“AI信仰”再掀狂澜！英伟达仍在定义AI牛市，华尔街憧憬市值破冲7万亿美元

智通财经05-21

5月21日，有着“地球最重要股票”以及“AI芯片霸主”称号的全球最高市值公司英伟达，在美东时间周三美股盘后公布又一份无比强劲的季度业绩以及未来业绩展望。英伟达最新业绩可谓非常清楚地凸显全球AI算力基础设施建设狂潮远未停歇，并且正在从AI GPU/AI ASIC扩展到数据中心CPU、高性能网络基础设施、整机级别服务器集群、AI超级工厂和企业级大规模AI云计算系统。在华尔街，分析师们对于“全球AI总...

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maxitong
05-21
maxitong
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ASIC扩展到数据中心CPU、高性能网络基础设施、整机级别服务器集群、AI超级工厂和企业级大规模AI云计算系统。在华尔街，分析师们对于“全球AI总龙头”英伟达的看涨情绪愈发火热，仅仅华尔街平均目标价就意味着英伟达市值有望超7万亿美元。截至发稿，英伟达股价盘初一度上扬至227美元，市值徘徊在5.35万亿美元附近。截至2026年4月26日的英伟达2027财年第一财季(“即一季度”)业绩显示，营收同比增长85%至816.2亿美元，较分析师普遍预期高将近3.1%。核心业务——数据中心业务营收约752亿美元，贡献公司九成以上营收，和总营收均继续刷新单季最高纪录，显示AI算力需求仍是英伟达增长的绝对主线。英伟达此次给出的第二财季(“即二季度”)营收指引中值约910亿美元，再创单季历史纪录，显著高于分析师预期均值，但是低于华尔街最乐观预期——即960亿至980亿美元。不过，英伟达管理层特别说明，此项业绩指引未计入来自中国的任何数据中心计算业务营收，这意味着当前指引主要依靠中国以外市场需求支撑，也为未来潜在增量留下空间。值得注意的是，美国商务部已正式批准向包括阿里巴巴、腾讯、字节跳动在内的10家中国巨头们出口英伟达H200 AI芯片，每位买家最高购买额度可达7.5万颗。这些业绩与展望都在说明北美超大规模云厂商、AI大模型公司、企业AI云和工业物理AI需求并没有明显减速，所谓“AI Capex见顶”的担忧至少在英伟达订单与指引层面尚未得到验证。更重要的是，这次英伟达给华尔街的不是单一AI GPU或者显卡增长故事，而是AI工厂经济学的狂飙式扩展版图。花旗提到，英伟达将数据中心销售拆分为Hyperscale和ACIE，有助于提高可见度;这家芯片巨头还预计今年Vera CPU销售额达到200亿美元，并提出到2030年2000亿美元CPU TAM。这意味着英伟达正在从“AI GPU龙头”升级为“GPU+CPU+网络基础设施+机架级系统+CUDA开发者软件生态”的AI基础设施平台公司，甚至暴力切入过去由英特尔与AMD这两大x86芯片巨头长期主导的数据中心服务器CPU价值池。AI浪潮没有刹车键!英伟达再度征服华尔街对于一家体量如此庞大的公司而言，英伟达最新业绩和指引可谓令华尔街分析师们印象极其深刻，散户投资者们显然也注意到了这一点，分析师们普遍称赞这家由黄仁勋领导的科技巨头正在全线开足马力。华尔街对英伟达仍是强烈看涨。MarketBeat显示，54位分析师给出的12个月平均目标价为295.10美元，最高目标价为500美元;对应当前正在交易的截至发稿股价223.47美元，平均目标价意味着约32.1%潜在上行，最高目标价意味着约123.7%的惊人潜在上行空间。295.10美元平均目标价对应约7.17万亿美元市值;500美元最高目标价对应约12.14万亿美元市值。这些关于潜在市值与涨幅空间数字的含义可谓非常夸张：华尔街最高目标价隐含英伟达可能成为一个超过12万亿美元级别的公司，大约相当于把当前市值再翻一倍多。此前华尔街分析师们平均予以的1万亿美元到5万亿美元的平均市值关口，英伟达均已越过，因此投资者们相信7万亿美元将是下一个重要市值关口。花旗资深分析师Atif Malik在给客户们的一份报告中写道：“英伟达正在通过提供两个子类别来提高其数据中心销售额的可见度：Hyperscale和ACIE(AI云、工业与企业)，我们认为这有利于进行比较。英伟达CEO 黄仁勋预计今年Vera CPU销售额将达到200亿美元(我们认为主要包括Meta和微软)，并预计到2030年将形成一个新的2000亿美元CPU总潜在市场。此前2025年至2027年超过1万亿美元的数据中心销售额并未包括Vera CPU和LPX贡献，这使我们将FY27/28/29每股收益预期分别上调8%/6%/8%。此外，英伟达管理层似乎一致认为，凭借更优的性能/token指标，它将在AI大模型公司OpenAI和Anthropic，甚至SpaceXAI中扩大份额。”花旗的Malik继续给予英伟达“买入”评级，目标价则设定为300美元。摩根士丹利的资深分析师Joseph Moore将此次业绩类比为最顶级高尔夫球手，并称其结果是“直上球道”。Moore在给客户的一份报告中写道：“英伟达公布的数据高于我们的预期和预览，所有指标均实现干净利落的超预期和上调业绩展望指引，未来Vera Rubin的大幅爬坡应能证明他们的主张，即英伟达系的AI超级硬件体系在AI工厂经济学方面处于领先地位。”Moore将英伟达目标价从285美元小幅上调至288美元。他表示，尽管这家市值一度高达5.5万亿美元的科技巨头的“球门柱总是在移动”，但该公司一直证明自己优于竞争对手。Moore补充称：“当然，这并不意味着比较毫无意义，因为4000亿美元运行率的AI资本投资不可能在几个季度内完全由Vera Rubin满足，因此Blackwell架构AI GPU系列算力集群与其他公司下一代产品之间的比较，仍然是考虑因素中的重要部分。但我们相信英伟达长期以来所揭示的一个真理：在被证明并非如此之前，更低成本的硅片尚未被证明能够带来更低的每token成本，而拥有同类AI基础设施供应商的最佳能力，对于希望获得最长且最有效寿命加之最完整生态系统的客户来说，是一个相当大的优势。”Evercore ISI分析师Mark Lipacis 指出，资本回报大幅增加(800亿美元回购、季度股息从每股0.01美元提高至每股0.25美元)表明其盈利倍数可能正在扩张。Lipacis解释称：“我们预计，随着公司提高资本回报计划——股息从每股0.01美元增加至0.25美元，并在现有390亿美元基础上宣布新的800亿美元回购计划，同时计划在2026日历年返还50%的自由现金流(在我们看来，2027日历年及以后比例会更高)——英伟达未来12个月市盈率将开始大幅扩张。”Lipacis将其目标价从352美元大幅上调至413美元。他还指出，英伟达的CPU业务似乎已经准备好腾飞。Lipacis补充称：“英伟达强调，其预计将在2026日历年出货200亿美元独立出货的Vera CPU(该产品已于上周开始出货)——值得注意的是，这不包括机架级系统出货中作为headnode附带级别的CPU。更广泛来看，有着‘AI教父’称号英伟达CEO黄仁勋强调存在一个2000亿美元CPU总潜在市场，这与我们高于市场一致共识区间的2030年1900亿至2750亿美元市场规模测算更为强劲且乐观。我们期待黄仁勋在Computex的主题演讲成为催化剂，披露更多关于公司CPU战略的细节。”Seeking Alpha分析师Julia Ostian 表示，运营指标“看起来令人印象深刻”，Blackwell爬坡并未像一些人担心的那样拖累盈利能力。Ostian通过电子邮件表示：“英伟达仍然是一家全球最为卓越的科技公司，第二季度910亿美元的史无前例营收预期(如果实现，将意味着环比超预期11%)就是证明。”万亿美元AI宏图即将成为现实!地球最重要股票仍在定义AI超级牛市华尔街对英伟达的主流目标价已经把它定价为7万亿美元级公司;最激进聚合目标价则把它推向12万亿美元级别;而具名高目标价的核心逻辑，都是英伟达从GPU龙头升级为“AI工厂全栈基础设施平台”——GPU、CPU、网络、机架级系统、软件生态和资本回报共同支撑估值扩张，预期AI加速计算基础设施支出到2030年可能达到3万亿—4万亿美元。AI智能体风靡全球之际，AI算力投资主线正在从“围绕AI GPU的单点算力竞赛”转向“AI智能体驱动的全栈算力系统”，下一轮超额阿尔法收益也将不再仅仅属于AI GPU/AI ASIC领域最强龙头名单，而会系统性扩散到数据中心CPU、DRAM/NAND/HBM存储、AI PCB、液冷系统、数据中心光互连系统、ABF载板/玻璃基板与广泛晶圆代工等全栈AI算力基础设施层。在4月30日，微软、谷歌以及亚马逊这三家云计算超级巨头同一夜交出亮眼成绩单，凸显出受益于AI大浪潮的云计算业务的超预期爆发速度让华尔街重新定价AI的商业回报。摩根士丹利分析师团队发布的最新研报显示，预计五大超大规模科技巨头们(亚马逊、谷歌、Meta、微软、甲骨文)2026年合计资本开支约8000亿美元，2027年则有望突破1.1万亿美元，较此前预测的9500亿美元再度上调。摩根士丹利的分析师们强调，这些庞大资金投入背后的核心逻辑在于：先重投入、建产能，再靠基于AI算力资源的规模化商业营收和ROIC回收;云计算积压订单与AI应用Token的暴增，正是这套逻辑能跑通的最直接证据，这些巨头们云计算业务的超预期爆发速度让华尔街重新定价AI的商业回报。英伟达CEO黄仁勋今年早些时候在GTC大会上展现出英伟达在AI算力基础设施领域的“前所未有AI算力创收超级宏图”，他告知全球投资者们，在Blackwell架构GPU算力强劲需求以及即将量产的Vera Rubin架构AI算力体系更加炸裂式强劲需求推动之下，其在人工智能芯片领域的未来营收规模到2027年可能至少达到1万亿美元(即 2025-2027年AI 基础设施整体营收)，远远高于上一次GTC大会抛出的到2026年实现5000亿美元AI算力基础设施蓝图。英伟达已经不只是半导体龙头公司，而是全球AI资本开支周期以及引领全球AI牛市轨迹的价格锚、情绪锚和盈利锚：它的业绩决定了市场如何看待AI需求强度，它的供应链牵动台积电、SK海力士、美光、ASML(阿斯麦)等上游半导体设备与晶圆厂基本面增长前景，以及数据中心CPU、HBM/NAND/HDD存储、2.5D/3D先进封装、液冷散热系统、光互连供应链、数据中心电力等一整个AI算力基础设施链条，它的涨跌幅则显著影响到纳斯达克、标普500指数牛市轨迹和全球股票市场风险偏好。此外，值得注意的是，虽然英伟达基本面继续超预期，但仓位已经极度拥挤，这也意味着英伟达涨势未必以过去那种垂直拉升方式延续，但中长期趋势并未被破坏。高盛交易台称英伟达仓位拥挤度在1到10分中达到9，且虽然空头名义规模约625亿美元，但多头持有已经非常普遍;同时机构大量备兑看涨期权使交易商处于long gamma状态，压制短线波动。因此，短期股价钝化更像是“高预期、高仓位、高Gamma”下的交易结构问题，而不是AI需求转弱。只要AI模型公司和Hyperscalers继续投入AI工厂，Blackwell/Rubin/Vera CPU持续放量，且每token成本优势仍由英伟达系统级架构定义，英伟达的盈利天花板仍在上移。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[{"id":566657594697432,"gmtCreate":1779378527683,"gmtModify":1779378529733,"author":{"id":"4210522535662642","authorId":"4210522535662642","name":"maxitong","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"wearingBadges":[{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-2","name":"宗师交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到100次","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","isScarce":0,"effectEnabled":0,"redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":0,"redirectLinkValidityTo":9223372036854776000}],"authorIdStr":"4210522535662642","idStr":"4210522535662642"},"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/566657594697432","repostId":2637337801,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2637337801","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1779376822,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2637337801?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-21 23:20","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"“AI信仰”再掀狂澜！英伟达仍在定义AI牛市，华尔街憧憬市值破冲7万亿美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2637337801","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，有着“地球最重要股票”以及“AI芯片霸主”称号的全球最高市值公司英伟达，在美东时间周三美股盘后公布又一份无比强劲的季度业绩以及未来业绩展望。在华尔街，分析师们对于“全球AI总龙头”英伟达的看涨情绪愈发火热，仅仅华尔街平均目标价就意味着英伟达市值有望超7万亿美元。截至发稿，英伟达股价盘初一度上扬至227美元，市值徘徊在5.35万亿美元附近。Moore将英伟达目标价从285美元小幅上调至288美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">5月21日，有着“地球最重要股票”以及“AI芯片霸主”称号的全球最高市值公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>，在美东时间周三美股盘后公布又一份无比强劲的季度业绩以及未来业绩展望。<strong>英伟达最新业绩可谓非常清楚地凸显全球AI算力基础设施建设狂潮远未停歇，并且正在从AI GPU/AI ASIC扩展到数据中心CPU、高性能网络基础设施、整机级别服务器集群、AI超级工厂和企业级大规模AI云计算系统。在华尔街，分析师们对于“全球AI总龙头”英伟达的看涨情绪愈发火热，仅仅华尔街平均目标价就意味着英伟达市值有望超7万亿美元。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">截至发稿，英伟达股价盘初一度上扬至227美元，市值徘徊在5.35万亿美元附近。截至2026年4月26日的英伟达2027财年第一财季(“即一季度”)业绩显示，营收同比增长85%至816.2亿美元，较分析师普遍预期高将近3.1%。核心业务——数据中心业务营收约752亿美元，贡献公司九成以上营收，和总营收均继续刷新单季最高纪录，显示AI算力需求仍是英伟达增长的绝对主线。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达此次给出的第二财季(“即二季度”)营收指引中值约910亿美元，再创单季历史纪录，显著高于分析师预期均值，但是低于华尔街最乐观预期——即960亿至980亿美元。<strong>不过，英伟达管理层特别说明，此项业绩指引未计入来自中国的任何数据中心计算业务营收，这意味着当前指引主要依靠中国以外市场需求支撑，也为未来潜在增量留下空间。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>值得注意的是，美国商务部已正式批准向包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、字节跳动在内的10家中国巨头们出口英伟达H200 AI芯片，每位买家最高购买额度可达7.5万颗。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这些业绩与展望都在说明北美超大规模云厂商、AI大模型公司、企业AI云和工业物理AI需求并没有明显减速，所谓“AI Capex见顶”的担忧至少在英伟达订单与指引层面尚未得到验证。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">更重要的是，<strong>这次英伟达给华尔街的不是单一AI GPU或者显卡增长故事，而是AI工厂经济学的狂飙式扩展版图</strong>。花旗提到，英伟达将数据中心销售拆分为Hyperscale和ACIE，有助于提高可见度;<strong>这家芯片巨头还预计今年Vera CPU销售额达到200亿美元，并提出到2030年2000亿美元CPU TAM。这意味着英伟达正在从“AI GPU龙头”升级为“GPU+CPU+网络基础设施+机架级系统+CUDA开发者软件生态”的AI基础设施平台公司，甚至暴力切入过去由<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>这两大x86芯片巨头长期主导的数据中心服务器CPU价值池</strong>。</p><h2 id=\"id_703067357\">AI浪潮没有刹车键!英伟达再度征服华尔街</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于一家体量如此庞大的公司而言，英伟达最新业绩和指引可谓令华尔街分析师们印象极其深刻，散户投资者们显然也注意到了这一点，分析师们普遍称赞这家由黄仁勋领导的科技巨头正在全线开足马力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街对英伟达仍是强烈看涨。MarketBeat显示，<strong>54位分析师给出的12个月平均目标价为295.10美元，最高目标价为500美元;对应当前正在交易的截至发稿股价223.47美元，平均目标价意味着约32.1%潜在上行，最高目标价意味着约123.7%的惊人潜在上行空间。295.10美元平均目标价对应约7.17万亿美元市值;500美元最高目标价对应约12.14万亿美元市值。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这些关于潜在市值与涨幅空间数字的含义可谓非常夸张：<strong>华尔街最高目标价隐含英伟达可能成为一个超过12万亿美元级别的公司，大约相当于把当前市值再翻一倍多。此前华尔街分析师们平均予以的1万亿美元到5万亿美元的平均市值关口，英伟达均已越过，因此投资者们相信7万亿美元将是下一个重要市值关口。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e12b049d69ece78fe763bfd70627ce7e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"200\" tg-height=\"120\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">花旗资深分析师Atif Malik在给客户们的一份报告中写道：“英伟达正在通过提供两个子类别来提高其数据中心销售额的可见度：Hyperscale和ACIE(AI云、工业与企业)，我们认为这有利于进行比较。英伟达CEO 黄仁勋预计今年Vera CPU销售额将达到200亿美元(我们认为主要包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>和微软)，<strong>并预计到2030年将形成一个新的2000亿美元CPU总潜在市场。此前2025年至2027年超过1万亿美元的数据中心销售额并未包括Vera CPU和LPX贡献，这使我们将FY27/28/29每股收益预期分别上调8%/6%/8%。此外，英伟达管理层似乎一致认为，凭借更优的性能/token指标，它将在AI大模型公司OpenAI和Anthropic，甚至SpaceXAI中扩大份额。</strong>”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>花旗的Malik继续给予英伟达“买入”评级，目标价则设定为300美元</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>的资深分析师Joseph Moore将此次业绩类比为最顶级高尔夫球手，并称其结果是“直上球道”。Moore在给客户的一份报告中写道：“英伟达公布的数据高于我们的预期和预览，所有指标均实现干净利落的超预期和上调业绩展望指引，未来Vera Rubin的大幅爬坡应能证明他们的主张，即英伟达系的AI超级硬件体系在AI工厂经济学方面处于领先地位。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Moore将英伟达目标价从285美元小幅上调至288美元。他表示，尽管这家市值一度高达5.5万亿美元的科技巨头的“球门柱总是在移动”，但该公司一直证明自己优于竞争对手。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Moore补充称：“当然，这并不意味着比较毫无意义，因为4000亿美元运行率的AI资本投资不可能在几个季度内完全由Vera Rubin满足，因此Blackwell架构AI GPU系列算力集群与其他公司下一代产品之间的比较，仍然是考虑因素中的重要部分。但我们相信英伟达长期以来所揭示的一个真理：在被证明并非如此之前，更低成本的硅片尚未被证明能够带来更低的每token成本，而拥有同类AI基础设施供应商的最佳能力，对于希望获得最长且最有效寿命加之最完整生态系统的客户来说，是一个相当大的优势。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EVR\">Evercore</a> ISI分析师Mark Lipacis 指出，资本回报大幅增加(800亿美元回购、季度股息从每股0.01美元提高至每股0.25美元)表明其盈利倍数可能正在扩张。Lipacis解释称：<strong>“我们预计，随着公司提高资本回报计划——股息从每股0.01美元增加至0.25美元，并在现有390亿美元基础上宣布新的800亿美元回购计划，同时计划在2026日历年返还50%的自由现金流(在我们看来，2027日历年及以后比例会更高)——英伟达未来12个月市盈率将开始大幅扩张。”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Lipacis将其目标价从352美元大幅上调至413美元。他还指出，英伟达的CPU业务似乎已经准备好腾飞。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Lipacis补充称：“英伟达强调，其预计将在2026日历年出货200亿美元独立出货的Vera CPU(该产品已于上周开始出货)——值得注意的是，这不包括机架级系统出货中作为headnode附带级别的CPU。更广泛来看，有着‘AI教父’称号英伟达CEO黄仁勋强调存在一个2000亿美元CPU总潜在市场，这与我们高于市场一致共识区间的2030年1900亿至2750亿美元市场规模测算更为强劲且乐观。我们期待黄仁勋在Computex的主题演讲成为催化剂，披露更多关于公司CPU战略的细节。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Seeking Alpha分析师Julia Ostian 表示，运营指标“看起来令人印象深刻”，Blackwell爬坡并未像一些人担心的那样拖累盈利能力。Ostian通过电子邮件表示：“英伟达仍然是一家全球最为卓越的科技公司，第二季度910亿美元的史无前例营收预期(如果实现，将意味着环比超预期11%)就是证明。”</p><h2 id=\"id_1348843923\">万亿美元AI<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600122\">宏图</a>即将成为现实!地球最重要股票仍在定义AI超级牛市</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街对英伟达的主流目标价已经把它定价为7万亿美元级公司;<strong>最激进聚合目标价则把它推向12万亿美元级别;而具名高目标价的核心逻辑，都是英伟达从GPU龙头升级为“AI工厂全栈基础设施平台”——GPU、CPU、网络、机架级系统、软件生态和资本回报共同支撑估值扩张，预期AI加速计算基础设施支出到2030年可能达到3万亿—4万亿美元。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">AI智能体风靡全球之际，AI算力投资主线正在从“围绕AI GPU的单点算力竞赛”转向“AI智能体驱动的全栈算力系统”，下<strong>一轮超额阿尔法收益也将不再仅仅属于AI GPU/AI ASIC领域最强龙头名单，而会系统性扩散到数据中心CPU、DRAM/NAND/HBM存储、AI PCB、液冷系统、数据中心光互连系统、ABF载板/玻璃基板与广泛晶圆代工等全栈AI算力基础设施层。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在4月30日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>这三家云计算超级巨头同一夜交出亮眼成绩单，凸显出受益于AI大浪潮的云计算业务的超预期爆发速度让华尔街重新定价AI的商业回报。摩根士丹利分析师团队发布的最新研报显示，<strong>预计五大超大规模科技巨头们(亚马逊、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>、Meta、微软、甲骨文)2026年合计资本开支约8000亿美元，2027年则有望突破1.1万亿美元，较此前预测的9500亿美元再度上调</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根士丹利的分析师们强调，<strong>这些庞大资金投入背后的核心逻辑在于：先重投入、建产能，再靠基于AI算力资源的规模化商业营收和ROIC回收;云计算积压订单与AI应用Token的暴增，正是这套逻辑能跑通的最直接证据，这些巨头们云计算业务的超预期爆发速度让华尔街重新定价AI的商业回报。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达CEO黄仁勋今年早些时候在GTC大会上展现出英伟达在AI算力基础设施领域的“前所未有AI算力创收超级宏图”，他告知全球投资者们，在Blackwell架构GPU算力强劲需求以及即将量产的Vera Rubin架构AI算力体系更加炸裂式强劲需求推动之下，<strong>其在人工智能芯片领域的未来营收规模到2027年可能至少达到1万亿美元(即 2025-2027年AI 基础设施整体营收)，远远高于上一次GTC大会抛出的到2026年实现5000亿美元AI算力基础设施蓝图。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>英伟达已经不只是半导体龙头公司，而是全球AI资本开支周期以及引领全球AI牛市轨迹的价格锚、情绪锚和盈利锚：</strong>它的业绩决定了市场如何看待AI需求强度，它的供应链牵动<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>、SK海力士、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML</a>(阿斯麦)等上游半导体设备与晶圆厂基本面增长前景，以及数据中心CPU、HBM/NAND/HDD存储、2.5D/3D先进封装、液冷散热系统、光互连供应链、数据中心电力等一整个AI算力基础设施链条，它的涨跌幅则显著影响到纳斯达克、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数牛市轨迹和全球股票市场风险偏好。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，值得注意的是，虽然英伟达基本面继续超预期，但仓位已经极度拥挤，这也意味着英伟达涨势未必以过去那种垂直拉升方式延续，但中长期趋势并未被破坏。<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>交易台称英伟达仓位拥挤度在1到10分中达到9，且虽然空头名义规模约625亿美元，但多头持有已经非常普遍;同时机构大量备兑看涨期权使交易商处于long gamma状态，压制短线波动。因此，短期股价钝化更像是“高预期、高仓位、高Gamma”下的交易结构问题，而不是AI需求转弱。</strong>只要AI模型公司和Hyperscalers继续投入AI工厂，Blackwell/Rubin/Vera CPU持续放量，且每token成本优势仍由英伟达系统级架构定义，英伟达的盈利天花板仍在上移。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“AI信仰”再掀狂澜！英伟达仍在定义AI牛市，华尔街憧憬市值破冲7万亿美元</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“AI信仰”再掀狂澜！英伟达仍在定义AI牛市，华尔街憧憬市值破冲7万亿美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-21 23:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1444770.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>5月21日，有着“地球最重要股票”以及“AI芯片霸主”称号的全球最高市值公司英伟达，在美东时间周三美股盘后公布又一份无比强劲的季度业绩以及未来业绩展望。英伟达最新业绩可谓非常清楚地凸显全球AI算力基础设施建设狂潮远未停歇，并且正在从AI GPU/AI ASIC扩展到数据中心CPU、高性能网络基础设施、整机级别服务器集群、AI超级工厂和企业级大规模AI云计算系统。在华尔街，分析师们对于“全球AI总...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1444770.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55eb327f580527889cf30bafa92692ae","relate_stocks":{"LU1642822529.SGD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU2602419157.SGD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"AC\" (SGD) ACC","LU0719512351.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Technology A (acc) SGD","LU1496350171.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED BALANCED \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","LU2505996681.GBP":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU2065171311.SGD":"M&G (LUX) GLOBAL MAXIMA \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU2505996509.AUD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU2420271590.USD":"ALLIANZ SELECT INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (USD) ACC","TSLA":"特斯拉","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","LU2552382215.SGD":"WELLINGTON US BRAND POWER \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL 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ACC"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1444770.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2637337801","content_text":"5月21日，有着“地球最重要股票”以及“AI芯片霸主”称号的全球最高市值公司英伟达，在美东时间周三美股盘后公布又一份无比强劲的季度业绩以及未来业绩展望。英伟达最新业绩可谓非常清楚地凸显全球AI算力基础设施建设狂潮远未停歇，并且正在从AI GPU/AI ASIC扩展到数据中心CPU、高性能网络基础设施、整机级别服务器集群、AI超级工厂和企业级大规模AI云计算系统。在华尔街，分析师们对于“全球AI总龙头”英伟达的看涨情绪愈发火热，仅仅华尔街平均目标价就意味着英伟达市值有望超7万亿美元。截至发稿，英伟达股价盘初一度上扬至227美元，市值徘徊在5.35万亿美元附近。截至2026年4月26日的英伟达2027财年第一财季(“即一季度”)业绩显示，营收同比增长85%至816.2亿美元，较分析师普遍预期高将近3.1%。核心业务——数据中心业务营收约752亿美元，贡献公司九成以上营收，和总营收均继续刷新单季最高纪录，显示AI算力需求仍是英伟达增长的绝对主线。英伟达此次给出的第二财季(“即二季度”)营收指引中值约910亿美元，再创单季历史纪录，显著高于分析师预期均值，但是低于华尔街最乐观预期——即960亿至980亿美元。不过，英伟达管理层特别说明，此项业绩指引未计入来自中国的任何数据中心计算业务营收，这意味着当前指引主要依靠中国以外市场需求支撑，也为未来潜在增量留下空间。值得注意的是，美国商务部已正式批准向包括阿里巴巴、腾讯、字节跳动在内的10家中国巨头们出口英伟达H200 AI芯片，每位买家最高购买额度可达7.5万颗。这些业绩与展望都在说明北美超大规模云厂商、AI大模型公司、企业AI云和工业物理AI需求并没有明显减速，所谓“AI Capex见顶”的担忧至少在英伟达订单与指引层面尚未得到验证。更重要的是，这次英伟达给华尔街的不是单一AI GPU或者显卡增长故事，而是AI工厂经济学的狂飙式扩展版图。花旗提到，英伟达将数据中心销售拆分为Hyperscale和ACIE，有助于提高可见度;这家芯片巨头还预计今年Vera CPU销售额达到200亿美元，并提出到2030年2000亿美元CPU TAM。这意味着英伟达正在从“AI GPU龙头”升级为“GPU+CPU+网络基础设施+机架级系统+CUDA开发者软件生态”的AI基础设施平台公司，甚至暴力切入过去由英特尔与AMD这两大x86芯片巨头长期主导的数据中心服务器CPU价值池。AI浪潮没有刹车键!英伟达再度征服华尔街对于一家体量如此庞大的公司而言，英伟达最新业绩和指引可谓令华尔街分析师们印象极其深刻，散户投资者们显然也注意到了这一点，分析师们普遍称赞这家由黄仁勋领导的科技巨头正在全线开足马力。华尔街对英伟达仍是强烈看涨。MarketBeat显示，54位分析师给出的12个月平均目标价为295.10美元，最高目标价为500美元;对应当前正在交易的截至发稿股价223.47美元，平均目标价意味着约32.1%潜在上行，最高目标价意味着约123.7%的惊人潜在上行空间。295.10美元平均目标价对应约7.17万亿美元市值;500美元最高目标价对应约12.14万亿美元市值。这些关于潜在市值与涨幅空间数字的含义可谓非常夸张：华尔街最高目标价隐含英伟达可能成为一个超过12万亿美元级别的公司，大约相当于把当前市值再翻一倍多。此前华尔街分析师们平均予以的1万亿美元到5万亿美元的平均市值关口，英伟达均已越过，因此投资者们相信7万亿美元将是下一个重要市值关口。花旗资深分析师Atif Malik在给客户们的一份报告中写道：“英伟达正在通过提供两个子类别来提高其数据中心销售额的可见度：Hyperscale和ACIE(AI云、工业与企业)，我们认为这有利于进行比较。英伟达CEO 黄仁勋预计今年Vera CPU销售额将达到200亿美元(我们认为主要包括Meta和微软)，并预计到2030年将形成一个新的2000亿美元CPU总潜在市场。此前2025年至2027年超过1万亿美元的数据中心销售额并未包括Vera CPU和LPX贡献，这使我们将FY27/28/29每股收益预期分别上调8%/6%/8%。此外，英伟达管理层似乎一致认为，凭借更优的性能/token指标，它将在AI大模型公司OpenAI和Anthropic，甚至SpaceXAI中扩大份额。”花旗的Malik继续给予英伟达“买入”评级，目标价则设定为300美元。摩根士丹利的资深分析师Joseph Moore将此次业绩类比为最顶级高尔夫球手，并称其结果是“直上球道”。Moore在给客户的一份报告中写道：“英伟达公布的数据高于我们的预期和预览，所有指标均实现干净利落的超预期和上调业绩展望指引，未来Vera Rubin的大幅爬坡应能证明他们的主张，即英伟达系的AI超级硬件体系在AI工厂经济学方面处于领先地位。”Moore将英伟达目标价从285美元小幅上调至288美元。他表示，尽管这家市值一度高达5.5万亿美元的科技巨头的“球门柱总是在移动”，但该公司一直证明自己优于竞争对手。Moore补充称：“当然，这并不意味着比较毫无意义，因为4000亿美元运行率的AI资本投资不可能在几个季度内完全由Vera Rubin满足，因此Blackwell架构AI GPU系列算力集群与其他公司下一代产品之间的比较，仍然是考虑因素中的重要部分。但我们相信英伟达长期以来所揭示的一个真理：在被证明并非如此之前，更低成本的硅片尚未被证明能够带来更低的每token成本，而拥有同类AI基础设施供应商的最佳能力，对于希望获得最长且最有效寿命加之最完整生态系统的客户来说，是一个相当大的优势。”Evercore ISI分析师Mark Lipacis 指出，资本回报大幅增加(800亿美元回购、季度股息从每股0.01美元提高至每股0.25美元)表明其盈利倍数可能正在扩张。Lipacis解释称：“我们预计，随着公司提高资本回报计划——股息从每股0.01美元增加至0.25美元，并在现有390亿美元基础上宣布新的800亿美元回购计划，同时计划在2026日历年返还50%的自由现金流(在我们看来，2027日历年及以后比例会更高)——英伟达未来12个月市盈率将开始大幅扩张。”Lipacis将其目标价从352美元大幅上调至413美元。他还指出，英伟达的CPU业务似乎已经准备好腾飞。Lipacis补充称：“英伟达强调，其预计将在2026日历年出货200亿美元独立出货的Vera CPU(该产品已于上周开始出货)——值得注意的是，这不包括机架级系统出货中作为headnode附带级别的CPU。更广泛来看，有着‘AI教父’称号英伟达CEO黄仁勋强调存在一个2000亿美元CPU总潜在市场，这与我们高于市场一致共识区间的2030年1900亿至2750亿美元市场规模测算更为强劲且乐观。我们期待黄仁勋在Computex的主题演讲成为催化剂，披露更多关于公司CPU战略的细节。”Seeking Alpha分析师Julia Ostian 表示，运营指标“看起来令人印象深刻”，Blackwell爬坡并未像一些人担心的那样拖累盈利能力。Ostian通过电子邮件表示：“英伟达仍然是一家全球最为卓越的科技公司，第二季度910亿美元的史无前例营收预期(如果实现，将意味着环比超预期11%)就是证明。”万亿美元AI宏图即将成为现实!地球最重要股票仍在定义AI超级牛市华尔街对英伟达的主流目标价已经把它定价为7万亿美元级公司;最激进聚合目标价则把它推向12万亿美元级别;而具名高目标价的核心逻辑，都是英伟达从GPU龙头升级为“AI工厂全栈基础设施平台”——GPU、CPU、网络、机架级系统、软件生态和资本回报共同支撑估值扩张，预期AI加速计算基础设施支出到2030年可能达到3万亿—4万亿美元。AI智能体风靡全球之际，AI算力投资主线正在从“围绕AI GPU的单点算力竞赛”转向“AI智能体驱动的全栈算力系统”，下一轮超额阿尔法收益也将不再仅仅属于AI GPU/AI ASIC领域最强龙头名单，而会系统性扩散到数据中心CPU、DRAM/NAND/HBM存储、AI PCB、液冷系统、数据中心光互连系统、ABF载板/玻璃基板与广泛晶圆代工等全栈AI算力基础设施层。在4月30日，微软、谷歌以及亚马逊这三家云计算超级巨头同一夜交出亮眼成绩单，凸显出受益于AI大浪潮的云计算业务的超预期爆发速度让华尔街重新定价AI的商业回报。摩根士丹利分析师团队发布的最新研报显示，预计五大超大规模科技巨头们(亚马逊、谷歌、Meta、微软、甲骨文)2026年合计资本开支约8000亿美元，2027年则有望突破1.1万亿美元，较此前预测的9500亿美元再度上调。摩根士丹利的分析师们强调，这些庞大资金投入背后的核心逻辑在于：先重投入、建产能，再靠基于AI算力资源的规模化商业营收和ROIC回收;云计算积压订单与AI应用Token的暴增，正是这套逻辑能跑通的最直接证据，这些巨头们云计算业务的超预期爆发速度让华尔街重新定价AI的商业回报。英伟达CEO黄仁勋今年早些时候在GTC大会上展现出英伟达在AI算力基础设施领域的“前所未有AI算力创收超级宏图”，他告知全球投资者们，在Blackwell架构GPU算力强劲需求以及即将量产的Vera Rubin架构AI算力体系更加炸裂式强劲需求推动之下，其在人工智能芯片领域的未来营收规模到2027年可能至少达到1万亿美元(即 2025-2027年AI 基础设施整体营收)，远远高于上一次GTC大会抛出的到2026年实现5000亿美元AI算力基础设施蓝图。英伟达已经不只是半导体龙头公司，而是全球AI资本开支周期以及引领全球AI牛市轨迹的价格锚、情绪锚和盈利锚：它的业绩决定了市场如何看待AI需求强度，它的供应链牵动台积电、SK海力士、美光、ASML(阿斯麦)等上游半导体设备与晶圆厂基本面增长前景，以及数据中心CPU、HBM/NAND/HDD存储、2.5D/3D先进封装、液冷散热系统、光互连供应链、数据中心电力等一整个AI算力基础设施链条，它的涨跌幅则显著影响到纳斯达克、标普500指数牛市轨迹和全球股票市场风险偏好。此外，值得注意的是，虽然英伟达基本面继续超预期，但仓位已经极度拥挤，这也意味着英伟达涨势未必以过去那种垂直拉升方式延续，但中长期趋势并未被破坏。高盛交易台称英伟达仓位拥挤度在1到10分中达到9，且虽然空头名义规模约625亿美元，但多头持有已经非常普遍;同时机构大量备兑看涨期权使交易商处于long gamma状态，压制短线波动。因此，短期股价钝化更像是“高预期、高仓位、高Gamma”下的交易结构问题，而不是AI需求转弱。只要AI模型公司和Hyperscalers继续投入AI工厂，Blackwell/Rubin/Vera CPU持续放量，且每token成本优势仍由英伟达系统级架构定义，英伟达的盈利天花板仍在上移。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDL":0.6,"NVDA":1.99,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"07788":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"TSLA":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"07388":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"MSFT":0.6,"META":0.6,"AAPL":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"GOOG":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"AMZN":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"ANV":0.6}},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":3,"favoriteSize":4,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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