域。因此，鉴于谷歌已取得的收益及其行业发生的变化，谷歌的投资逻辑也需要被重新审视。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析师A.J.Button曾在4月30日分析谷歌股票时，给予其“买入”评级，理由是它在稳步增长的同时，资本支出(CAPEX)巨额增长。高昂的资本支出是其评价“买入”而非“强力买入”的原因。自那以后，谷歌的股价有所下跌。当前略低的价格可能是买入机会，但另一方面，AI投资领域的竞争比几年前的搜索领域要激烈得多。因此，我们需要确信谷歌仍然是几年前那个清晰且毫无疑问<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300785\">值得买</a>入的公司。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">谷歌的股权融资</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">自从A.J.Button上次发布分析谷歌的文章以来，发生的第一个重大变化是该公司多年来首次增发股票。此次筹集的资金高达800亿美元，数额巨大。因此，值得探讨Alphabet通过稀释股东权益换取800亿美元究竟得到了什么。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根据谷歌刚刚宣布的配售新闻稿，公司计划将这800亿美元用于AI计算和基础设施，这意味着数据中心、服务器和其他半导体是运行谷歌众多AI应用所必需的。这些应用既包括内含AI的产品(如搜索、YouTube、Google Drive)，也包括向第三方开发者出售算力的Google Cloud。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">正是在第二类业务中，情况开始变得有些复杂。Google Cloud是谷歌业务中相对较新的部分，于2023年首次实现盈利。它在一个竞争激烈的领域运营，面临着来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>(AMZN.US)AWS和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>(MSFT.US)Azure等竞争对手的重大挑战。这绝对不像谷歌搜索那样是“独家生意”，尽管可以说谷歌搜索至今依然拥有这种地位。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">谷歌与上述另外两家云公司在向网络开发者出售AI服务器时间方面相互竞争。最近很大一部分业务是将<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>(NVDA.US)芯片的使用作为一种服务来销售。云业务也有软件部分，例如托管开发者工具，开发者可以利用这些工具充分利用他们租用的服务器，而在这个业务中存在一些差异化的空间。例如，公司可以在自己的云上独家提供专有的应用程序作为开发者工具。然而，这个空间肯定竞争激烈，“七巨头”中的三家公司都在争夺相同的业务，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>(ORCL.US)等较小的参与者以及几家中国公司也在努力进入这一领域。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">到目前为止，尽管面临竞争，谷歌的云部门似乎仍能盈利。在最近一个季度，该部门的营业利润为65亿美元，同比增长200%，这无疑是个积极信号。然而，该公司在同一时期也出现了自由现金流的环比下降，第一季度FCF低于去年第四季度FCF。这主要是由于AI建设导致的巨额现金流出，谷歌估计2026年全年的资本支出将在1800亿至1900亿美元之间。公司的收益依然稳健，但其现金流表现波动较大，最近几个季度显示出同比或环比下降。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这些巨额现金支出反映了云业务的竞争性质。谷歌搜索的运行成本相对较低，只需少量支出就能产生巨额广告收入，而这些新的AI业务实际上正在消耗大量现金。部分原因是该领域的竞争非常激烈：公司正在竞相推高内存和半导体的价格。因此，谷歌正在一个比其传统业务的竞争更加激烈的环境中运营，并希望脱颖而出。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">伯克希尔可能在想什么</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">综上所述，目前的情况对谷歌来说看起来是负面的，或者至少是有风险的。尽管如此，世界上最受尊敬的金融公司之一正在买入这只股票。我们应该问问自己，考虑到谷歌每年计划数千亿美元的AI资本支出，伯克希尔从中看到了什么。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如今谷歌有几个有利因素。其中包括：</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">1、其自主设计的AI芯片，称为张量处理单元(TPU)。这使得公司对英伟达的依赖程度略低于竞争对手。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2、公司的传统业务依然强劲，在最近一期财报中披露，谷歌搜索稳定保持了90%的市场份额。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">3、公司拥有13种不同的产品，每种产品的用户都超过10亿。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">4、Google Play占据西方市场智能手机操作系统双寡头垄断的一半。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这些事实都表明，谷歌在多个不同的垂直领域具有相当大的竞争优势。当然，它们都带来了交叉销售机会，这可以从公司提供的各种订阅服务中看出，例如Google One。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯克希尔的基金经理们在商讨是否投资谷歌股票时，可能会考虑上述部分事实。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另外，一家公司在运营自己的产品和服务方面的成功，为其向云计算客户提供支持提供了保障。这些支持包括开发者工具、更持续的正常运行时间等。随着时间的推移，谷歌在开发者中的卓越声誉应该会吸引越来越多的客户使用其云计算产品。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>估值</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在考虑了上述因素后，我们可以对谷歌股票进行粗略估值。谷歌有足够多的积极因素，我们可以安全地假设其收益至少将保持在目前的水平，并且未来可能会在一定程度上增长。根据Seeking Alpha Quant的数据，谷歌在过去12个月(TTM)期间的每股收益为13.25美元。按10年期国债收益率4.5%折现，推出谷歌的股价值294美元。这显著低于今天的价格。然而，回想一下之前罗列的公司优势，就相对于竞争对手的地位而言，谷歌是一家非常强大的公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此，它很可能会随着美国经济的增长而在某种程度上增长。如果你只设定3%的永续增长假设，这低于长期GDP增速，那么目标价格将升至833美元。从历史上看，谷歌的收益和FCF增长远好于3%。因此，这里有充分的理由认为谷歌的股价还有很长的路要走。但A.J.Button实际上并不打算将目标价定为833美元，因为“永续增长”是一个很难预测是否会发生的指标。但即使假设未来10年平稳增长，也很容易得出500美元的目标价。所以，A.J.Button认为谷歌仍然是一个值得买入的标的。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>伯克希尔为何此时买入？融资800亿美元豪赌AI，谷歌回调后值得买入吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n伯克希尔为何此时买入？融资800亿美元豪赌AI，谷歌回调后值得买入吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-06-03 17:05 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1449573.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>谷歌母公司Alphabet(GOOG,GOOGL.US)近期宣布将进行一轮高达800亿美元的融资，旨在为AI发展筹集资金，其中包括伯克希尔·哈撒韦(BRK.US)以每股约350美元的价格进行的100亿美元投资。谷歌投资者对伯克希尔·哈撒韦的投资消息反应冷淡，股价在周二大幅下挫。投资者在此消息后抛售并不令人意外，因为他们可能认为伯克希尔是以牺牲谷歌现有股东利益为代价达成了一笔划算的交易。然而，当我们...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1449573.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46029346cc3e64319c2b318fd1af0381","relate_stocks":{"LU0557290698.USD":"施罗德环球可持续增长基金","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","LU2023250504.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU1989764748.USD":"东方汇理环球颠覆性机遇A2 Acc","LU1121112475.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL FRANCHISE \"A\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU1119994496.HKD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (HKD) 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ACC"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1449573.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2640722739","content_text":"谷歌母公司Alphabet(GOOG,GOOGL.US)近期宣布将进行一轮高达800亿美元的融资，旨在为AI发展筹集资金，其中包括伯克希尔·哈撒韦(BRK.US)以每股约350美元的价格进行的100亿美元投资。谷歌投资者对伯克希尔·哈撒韦的投资消息反应冷淡，股价在周二大幅下挫。投资者在此消息后抛售并不令人意外，因为他们可能认为伯克希尔是以牺牲谷歌现有股东利益为代价达成了一笔划算的交易。然而，当我们审视谷歌将如何使用这笔募集资金时，就会发现这笔支出很可能是值得的。谷歌选择在此时增发股票并不令人意外。公司正处于大规模AI建设的中期，且其股价距离历史高点不远。它既面临着巨大的投资机遇，股价又处于急剧攀升的高位，这正是增发股票融资的经典时机。因此，谷歌及其股东正处在诸多利好之中。这就引出了一个问题：这场盛宴还能持续多久?虽然谷歌无疑是一家伟大的公司，未来多年仍将保持卓越，但其股价已达到去年年初很少有投资者预期到的高位。伯克希尔认为谷歌值得投资，但显然，它正在以折扣价入场。纯粹基于价格动能来看，谷歌的涨势或许不太可能持续。回顾过去六个月、一年和五年期间谷歌的巨大涨幅，可能会直觉地认为该股票即将迎来回调。但当审视谷歌的基本面时，会发现一个完全不同的故事。谷歌盈利能力极强，拥有高利润率和资本回报率。对于如此体量的公司而言，其增长速度也极快，过去12个月的收益增长了22%。尽管表现如此出色，与其所在板块相比，该公司的估值仍处于低位，市盈率为29倍，而纳斯达克100指数的市盈率超过30倍。因此，无论是基于历史表现还是当前价值，谷歌似乎都是一个不错的选择。与任何公司一样，难点在于确定谷歌的强劲表现能否延续到未来。谷歌建立在强大且互联的产品与服务“生态系统”之上，拥有宽阔的护城河，其中几个产品拥有数十亿用户，这也是推动其股价飙升至350美元以上的主要动力。然而，当前科技世界发生了许多变化，包括AI领域竞争的加剧，这正是谷歌目前大力投资的细分领域。因此，鉴于谷歌已取得的收益及其行业发生的变化，谷歌的投资逻辑也需要被重新审视。分析师A.J.Button曾在4月30日分析谷歌股票时，给予其“买入”评级，理由是它在稳步增长的同时，资本支出(CAPEX)巨额增长。高昂的资本支出是其评价“买入”而非“强力买入”的原因。自那以后，谷歌的股价有所下跌。当前略低的价格可能是买入机会，但另一方面，AI投资领域的竞争比几年前的搜索领域要激烈得多。因此，我们需要确信谷歌仍然是几年前那个清晰且毫无疑问值得买入的公司。谷歌的股权融资自从A.J.Button上次发布分析谷歌的文章以来，发生的第一个重大变化是该公司多年来首次增发股票。此次筹集的资金高达800亿美元，数额巨大。因此，值得探讨Alphabet通过稀释股东权益换取800亿美元究竟得到了什么。根据谷歌刚刚宣布的配售新闻稿，公司计划将这800亿美元用于AI计算和基础设施，这意味着数据中心、服务器和其他半导体是运行谷歌众多AI应用所必需的。这些应用既包括内含AI的产品(如搜索、YouTube、Google Drive)，也包括向第三方开发者出售算力的Google Cloud。正是在第二类业务中，情况开始变得有些复杂。Google Cloud是谷歌业务中相对较新的部分，于2023年首次实现盈利。它在一个竞争激烈的领域运营，面临着来自亚马逊(AMZN.US)AWS和微软(MSFT.US)Azure等竞争对手的重大挑战。这绝对不像谷歌搜索那样是“独家生意”，尽管可以说谷歌搜索至今依然拥有这种地位。谷歌与上述另外两家云公司在向网络开发者出售AI服务器时间方面相互竞争。最近很大一部分业务是将英伟达(NVDA.US)芯片的使用作为一种服务来销售。云业务也有软件部分，例如托管开发者工具，开发者可以利用这些工具充分利用他们租用的服务器，而在这个业务中存在一些差异化的空间。例如，公司可以在自己的云上独家提供专有的应用程序作为开发者工具。然而，这个空间肯定竞争激烈，“七巨头”中的三家公司都在争夺相同的业务，甲骨文(ORCL.US)等较小的参与者以及几家中国公司也在努力进入这一领域。到目前为止，尽管面临竞争，谷歌的云部门似乎仍能盈利。在最近一个季度，该部门的营业利润为65亿美元，同比增长200%，这无疑是个积极信号。然而，该公司在同一时期也出现了自由现金流的环比下降，第一季度FCF低于去年第四季度FCF。这主要是由于AI建设导致的巨额现金流出，谷歌估计2026年全年的资本支出将在1800亿至1900亿美元之间。公司的收益依然稳健，但其现金流表现波动较大，最近几个季度显示出同比或环比下降。这些巨额现金支出反映了云业务的竞争性质。谷歌搜索的运行成本相对较低，只需少量支出就能产生巨额广告收入，而这些新的AI业务实际上正在消耗大量现金。部分原因是该领域的竞争非常激烈：公司正在竞相推高内存和半导体的价格。因此，谷歌正在一个比其传统业务的竞争更加激烈的环境中运营，并希望脱颖而出。伯克希尔可能在想什么综上所述，目前的情况对谷歌来说看起来是负面的，或者至少是有风险的。尽管如此，世界上最受尊敬的金融公司之一正在买入这只股票。我们应该问问自己，考虑到谷歌每年计划数千亿美元的AI资本支出，伯克希尔从中看到了什么。如今谷歌有几个有利因素。其中包括：1、其自主设计的AI芯片，称为张量处理单元(TPU)。这使得公司对英伟达的依赖程度略低于竞争对手。2、公司的传统业务依然强劲，在最近一期财报中披露，谷歌搜索稳定保持了90%的市场份额。3、公司拥有13种不同的产品，每种产品的用户都超过10亿。4、Google Play占据西方市场智能手机操作系统双寡头垄断的一半。这些事实都表明，谷歌在多个不同的垂直领域具有相当大的竞争优势。当然，它们都带来了交叉销售机会，这可以从公司提供的各种订阅服务中看出，例如Google One。伯克希尔的基金经理们在商讨是否投资谷歌股票时，可能会考虑上述部分事实。另外，一家公司在运营自己的产品和服务方面的成功，为其向云计算客户提供支持提供了保障。这些支持包括开发者工具、更持续的正常运行时间等。随着时间的推移，谷歌在开发者中的卓越声誉应该会吸引越来越多的客户使用其云计算产品。估值在考虑了上述因素后，我们可以对谷歌股票进行粗略估值。谷歌有足够多的积极因素，我们可以安全地假设其收益至少将保持在目前的水平，并且未来可能会在一定程度上增长。根据Seeking Alpha Quant的数据，谷歌在过去12个月(TTM)期间的每股收益为13.25美元。按10年期国债收益率4.5%折现，推出谷歌的股价值294美元。这显著低于今天的价格。然而，回想一下之前罗列的公司优势，就相对于竞争对手的地位而言，谷歌是一家非常强大的公司。因此，它很可能会随着美国经济的增长而在某种程度上增长。如果你只设定3%的永续增长假设，这低于长期GDP增速，那么目标价格将升至833美元。从历史上看，谷歌的收益和FCF增长远好于3%。因此，这里有充分的理由认为谷歌的股价还有很长的路要走。但A.J.Button实际上并不打算将目标价定为833美元，因为“永续增长”是一个很难预测是否会发生的指标。但即使假设未来10年平稳增长，也很容易得出500美元的目标价。所以，A.J.Button认为谷歌仍然是一个值得买入的标的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":2,"GOOGL":1.98,"BRKD":0.6,"GOOY":0.6,"GOOX":0.6,"GGLS":0.6,"GOU":0.6,"GGLL":0.6,"BRK.B":1.91,"BRKW":0.6,"GOOW":0.6,"GOOP":0.6,"BRKU":0.6,"GOOG":2,"BRKC":0.6}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":571204514365600,"gmtCreate":1780478406733,"gmtModify":1780479141058,"author":{"id":"3558909450416751","authorId":"3558909450416751","name":"superchance","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0913e949e666ea90407a6f8bf3bba2f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[],"idStr":"3558909450416751","authorIdStr":"3558909450416751"},"htmlText":"打折了当然买入","listText":"打折了当然买入","text":"打折了当然买入","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/571204514365600","repostId":2640722739,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2640722739","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1780477550,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2640722739?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-03 17:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"伯克希尔为何此时买入？融资800亿美元豪赌AI，谷歌回调后值得买入吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2640722739","media":"智通财经","summary":"尽管谷歌宣布800亿美元股权融资引发短期股价下跌，但凭借其在AI基础设施的激进投入、深厚的护城河及被低估的基本面，加之伯克希尔·哈撒韦的逆势背书，该股在长期仍具显著投资价值。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司Alphabet(GOOG,GOOGL.US)近期宣布将进行一轮高达800亿美元的融资，旨在为AI发展筹集资金，其中包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>·哈撒韦(BRK.US)以每股约350美元的价格进行的100亿美元投资。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>投资者对伯克希尔·哈撒韦的投资消息反应冷淡，股价在周二大幅下挫。投资者在此消息后抛售并不令人意外，因为他们可能认为伯克希尔是以牺牲谷歌现有股东利益为代价达成了一笔划算的交易。然而，当我们审视谷歌将如何使用这笔募集资金时，就会发现这笔支出很可能是值得的。谷歌选择在此时增发股票并不令人意外。公司正处于大规模AI建设的中期，且其股价距离历史高点不远。它既面临着巨大的投资机遇，股价又处于急剧攀升的高位，这正是增发股票融资的经典时机。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此，谷歌及其股东正处在诸多利好之中。这就引出了一个问题：这场盛宴还能持续多久?虽然谷歌无疑是一家伟大的公司，未来多年仍将保持卓越，但其股价已达到去年年初很少有投资者预期到的高位。伯克希尔认为谷歌值得投资，但显然，它正在以折扣价入场。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">纯粹基于价格动能来看，谷歌的涨势或许不太可能持续。回顾过去六个月、一年和五年期间谷歌的巨大涨幅，可能会直觉地认为该股票即将迎来回调。但当审视谷歌的基本面时，会发现一个完全不同的故事。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">谷歌盈利能力极强，拥有高利润率和资本回报率。对于如此体量的公司而言，其增长速度也极快，过去12个月的收益增长了22%。尽管表现如此出色，与其所在板块相比，该公司的估值仍处于低位，市盈率为29倍，而纳斯达克100指数的市盈率超过30倍。因此，无论是基于历史表现还是当前价值，谷歌似乎都是一个不错的选择。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与任何公司一样，难点在于确定谷歌的强劲表现能否延续到未来。谷歌建立在强大且互联的产品与服务“生态系统”之上，拥有宽阔的护城河，其中几个产品拥有数十亿用户，这也是推动其股价飙升至350美元以上的主要动力。然而，当前科技世界发生了许多变化，包括AI领域竞争的加剧，这正是谷歌目前大力投资的细分领域。因此，鉴于谷歌已取得的收益及其行业发生的变化，谷歌的投资逻辑也需要被重新审视。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析师A.J.Button曾在4月30日分析谷歌股票时，给予其“买入”评级，理由是它在稳步增长的同时，资本支出(CAPEX)巨额增长。高昂的资本支出是其评价“买入”而非“强力买入”的原因。自那以后，谷歌的股价有所下跌。当前略低的价格可能是买入机会，但另一方面，AI投资领域的竞争比几年前的搜索领域要激烈得多。因此，我们需要确信谷歌仍然是几年前那个清晰且毫无疑问<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300785\">值得买</a>入的公司。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">谷歌的股权融资</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">自从A.J.Button上次发布分析谷歌的文章以来，发生的第一个重大变化是该公司多年来首次增发股票。此次筹集的资金高达800亿美元，数额巨大。因此，值得探讨Alphabet通过稀释股东权益换取800亿美元究竟得到了什么。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根据谷歌刚刚宣布的配售新闻稿，公司计划将这800亿美元用于AI计算和基础设施，这意味着数据中心、服务器和其他半导体是运行谷歌众多AI应用所必需的。这些应用既包括内含AI的产品(如搜索、YouTube、Google Drive)，也包括向第三方开发者出售算力的Google Cloud。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">正是在第二类业务中，情况开始变得有些复杂。Google Cloud是谷歌业务中相对较新的部分，于2023年首次实现盈利。它在一个竞争激烈的领域运营，面临着来自<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>(AMZN.US)AWS和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>(MSFT.US)Azure等竞争对手的重大挑战。这绝对不像谷歌搜索那样是“独家生意”，尽管可以说谷歌搜索至今依然拥有这种地位。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">谷歌与上述另外两家云公司在向网络开发者出售AI服务器时间方面相互竞争。最近很大一部分业务是将<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>(NVDA.US)芯片的使用作为一种服务来销售。云业务也有软件部分，例如托管开发者工具，开发者可以利用这些工具充分利用他们租用的服务器，而在这个业务中存在一些差异化的空间。例如，公司可以在自己的云上独家提供专有的应用程序作为开发者工具。然而，这个空间肯定竞争激烈，“七巨头”中的三家公司都在争夺相同的业务，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>(ORCL.US)等较小的参与者以及几家中国公司也在努力进入这一领域。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">到目前为止，尽管面临竞争，谷歌的云部门似乎仍能盈利。在最近一个季度，该部门的营业利润为65亿美元，同比增长200%，这无疑是个积极信号。然而，该公司在同一时期也出现了自由现金流的环比下降，第一季度FCF低于去年第四季度FCF。这主要是由于AI建设导致的巨额现金流出，谷歌估计2026年全年的资本支出将在1800亿至1900亿美元之间。公司的收益依然稳健，但其现金流表现波动较大，最近几个季度显示出同比或环比下降。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这些巨额现金支出反映了云业务的竞争性质。谷歌搜索的运行成本相对较低，只需少量支出就能产生巨额广告收入，而这些新的AI业务实际上正在消耗大量现金。部分原因是该领域的竞争非常激烈：公司正在竞相推高内存和半导体的价格。因此，谷歌正在一个比其传统业务的竞争更加激烈的环境中运营，并希望脱颖而出。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">伯克希尔可能在想什么</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">综上所述，目前的情况对谷歌来说看起来是负面的，或者至少是有风险的。尽管如此，世界上最受尊敬的金融公司之一正在买入这只股票。我们应该问问自己，考虑到谷歌每年计划数千亿美元的AI资本支出，伯克希尔从中看到了什么。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如今谷歌有几个有利因素。其中包括：</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">1、其自主设计的AI芯片，称为张量处理单元(TPU)。这使得公司对英伟达的依赖程度略低于竞争对手。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2、公司的传统业务依然强劲，在最近一期财报中披露，谷歌搜索稳定保持了90%的市场份额。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">3、公司拥有13种不同的产品，每种产品的用户都超过10亿。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">4、Google Play占据西方市场智能手机操作系统双寡头垄断的一半。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这些事实都表明，谷歌在多个不同的垂直领域具有相当大的竞争优势。当然，它们都带来了交叉销售机会，这可以从公司提供的各种订阅服务中看出，例如Google One。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">伯克希尔的基金经理们在商讨是否投资谷歌股票时，可能会考虑上述部分事实。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">另外，一家公司在运营自己的产品和服务方面的成功，为其向云计算客户提供支持提供了保障。这些支持包括开发者工具、更持续的正常运行时间等。随着时间的推移，谷歌在开发者中的卓越声誉应该会吸引越来越多的客户使用其云计算产品。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>估值</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在考虑了上述因素后，我们可以对谷歌股票进行粗略估值。谷歌有足够多的积极因素，我们可以安全地假设其收益至少将保持在目前的水平，并且未来可能会在一定程度上增长。根据Seeking Alpha Quant的数据，谷歌在过去12个月(TTM)期间的每股收益为13.25美元。按10年期国债收益率4.5%折现，推出谷歌的股价值294美元。这显著低于今天的价格。然而，回想一下之前罗列的公司优势，就相对于竞争对手的地位而言，谷歌是一家非常强大的公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">因此，它很可能会随着美国经济的增长而在某种程度上增长。如果你只设定3%的永续增长假设，这低于长期GDP增速，那么目标价格将升至833美元。从历史上看，谷歌的收益和FCF增长远好于3%。因此，这里有充分的理由认为谷歌的股价还有很长的路要走。但A.J.Button实际上并不打算将目标价定为833美元，因为“永续增长”是一个很难预测是否会发生的指标。但即使假设未来10年平稳增长，也很容易得出500美元的目标价。所以，A.J.Button认为谷歌仍然是一个值得买入的标的。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>伯克希尔为何此时买入？融资800亿美元豪赌AI，谷歌回调后值得买入吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n伯克希尔为何此时买入？融资800亿美元豪赌AI，谷歌回调后值得买入吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-06-03 17:05 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1449573.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>谷歌母公司Alphabet(GOOG,GOOGL.US)近期宣布将进行一轮高达800亿美元的融资，旨在为AI发展筹集资金，其中包括伯克希尔·哈撒韦(BRK.US)以每股约350美元的价格进行的100亿美元投资。谷歌投资者对伯克希尔·哈撒韦的投资消息反应冷淡，股价在周二大幅下挫。投资者在此消息后抛售并不令人意外，因为他们可能认为伯克希尔是以牺牲谷歌现有股东利益为代价达成了一笔划算的交易。然而，当我们...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1449573.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46029346cc3e64319c2b318fd1af0381","relate_stocks":{"LU0557290698.USD":"施罗德环球可持续增长基金","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","LU2023250504.SGD":"Allianz Thematica Cl AMg DIS H2-SGD","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU1989764748.USD":"东方汇理环球颠覆性机遇A2 Acc","LU1121112475.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL FRANCHISE \"A\" (USDHDG) ACC","LU1119994496.HKD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (HKD) 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ACC"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1449573.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2640722739","content_text":"谷歌母公司Alphabet(GOOG,GOOGL.US)近期宣布将进行一轮高达800亿美元的融资，旨在为AI发展筹集资金，其中包括伯克希尔·哈撒韦(BRK.US)以每股约350美元的价格进行的100亿美元投资。谷歌投资者对伯克希尔·哈撒韦的投资消息反应冷淡，股价在周二大幅下挫。投资者在此消息后抛售并不令人意外，因为他们可能认为伯克希尔是以牺牲谷歌现有股东利益为代价达成了一笔划算的交易。然而，当我们审视谷歌将如何使用这笔募集资金时，就会发现这笔支出很可能是值得的。谷歌选择在此时增发股票并不令人意外。公司正处于大规模AI建设的中期，且其股价距离历史高点不远。它既面临着巨大的投资机遇，股价又处于急剧攀升的高位，这正是增发股票融资的经典时机。因此，谷歌及其股东正处在诸多利好之中。这就引出了一个问题：这场盛宴还能持续多久?虽然谷歌无疑是一家伟大的公司，未来多年仍将保持卓越，但其股价已达到去年年初很少有投资者预期到的高位。伯克希尔认为谷歌值得投资，但显然，它正在以折扣价入场。纯粹基于价格动能来看，谷歌的涨势或许不太可能持续。回顾过去六个月、一年和五年期间谷歌的巨大涨幅，可能会直觉地认为该股票即将迎来回调。但当审视谷歌的基本面时，会发现一个完全不同的故事。谷歌盈利能力极强，拥有高利润率和资本回报率。对于如此体量的公司而言，其增长速度也极快，过去12个月的收益增长了22%。尽管表现如此出色，与其所在板块相比，该公司的估值仍处于低位，市盈率为29倍，而纳斯达克100指数的市盈率超过30倍。因此，无论是基于历史表现还是当前价值，谷歌似乎都是一个不错的选择。与任何公司一样，难点在于确定谷歌的强劲表现能否延续到未来。谷歌建立在强大且互联的产品与服务“生态系统”之上，拥有宽阔的护城河，其中几个产品拥有数十亿用户，这也是推动其股价飙升至350美元以上的主要动力。然而，当前科技世界发生了许多变化，包括AI领域竞争的加剧，这正是谷歌目前大力投资的细分领域。因此，鉴于谷歌已取得的收益及其行业发生的变化，谷歌的投资逻辑也需要被重新审视。分析师A.J.Button曾在4月30日分析谷歌股票时，给予其“买入”评级，理由是它在稳步增长的同时，资本支出(CAPEX)巨额增长。高昂的资本支出是其评价“买入”而非“强力买入”的原因。自那以后，谷歌的股价有所下跌。当前略低的价格可能是买入机会，但另一方面，AI投资领域的竞争比几年前的搜索领域要激烈得多。因此，我们需要确信谷歌仍然是几年前那个清晰且毫无疑问值得买入的公司。谷歌的股权融资自从A.J.Button上次发布分析谷歌的文章以来，发生的第一个重大变化是该公司多年来首次增发股票。此次筹集的资金高达800亿美元，数额巨大。因此，值得探讨Alphabet通过稀释股东权益换取800亿美元究竟得到了什么。根据谷歌刚刚宣布的配售新闻稿，公司计划将这800亿美元用于AI计算和基础设施，这意味着数据中心、服务器和其他半导体是运行谷歌众多AI应用所必需的。这些应用既包括内含AI的产品(如搜索、YouTube、Google Drive)，也包括向第三方开发者出售算力的Google Cloud。正是在第二类业务中，情况开始变得有些复杂。Google Cloud是谷歌业务中相对较新的部分，于2023年首次实现盈利。它在一个竞争激烈的领域运营，面临着来自亚马逊(AMZN.US)AWS和微软(MSFT.US)Azure等竞争对手的重大挑战。这绝对不像谷歌搜索那样是“独家生意”，尽管可以说谷歌搜索至今依然拥有这种地位。谷歌与上述另外两家云公司在向网络开发者出售AI服务器时间方面相互竞争。最近很大一部分业务是将英伟达(NVDA.US)芯片的使用作为一种服务来销售。云业务也有软件部分，例如托管开发者工具，开发者可以利用这些工具充分利用他们租用的服务器，而在这个业务中存在一些差异化的空间。例如，公司可以在自己的云上独家提供专有的应用程序作为开发者工具。然而，这个空间肯定竞争激烈，“七巨头”中的三家公司都在争夺相同的业务，甲骨文(ORCL.US)等较小的参与者以及几家中国公司也在努力进入这一领域。到目前为止，尽管面临竞争，谷歌的云部门似乎仍能盈利。在最近一个季度，该部门的营业利润为65亿美元，同比增长200%，这无疑是个积极信号。然而，该公司在同一时期也出现了自由现金流的环比下降，第一季度FCF低于去年第四季度FCF。这主要是由于AI建设导致的巨额现金流出，谷歌估计2026年全年的资本支出将在1800亿至1900亿美元之间。公司的收益依然稳健，但其现金流表现波动较大，最近几个季度显示出同比或环比下降。这些巨额现金支出反映了云业务的竞争性质。谷歌搜索的运行成本相对较低，只需少量支出就能产生巨额广告收入，而这些新的AI业务实际上正在消耗大量现金。部分原因是该领域的竞争非常激烈：公司正在竞相推高内存和半导体的价格。因此，谷歌正在一个比其传统业务的竞争更加激烈的环境中运营，并希望脱颖而出。伯克希尔可能在想什么综上所述，目前的情况对谷歌来说看起来是负面的，或者至少是有风险的。尽管如此，世界上最受尊敬的金融公司之一正在买入这只股票。我们应该问问自己，考虑到谷歌每年计划数千亿美元的AI资本支出，伯克希尔从中看到了什么。如今谷歌有几个有利因素。其中包括：1、其自主设计的AI芯片，称为张量处理单元(TPU)。这使得公司对英伟达的依赖程度略低于竞争对手。2、公司的传统业务依然强劲，在最近一期财报中披露，谷歌搜索稳定保持了90%的市场份额。3、公司拥有13种不同的产品，每种产品的用户都超过10亿。4、Google Play占据西方市场智能手机操作系统双寡头垄断的一半。这些事实都表明，谷歌在多个不同的垂直领域具有相当大的竞争优势。当然，它们都带来了交叉销售机会，这可以从公司提供的各种订阅服务中看出，例如Google One。伯克希尔的基金经理们在商讨是否投资谷歌股票时，可能会考虑上述部分事实。另外，一家公司在运营自己的产品和服务方面的成功，为其向云计算客户提供支持提供了保障。这些支持包括开发者工具、更持续的正常运行时间等。随着时间的推移，谷歌在开发者中的卓越声誉应该会吸引越来越多的客户使用其云计算产品。估值在考虑了上述因素后，我们可以对谷歌股票进行粗略估值。谷歌有足够多的积极因素，我们可以安全地假设其收益至少将保持在目前的水平，并且未来可能会在一定程度上增长。根据Seeking Alpha Quant的数据，谷歌在过去12个月(TTM)期间的每股收益为13.25美元。按10年期国债收益率4.5%折现，推出谷歌的股价值294美元。这显著低于今天的价格。然而，回想一下之前罗列的公司优势，就相对于竞争对手的地位而言，谷歌是一家非常强大的公司。因此，它很可能会随着美国经济的增长而在某种程度上增长。如果你只设定3%的永续增长假设，这低于长期GDP增速，那么目标价格将升至833美元。从历史上看，谷歌的收益和FCF增长远好于3%。因此，这里有充分的理由认为谷歌的股价还有很长的路要走。但A.J.Button实际上并不打算将目标价定为833美元，因为“永续增长”是一个很难预测是否会发生的指标。但即使假设未来10年平稳增长，也很容易得出500美元的目标价。所以，A.J.Button认为谷歌仍然是一个值得买入的标的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":2,"GOOGL":1.98,"BRKD":0.6,"GOOY":0.6,"GOOX":0.6,"GGLS":0.6,"GOU":0.6,"GGLL":0.6,"BRK.B":1.91,"BRKW":0.6,"GOOW":0.6,"GOOP":0.6,"BRKU":0.6,"GOOG":2,"BRKC":0.6}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":3,"favoriteSize":9,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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