小米再陷定价角力，缘何埋下机构分歧伏笔？

21世纪经济报道05-27

5月27日，小米集团（1810.HK）报收于28.4港元/股，盘中创年内新低。成交额82.69亿港元，单日市值缩水约351亿港元，收盘市值为7338亿港元。　　这或是市场对小米昨日晚间公布财报的反应。按披露数据，小米一季度实现总收入991亿元，经调整净利润61亿元。　　在存储成本压力与新业务高投入的双重挤压下，这份季报表现实则并不出人意料。　　真正值得关注的是，支撑小米去年股价冲高至60港元以上的...

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Why did it lay the foreshadowing of institutional differences?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47448a12a0756023194bfe760a3a4c70","symbols_score_info":{"81810":0.6,"XIACY":1.98,"MIUmain":0.6,"01810":1.98,"HXXD.SI":0.6},"content_text":"5月27日，小米集团（1810.HK）报收于28.4港元/股，盘中创年内新低。成交额82.69亿港元，单日市值缩水约351亿港元，收盘市值为7338亿港元。　　这或是市场对小米昨日晚间公布财报的反应。按披露数据，小米一季度实现总收入991亿元，经调整净利润61亿元。　　在存储成本压力与新业务高投入的双重挤压下，这份季报表现实则并不出人意料。　　真正值得关注的是，支撑小米去年股价冲高至60港元以上的投资逻辑，如今是否依然成立；各大机构对此早已产生明显分歧，各方给出的目标价差异幅度接近60%。　　究竟该以消费电子周期、新能源车企，还是AI生态的逻辑为小米估值？本次一季报，提供了一些新的参考依据。　　机构分歧早已显现　　在小米一季报正式发布前，各家机构就已对其未来价值作出截然不同的判断。　　汇丰在4月29日发布研报称，小米电动车业务进展优于市场预期，维持买入评级，目标价53.4港元。　　交银国际3月26日发布研报，维持中性评级，目标价37港元。该行认为存储成本压力仍在持续，手机业务后续发展承压，同时建议持续关注AI创新、汽车出海以及AIoT高端化进展。报告采用SOTP（分部估值法），以2026年数据为基准，给予手机×AIoT业务22倍市盈率，汽车及AI业务1.4倍市销率。　　华兴资本3月19日发布研报，对小米维持买入评级，目标价44港元。机构判断，受存储价格企稳、小米“龙虾”智能体Miclaw推动产品高端化带动ASP（平均销售价格）上行等因素影响，小米手机毛利率有望在2026年底迎来改善。更关键的是，华兴资本认为，小米正从硬件科技企业向“操作系统级智能体入口”完成战略升级，这套跨端生态的价值尚未被市场充分认知。该目标价基于2027年预期市盈率15倍测算。　　此外，花旗同样给予小米买入评级，目标价区间40至42港元，机构看好AI业务发展，认为相关赛道将持续收获市场关注。高盛此前维持买入评级，目标价41港元，其预测小米2026年电动汽车全年交付目标为55万辆，对应总出货量预计可达56万辆，其中SU7车型约22万辆，YU7车型约21.5万辆。　　第一上海证券维持买入评级，目标价36.3港元，同样采用SOTP分部估值法：传统硬件业务对应15倍市盈率，互联网业务20倍市盈率，汽车业务1.5倍市销率。机构同时预测，小米2026至2028年经调整净利润将分别达到340亿元、449亿元、583亿元。　　综合来看，各家机构给出的目标价区间为36.3港元至53.4港元，价差幅度接近60%。估值区间分化的背后，是市场对小米商业模式的不同解读，分析师群体至今未能就估值逻辑达成共识。　　三套框架并不兼容　　机构分歧的根源，在于小米同时具备三类不同的业务属性，与之对应的估值逻辑相互独立、难以兼容。　　首先，小米是深度处在行业成本周期中的消费电子企业。　　以存储芯片为代表的核心零部件涨价，是本季度业绩下滑的直接诱因。这并非小米单独面临的经营问题，而是整个消费电子行业共同遭遇的周期性挑战。　　在5月26日晚间的业绩沟通会上，小米管理层将本轮零部件涨价定义为“超级周期”，该周期涨价幅度大、持续周期长，压力预计至少贯穿2026年全年。IDC行业数据也印证了这一判断，存储市场的供应紧张态势或将延续至2027年。　　受成本上行影响，小米手机业务毛利率从12.4%回落至10.1%，这一变化符合行业预期。　　同时，公司业务结构已出现明显调整，风险抵御能力持续增强。过往手机业务是集团毛利核心来源，如今单一业务的利润波动，对整体业绩的冲击已大幅减弱，这也是近几年多元化业务布局形成的缓冲效果。　　其次，小米正处于新能源汽车业务的成长爬坡期。　　汽车板块是本季度业绩波动最显著的业务线，板块季度收入从上一季度的363亿元降至190亿元，季度交付量由145115辆回落至80856辆。单看季度数据，业绩表现看似出现明显下滑，但结合实际经营背景不难发现，这是初代SU7停售、全新一代SU7完成产品迭代的过渡阶段，本季度交付主力为现有库存车辆。因车型换代出现短期交付低谷，也是主流车企产品周期中的常见现象。　　新车市场热度则展现出不同态势：新一代SU7正式发售后48天，累计锁单量突破8万台；YU7系列上市至今10个月，累计交付量达到23.2万台。全新推出的YU7 GT成功刷新纽北赛道SUV圈速纪录，YU7标准版在配置、续航对标同级竞品的同时，定价更具优势。本季度小米汽车业务经营亏损31亿元，板块毛利率为20.1%。下半年新车型集中放量后，规模效应能否帮助企业收窄亏损，将成为决定全年业绩走向的核心变量之一。　　最后，小米正在搭建完整的AI生态基础设施。这部分业务难以依靠传统财务数据量化估值，也是当前机构分歧最大的领域。　　小米的AI布局不再局限于表层应用集成，自研基座大模型MiMo-V2.5-Pro持续迭代升级，在海内外多项主流大模型评测中表现亮眼。旗下Miclaw已从手机端逐步拓展至平板、PC、带屏音箱等终端设备，全面向跨端智能助手形态演进，同时该产品也是国内首批通过中国信通院权威测评的手机端智能体。　　管理层在业绩会上明确，2026年全年AI领域投入不低于160亿元，未来五年集团累计研发投入将突破2000亿元。本季度小米研发开支达89.5亿元，同比增长33.4%，研发人员规模增至26048人，创下历史新高。在整体盈利承压的阶段依旧保持高强度研发投入，足以体现管理层对AI赛道的战略倾斜。　　一季报提供边际验证　　5月26日发布的一季报，并未彻底消除市场的估值分歧，但为各类估值逻辑提供了可落地的量化参考。　　第一，成本压力下，业务多元化对冲单一板块风险。手机毛利率从12.4%降至10.1%，印证了交银国际关于手机业务承压的判断。依托多业务布局，集团整体盈利结构得到优化，单一业务的经营压力被有效稀释。　　第二，汽车业务短期低谷不改长期向好趋势，印证了汇丰的乐观判断。小米汽车一季度交付80856辆、实现收入190亿元，板块经营亏损31亿元。短期数据表现偏弱，本质是车型迭代过渡期的阶段性现象。进入4月，汽车单月交付量突破3万台，环比增幅接近50%，复苏态势明确。下半年新车型持续放量后，亏损收窄进度将成为市场重点观察方向。　　第三，AI商业化仍处于起步阶段，但已显现积极信号。小米自研MiMo大模型完成多次版本更新，技术能力稳步提升；通过信通院测评的Miclaw，也落地到更多终端设备。尽管AI相关服务暂未形成大规模利润贡献，但华兴资本等机构依旧将其视作估值上行的核心驱动力。技术落地与盈利兑现之间存在时间差，这也是市场分歧长期存在的重要原因。　　第四，资本层面释放信心，股份回购力度加码。今年以来，小米累计股份回购金额已超80亿港元，规模超过2025年全年，同时公司新获批200亿港元回购额度。在股价持续回调阶段加大回购力度，是管理层对公司当前估值的直接表态。　　综合来看，本次一季报释放出多项边际向好信号：在行业成本压力下，核心业务经营质量实现环比改善；汽车车型换代完成后，交付量快速回暖，符合乐观预期；AI增值服务落地推进顺利，早期表现超出市场预期。　　站在当前节点，市场对小米的价值判断，最终聚焦三大时间维度问题：存储成本的上行周期何时见顶、汽车业务能否在下半年实现亏损实质性收窄，以及AI订阅、跨端智能服务能否在未来两年形成稳定、可量化的利润贡献。（文章来源：21世纪经济报道）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.3","shortVersion":"4.42.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2638685834","isCrawlerRequest":true}