金价持续回调

滚动播报05-19

热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端　　文章来源：中国经营报　　中经记者秦玉芳广州报道　　5月中旬以来，国际现货黄金价格持续下跌。截至5月18日开盘，伦敦现货黄金价格跌破4542美元/盎司，盘中一度跌至4480美元/盎司。　　5月18日，摩根大通将2026年平均黄金价格预测由此前的5708美元/盎司下调至5243美元/盎司。　　对于近期金价持续回调...

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广州报道\n　　5月中旬以来，国际现货黄金价格持续下跌。截至5月18日开盘，伦敦现货黄金价格跌破4542美元/盎司，盘中一度跌至4480美元/盎司。\n　　5月18日，摩根大通将2026年平均黄金价格预测由此前的5708美元/盎司下调至5243美元/盎司。\n　　对于近期金价持续回调的原因，上海息壤实业首席分析师蒋舒分析认为，美伊冲突爆发后不久金价就与油价呈现反向关系，这种反向关系的形成背后有着油价影响通胀、通胀影响美元货币政策的逻辑链条。本轮金价下跌的驱动因素主要来自高油价下的通胀预期引发的美联储货币政策收紧预期。\n　　蒋舒进一步指出，由于目前油价尚没有快速跌落到60美元/桶的迹象，因此高油价提升通胀而通胀影响美联储政策的传导过程仍在展开，今年二、三季度很可能震荡回调是金价主基调。“这意味着美伊冲突影响了金价在一季度高速上扬后回调的时间，金价要摆脱美伊冲突的影响、迎来较为持久的上扬态势或许要等到四季度。”\n　　苏商银行特约研究员高政扬也表示，黄金价格下跌主要源于油价中枢上行推升通胀水平。美国4月CPI与PPI大幅反弹，通胀压力升温，导致美联储年内降息预期降温。在此背景下，美债收益率上行与美元指数走强，对金价形成明显压制。\n　　高政扬进一步分析，当前市场正处于美联储政策节奏与通胀韧性之间的博弈阶段。短期内，受高利率预期压制，金价或维持震荡格局。若后续通胀黏性持续显现，新任美联储主席降息阻力上升，金价不排除进一步下探的可能。不过高政扬也强调，若霍尔木兹海峡能够恢复正常通航，油价中枢下移，通胀水平逐步回落，降息预期升温，金价有望企稳回升。\n　　对于后续宏观走向，博时基金王祥认为，仍明显依赖于地缘演进。在王祥看来，若霍尔木兹海峡受阻时间进一步拉长，油价风险溢价可能不再是阶段性冲高，而会逐步传导为更具持续性的通胀担忧，并强化“高油价—高通胀—高利率”的宏观交易链条。在这一情形下，美债长端利率上行不只是美联储政策利率预期变化的结果，也可能包含更高的通胀风险补偿和期限溢价，对黄金的压制将更加明显。反之，若后续中东局势能够实质性缓和，则油价有望回落，利率从当前位置回落具备合理性，黄金也有望获得反弹窗口。\n　　从短期走势来看，国投期货在最新研报中指出，美伊谈判悬而未决，双方虽然都寻求脱身但仍将以强硬姿态争取更大筹码，霍尔木兹海峡何时通航成为全球大宗商品走向的核心，市场情绪跟随战争信息摇摆，金价暂缺少明确的方向指引，继续以4000—5000美元/盎司区域震荡对待，国际金价峰值5600美元/盎司之后形成的回调浪形态尚未逆转，调整可能会有一定延续，耐心等待更好的盈亏比布局机会。\n　　尽管短期承压，不过市场普遍分析认为，黄金中长期走势仍值得期待。展望中长期，摩根大通方面表示，因2026年下半年需求重新加速，基本情景仍然预计到年底黄金价格将达到6000美元/盎司。高盛集团方面也认为，各国央行料将加大购金力度，助力金价在年底前回升。\n　　对于投资者而言，高政扬认为，重点是如何应对当前的金价震荡格局。高政扬表示，投资者应摒弃追高与重仓的激进策略，将黄金作为资产配置的一部分，可选择在相对低位分批建仓，合理配置仓位比例，同时紧密关注通胀演变趋势与美联储政策信号，建立动态调整机制。\n　　（编辑：杨井鑫 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