中金：恒指季检调整后工业与医疗保健业覆盖度提升，6只股票或纳入港股通

智通财经05-25

智通财经APP获悉，中金公司发布研报称，恒生指数公司公布了其定期的季度指数调整结果，此次调整范围涵盖港股主要旗舰指数如恒生、国企指数和恒生科技指数。在行业覆盖度与代表性上，工业与医疗保健业市场覆盖度有所提升。参照恒指公司的行业分类，此次恒指调整后，对于医疗保健业的覆盖度从38.8%提升至44.3%，对于工业的覆盖度从54.3%提升至56.0%。此外，直接决定港股通可投资范围的恒生综合指数同样调整。...

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恒生指数：此次调整纳入百济神州(权重1.30%)、极兔速递-W(权重0.30%)以及中国铝业(权重0.24%)，调整后成分股数量提升至93只。2) 恒生国企：此次调整纳入翰森制药与康方生物，纳入权重分别为0.46%与0.76%，调整后成分股数量维持50只不变。3) 恒生科技：此次调整纳入智谱与Minimax-W，纳入权重分别为0.53%与0.36%，调整后成分股数量维持50只不变。资金流向测算：基于Bloomberg汇总，追踪恒生指数ETF资金规模约为277.6亿美元，追踪国企和恒生科技指数的ETF规模分别约为86.0亿美元和520.4亿美元。结合上述成分和权重变化，进一步结合个股过去3个月日均成交额，该行测算被动资金变化可能带来的影响。智谱、MiniMax-W纳入恒科，会如何表现?本次恒生科技纳入两家大模型公司智谱与Minimax-W，符合预期也符合恒指公司优化恒生科技指数拥抱“新科技”的方向。中长期走势则取决于产业趋势和基本面。两家AI大模型公司上市后依赖成长预期与AI叙事表现强劲。采用市销率P/S方式判断，对比当前智谱与Minimax的营收收益率(S/P)，与1年期国债利率持平。估值是短期情绪和透支与否的一个维度，短期从赛道基本面来看，AI大模型仍处于产业发展早期，行业空间广阔，技术迭代、场景渗透与商业落地仍具备充足想象空间。对比本世纪初互联网泡沫情形，当前全球AI需求接近1998-1999年，投资强度与企业投资的能力接近2000年，二级市场接近1997-1998年。往后看，7月中美股二季度业绩可能成为关键节点，若AI仍是市场贯穿全年的核心主线，赛道景气度未发生趋势性变化，那么短期因解禁等因素引发的波动，反而可能为中长期布局创造更好的价格窗口。港股通标的调整：预计6只符合纳入条件此次是季度指数调整，因此对半年调整一次的恒生综指而言，只有符合快速纳入机制的股票才考虑纳入。该行根据此次恒生综合指数调整情况、结合港股通纳入的额外要求，预计6只或符合港股通纳入范围。此次进入恒生综合指数的Minimax-W由于其同股不同权性质，需额外满足上市满6个月及20个交易日的条件，因此不会在本次6月调整中进入港股通。若后续满足市值与成交额要求，有望于8月纳入港股通。调整后指数特征：医疗保健、资讯科技与工业占比提升，金融与消费占比下滑指数扩容：本次恒指成分股数量增加至93只。根据恒指公司2021年3月发布的咨询结果[4]，恒生指数成分股将在2022年中前增加至80只，最终固定在100只，目前仍在朝此目标扩容中。行业覆盖度与代表性：工业与医疗保健业市场覆盖度有所提升。参照恒指公司的行业分类(即7个行业分类)，此次恒指调整后，对于医疗保健业的覆盖度从38.8%提升至44.3%，对于工业的覆盖度从54.3%提升至56.0%。行业占比：医疗保健、资讯科技与工业占比有所提升，但金融、消费与公用事业及电讯业等有所下滑。此次调整后，恒指新经济市值占比从当前的47.5%小幅抬升至48.9%。行业层面，医疗保健业、工业以及资讯科技业占比有所提升，分别从当前的3.6%、11.5%和14.8%抬升至4.7%、11.8%与15.5%，不过金融业以及公用事业及电讯业本次占比有所下滑，从当前的33.8%和6.7%下降至32.5%和6.4%。调整时间表：6月8日正式生效上述指数调整结果将于6月8日(星期一)正式生效。在此期间，部分主动型资金仍不排除会根据调整公布结果采取一定的套利操作，但被动资金为了最大程度减少追踪误差将选择在生效前一个交易日(即6月5日)调仓。该行预计届时相关股票成交或可能出现远大于平时的“异常放量”，特别是在尾盘。图表：此次调整后，恒指对于医疗保健业与工业的覆盖度有所提升图表：行业占比中，资讯科技、医疗保健与工业占比抬升，但金融占比有所下滑图表：追踪恒生指数、恒生国企指数和恒生科技指数的ETF基金规模","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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