40年铁律警示：美债熊市未止，美股大跌才是唯一出路

金融界05-22

来源：金十数据股债两难全！今年以来美债收益率与美股转为负相关，美股反弹倒逼收益率上行，大跌才可能带动收益率回落。BCA Research警告，美联储陷入两难，但无论加息与否股市都可能承压。英伟达一季度财报收官，大盘科技股盈利季正式落幕，但这份财报并未给市场带来提振。焦点重回伊朗战争与能源危机，随着通胀担忧推高美债收益率，股债矛盾正在激化。BCA Research策略师阿瑟·布达吉安（Arthur ...

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Budaghyan）警告，美股与债市即将“碰撞”，唯有美股遭遇大幅抛售，才能缓解美债收益率上行压力。他强调，全球股市当前风险回报比已严重失衡，高位回调是恢复市场平衡的必要条件。近期油价小幅回落，带动美债收益率短暂企稳，但基本面未改：伊朗战争陷入僵持，美伊持续释放新威胁，霍尔木兹海峡航运受限，能源供给隐患未消。地缘风险持续推升通胀预期，美债收益率易升难降，成为AI牛市的核心压制因素。策略师持续警告，近期债券市场抛售对AI驱动的牛市构成巨大挑战，若10年期美债收益率触及5%，高估值成长股估值将面临剧烈重估。通胀高企叠加经济韧性，市场对美联储加息预期升温，长端收益率上行压力加大。布达吉安分析指出，过去30年存在明确规律：每当两年期美债收益率超过联邦基金利率，美联储后续均会加息，反之亦然。目前这一信号已出现，美联储政策转向压力陡增。这位策略师指出，当前美联储陷入两难：伊朗危机持续推高能源价格，通胀压力难消，若加息，或触发美股暴跌；若维持利率不变，通胀进一步升温，债市抛售加剧，收益率上行反而更压制股市。无论选择何种路径，股市都可能出现负面反应，美联储措辞料将转向鹰派。他进一步警示，“事实上，如果美联储不加息，债券市场可能会面临进一步抛售。这是因为，当通胀上升且经济增长强劲时，央行推迟加息的时间越长，未来就越需要大幅加息。换句话说，央行加息速度落后于通胀曲线对股票和债券市场都是利空。”他说道。今年年初以来，美债收益率与美股相关性转为负值，即收益率上涨、美股下跌，这一关系当前对投资者至关重要。布达吉安指出，美股持续反弹将倒逼美债收益率继续上行；反之，美股大跌才可能带动收益率回落。他援引40年历史数据佐证：美国债券熊市从未在经济或金融市场未现重大动荡前结束，“这次大概率也不会例外”。当前AI驱动的美股牛市与高企的债券收益率形成尖锐矛盾，调整风险积聚。美国居民股票持仓规模庞大，占可支配收入比例创历史新高250%，股价上涨通过财富效应提振消费，也支撑AI企业资本开支扩张。但这种循环加剧通胀压力，与抑制通胀的政策目标相悖。布达吉安认为，美股适度回调是释放通缩压力、抵消油价与粮价通胀冲击的必要条件。只有股价回落，消费与投资降温，通胀压力才能缓解，为美联储政策转向创造空间。与BCA的悲观预警不同，华尔街主流仍持乐观态度。Yardeni Research近期将标普500指数年末目标上调至8250点，创华尔街最高预期，反映出对AI牛市延续的信心。\n\n美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>>\n\r\n            责任编辑：栎树","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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