科技股普跌拖累大盘，摩根大通：AI产业链并未严重高估

每日经济新闻20:17

每经记者｜王海慜每经编辑｜彭水萍 5月21日，A股市场上演“过山车”行情，早盘各大指数集体高开冲高，午后却风云突变，AI产业链领衔重挫引发市场全面调整。截至收盘，上证指数跌2.04%，报4077.28 点，跌破4100点整数关口，创下今年3月24日以来的最大单日跌幅；深证成指跌2.07%，报15247.27点；创业板指跌 2.35%，科创100指数跌幅更是高达...

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2.35%，科创100指数跌幅更是高达5.23%，成为今日跌幅最大的主要指数。 对于AI产业链究竟是否已经高估的话题，有头部外资券商策略分析师向记者表示，AI产业链的业绩增长消化了估值，目前并不算高估。此外，中国股票市场外资回流趋势明显，偏好也从消费转向科技、先进制造。市场调整后仍存结构性机会。今日早盘，市场在券商、人形机器人等板块带动下一度走强，午后则迅速转为跌势，AI产业链成为重灾区，而部分防御性板块和新兴赛道逆势走强。今日跌幅居前的概念板块有分析认为，前期AI板块涨幅较大，估值处于高位，资金借今日市场波动有一定获利了结的意愿。此外，今日AI产业链的大跌也不乏一些产业层面的“催化剂”。首先，昨日英伟达公布超预期财报后，市场出现“利好出尽”的担忧。 其次，今日港股市场AI相关概念也出现明显调整。回顾今日盘面，港股大模型、互联网平台板块出现高开低走的走势。日前，百度发布了2026年一季报，公司实现净利润34亿元，同比下降55%，AI新业务收入占比首次过半，但利润被高投入拖累。这也波及到了市场对其他AI平台公司的预期。有券商资深科技行业分析师认为，今年，AI行业有一个变量不容忽视，“OpenAI、Anthropic、SpaceX等三家头部AI公司有可能都在今年登陆美股，这将会对市场带来怎样的影响，值得投资者重点关注”。值得一提的是，对于今日的下跌，市场上出现了一些传闻，某券商策略首席指出，投资不要迷信传闻，AI产业趋势不会因为传闻结束，部分个股近阶段涨幅过大，短线有调整也很正常。 尽管前期AI产业链已经累积了较大的涨幅，市场分歧加大，但一些头部机构却依然看好行业后续的发展。谈及目前市场对AI产业链涨幅可能过大的担忧，昨日，摩根大通中国股票策略师张晓宁在一场公开活动中向记者表示，“目前AI产业链的整体估值，无论是市盈率，或者是市销率，并没有很过分，去年四季度是超过三个标准差，现在从三个标准差的高点回到了两个标准差左右。因为相关产业公司的业绩在不断地往前滚，它在一定程度上把估值消化掉了”。此外，张晓宁还向记者指出，外资回流中国市场的趋势已经较为明显，“在过去两年中，海外投资人尤其是区域型基金有大幅缩减对中国的低配。比如，亚洲（除日本以外）这个类型的主动基金把对中国的低配从2024年2月底的-8.3%缩减到了我们最新追踪到的-1%；新兴市场类型的主动基金，把对中国的低配从2024年1月底大概-4.5%的低配水平，缩减到了现在的-2%”。“而全球型基金在今年1、2月对中国的低配水平也明显出现了向上回升的态势，从大概-2%左右，缩减到了-1.7%。听起来，好像这个幅度没有区域型基金那么大，但我们要意识到全球性基金的盘子是更大的，它们的在管规模是区域型基金的5倍，它们稍微动一点，带来的资金增量也是非常可观的”。张晓宁表示。张晓宁指出，“据统计，截至5月15日，今年来中国股票已经录得了131亿美元的净流入，数据口径是EPFR，它跟踪的是海外上市的公募资金的资金流情况。我们可以看到，今年年初至今，这个口径的资金流已经显著高于了过去三四年的同期水平，这也支持外资增配中国资产的明显趋势”。值得关注的是，据张晓宁观察，外资对中国资产的具体选择也开始从以往青睐的消费转向科技领域，“从我们的路演反馈发现，受整个AI产业浪潮，以及对能源安全的关注，对机器人板块长期发展的预期等因素影响，我们会看到海外投资人也慢慢从以前更加聚焦传统互联网巨头，转向关注先进制造领域”。尽管今日调整幅度较大，但市场并非全面走弱，结构性机会依然存在。以券商为代表的大金融板今日一度有不错的表现，汽车产业链、人形机器人等新兴赛道也逆势走强。人形机器人主题最近受到了市场的广泛关注，张晓宁告诉记者，“在市场较为充裕的流动性支持下，业绩整体稳定向好的大背景下，我们聚焦高质量的成长，相关标的里面有三个核心方向：人工智能生态、机器人、能源安全”。封面图片来源：每经媒资库\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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