黄金，再跌也不能买了？

21世纪经济报道09:30

近日，现货黄金接连出现下跌行情，北京时间19日晚间，现货黄金失守4500美元/盎司，日跌超2%。截至 20日发稿，现货黄金报 4498.98美元/盎司，年初至今涨幅仅上涨 4.1 9 %，但自年初最高点（1月29日，5598.75美元/盎司）至今跌幅约 20%。金价于历史高位大幅波动，让市场...

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9     %，但自年初最高点（1月29日，5598.75美元/盎司）     至今     跌幅     约     20%。金价于历史高位大幅波动，     让市场对黄金的避险属性生疑。贵金属行情      截图自     Wind客户端黄金不是股票等资产的避险工具星展银行（中国）高级投资策略师邓志坚向中新经纬表示，不是一直不涨就是避险资产，也不是大跌就成了风险资产。黄金避开的不是股市和债市的风险，而是对冲美元风险。邓志坚认为，当前，全球非美国盟友以外的主要央行几乎都在去美债化、增持黄金。短期内因中东地缘政治问题，部分依赖原油的国家正在抛售黄金，但局势稳定后会变为增持。据邓志坚观察，过去     20年，美国因通胀导致实际利率为负的月份占绝大多数，但美联储从未在刚进入负值时马上加息。实际利率为负已是常态，美联储需要更充分数据才会紧缩。加息压制黄金的逻辑虽然成立，但时间远远没到。从1998年至今，     （     美联储     ）     四次停止降息到下一轮加息结束的周期中，黄金仅有一次出现小幅下跌，其余三次均录得显著上涨。所以停止降息或加息，不代表黄金只会下跌。邓志坚指出，唯一能把黄金拉入风险资产的因素是其波动率较大，经常大涨大跌。 除非坚信美元必须涨，否则黄金是最佳的对冲美元工具。但黄金不是股票、债券、商品等资产的避险工具。 在中长期而言，黄金依然受地缘政治风险频发、美元中长期偏弱以及去美债化已成趋势这三个因素推动。华泰期货研究院宏观组总监徐闻宇告诉中新经纬，任何资产在短期大幅上涨后都可能面临调整，这与资产被归类为风险型还是避险型关系不大。“理解黄金，关键要看它作为一种资产的根本特性。黄金属于‘稳定性’资产，其稳定性是相对于经济增长的不稳定而言的，尤其是在现代债务型经济模式下。因此，当经济开始修复自身的不稳定问题（比如化解债务、去杠杆）时，黄金的避险作用会暂时减弱，价格承压，而股票等风险资产的吸引力反而会相对上升。”徐闻宇说。中国（香港）金融衍生品投资研究院院长王红英对中新经纬指出，从中短期角度看，近期黄金下跌仍属于技术性或波段性调整，黄金本身的投资价值并未发生根本性改变。事实上，包括中国央行在内的多国央行仍在持续增持黄金，而美国     10年期国债利率水平不断创出新高，未来通胀带来的黄金长期投资价值依然存在。从这个角度而言，黄金并非风险资产。黄金还能买吗？“如果只是以避险为初衷，      普通投资者适合少量增持黄金相关资产，尤其是实物金、直接跟踪金价的纸黄金和     ETF，      但是建议这类投资者不要在黄金相关资产上加杠杆， 因为这与初衷不符，偏离了自己的风险承受能力。     ”邓志坚说。徐闻宇指出，从长期来看，债务型经济在一次次的修复后会变得越来越不稳定。因此，      对于普通投资者而言，在资产组合中配置一定比例的黄金（尤其是实物黄金）始终是可行的。      至于首饰，因其包含更多消费属性，投资者根据个人需要选择即可。王红英认为，由于近期影响黄金价格走势的中短期结构性因素依然存在，例如美联储降息预期大幅降低，而通胀水平带来的中性货币政策概率进一步加大，技术上黄金仍处在调整阶段，因此不同投资者应从风险规避角度出发，近期并非买入黄金的良好时机，建议以观望为主。“从投资品种选择来看，ETF产品是首选，其投资金额或单位较小，适合普通投资者，且费率相对偏低。金条同样具有投资价值，但二次销售时折扣较大，会对投资收益产生一定影响。首饰则兼具消费与投资两种属性，消费属性更强，溢价更高，因此不适合作为投资工具。投资者应根据自身偏重投资属性、消费属性或两者兼顾，选择适合自己的黄金类产品。”王红英说。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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