财报倒计时！美银断言英伟达业绩“超预期”！AI算力新一轮行情有望开启？

新浪基金05-20

美银证券分析师Vivek Arya团队发布英伟达Q1财报前瞻指出，鉴于该公司过去十个季度实际营收平均超出管理层指引7%至8%的历史规律，结合管理层此前给出的780亿美元营收指引，推算英伟达Q1实际营收大概率将落在830亿至840亿美元区间，大幅高于市场一致的787亿美元预期，这意味着财报“超预期”或成定局，英伟达财报将于美东时间5月20日收盘后公布。　　英伟达作为创业板人工智能先行指标，其财报...

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Bank of America asserts that Nvidia's performance \"exceeded expectations\"! Is a new round of AI computing power market expected to open?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a569c5b5a95fb156676515c6e5c13c01","symbols_score_info":{"159363":1.94,"ANV":0.6,"07788":0.6,"NVIW.SI":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"META":0.6,"2NVD.UK":0.6,"07388":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVD3.UK":0.6,"AMZN":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"NVDS.UK":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"3NVD.UK":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVD2.UK":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"SNVD.UK":0.6,"MSFT":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"GOOG":0.6,"AAPL":0.6,"NVDA":1.98,"TSLA":0.6,"NVDX":0.6},"content_text":"美银证券分析师Vivek Arya团队发布英伟达Q1财报前瞻指出，鉴于该公司过去十个季度实际营收平均超出管理层指引7%至8%的历史规律，结合管理层此前给出的780亿美元营收指引，推算英伟达Q1实际营收大概率将落在830亿至840亿美元区间，大幅高于市场一致的787亿美元预期，这意味着财报“超预期”或成定局，英伟达财报将于美东时间5月20日收盘后公布。\n　　英伟达作为创业板人工智能先行指标，其财报表现往往对A股AI板块形成直接催化，有望进一步提振市场对AI算力产业链的信心。在此背景下，聚焦光模块龙头等海外算力链的创业板人工智能ETF华宝（159363）值得重点关注，最新光模块含量超50%，一键布局“易中天”等龙头。\n　　热点追踪\n　　英伟达即将公布的第一财季财报备受市场瞩目，多家华尔街机构对这一“AI龙头”的表现持高度乐观态度。美银（Morgan Stanley）分析师Vivek Arya将英伟达目标价上调至320美元，并预测其2026年营收有望超过1900亿美元，创下商业公司历史最高纪录。根据市场共识，英伟达Q1每股收益预计为1.76美元，营收约为787.5亿美元，远超去年同期的440.6亿美元。另有观点认为，英伟达Q1实际营收可能高达830至840亿美元，这一数据大概率将超出市场预期，再次验证“业绩超预期并上调指引”的强劲势头。\n　　驱动这一强劲表现的核心动力来自于数据中心业务的爆发式增长，预计该板块收入将达728.5亿美元，其中计算领域贡献超605亿美元。维谛技术作为英伟达液冷合作伙伴，其Q1净利润翻倍且上调全年指引，从侧面印证了数据中心基础设施需求的激增与全球AI建设浪潮的深入。韦德布什（Wedbush）分析师Dan Ives指出，企业级AI支出正在加速，英伟达即将发布的财报将成为科技股上行的关键催化剂，其Blackwell和Rubin AI芯片的需求与供应失衡状况依然“非常有利”。随着Vera Rubin平台定于2026年下半年发布，新一轮需求周期已然开启，支撑了华尔街对英伟达长期增长前景的信心。\n　　热点解读\n　　英伟达Q1财报大概率大幅超预期，AI算力需求依然强劲。根据历史数据，英伟达实际营收通常超出管理层指引7%至8%。管理层此前给出的FY2027 Q1营收指引为780亿美元，若以此推算，实际营收可能落在830亿至840亿美元区间，显著高于市场一致预期的787亿美元。这一预期差主要源于超大规模云服务商及头部五大云服务商对英伟达AI芯片的强劲需求，这些客户贡献了数据中心业务超50%的营收。\n　　算力产业链景气度持续上行，网络业务成为新增长极。英伟达数据显示，数据中心业务中网络收入同比暴增263%，主要得益于GB200与GB300系统NVLink Fabric的持续爬坡。伴随全球AI巨头如亚马逊、谷歌、Meta等纷纷上调2026年资本开支预期，合计超5000亿美元，为AI算力发展提供了坚实支撑。\n　　投资建议聚焦算力链确定性机会。行业研报指出，算力云服务是最确定的方向，建议关注云厂提价受益标的及国产算力芯片厂商。同时，鉴于网络业务爆发，可重点关注光模块、PCB及CPO等环节的供需改善机会。整体而言，全球AI产业趋势持续强化，看好光、液冷、国产算力及卫星通信四大主线。\n　　投资逻辑\n　　英伟达Q1财报“超预期”已成定局，预计实际营收将落于830亿至840亿美元区间，大幅超越市场一致的787亿美元预期，彰显其作为AI核心龙头的绝对统治力。这一强劲表现得益于数据中心业务的爆发式增长，其中计算与网络收入同比分别飙升58%和263%，Blackwell产品产能持续释放，GB200与GB300系统推动NVLink计算fabric快速爬坡，供需失衡格局对英伟达极为有利。\n　　同时，全球科技巨头如亚马逊、谷歌、Meta及微软全面上调资本开支，为AI算力基础设施注入源源不断的资金动力。中国Token调用量首超美国，进一步印证全球AI应用落地加速。叠加维谛技术等合作伙伴业绩翻倍印证基础设施需求激增，以及Vera Rubin平台下半年发布开启新一轮需求周期，英伟达不仅在短期业绩上确立优势，更在长期技术迭代与生态壁垒上构建深厚护城河，坚定看好其引领全球AI算力浪潮的成长前景，建议重点关注算力云服务、光模块等核心受益标的。\n　　一键布局光模块CPO龙头机会，建议重点关注同类规模、流动性第一的创业板人工智能ETF华宝（159363）及场外联接（A类023407、C类023408），标的指数最新光模块含量为50%，“易中天”一网打尽，约三成仓位布局AI应用，不止是算力核心，也是AI应用代表。\n　　值得注意的是，截至2026.5.15，创业板人工智能ETF华宝（159363）最新规模达73.89亿元，规模居全市场双创AI赛道首位！最近6个月日均成交约8亿元，交投居全市场AI赛道首位。\n　　数据来源：沪深交易所等。\n　　ETF基金相关费用说明：投资者在申购或赎回基金份额时，申购赎回代理机构可按照不超过0.5%的标准收取佣金。场内交易费用以证券公司实际收取为准，不收取销售服务费。\n　　联接基金相关费用说明：创业板人工智能ETF发起式联接C不收取申购费；赎回费7日以内为1.5%，7日（含）以上为0%；销售服务费为0.3%。创业板人工智能ETF发起式联接A申购费100万元以下为1%，100万元（含）-200万元为0.6%，200万元（含）以上为1000元/笔；赎回费7日以内为1.5%，7日（含）以上为0%；不收取销售服务费。\n　　风险提示：创业板人工智能ETF华宝被动跟踪创业板人工智能指数，该指数基日为2018.12.28，发布日期为2024.7.11，创业板人工智能指数2021-2025年年度涨跌幅分别为：17.57%、-34.52%、47.83%、38.44%、106.35%。指数成份股构成根据该指数编制规则适时调整，其回测历史业绩不预示指数未来表现。文中指数成份股仅作展示，个股描述不作为任何形式的投资建议，也不代表管理人旗下任何基金的持仓信息和交易动向。基金管理人评估的本基金风险等级为R4-中高风险，适宜积极型（C4）及以上的投资者，适当性匹配意见请以销售机构为准。任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，投资人须对任何自主决定的投资行为负责。另，本文中的任何观点、分析及预测不构成对阅读者任何形式的投资建议，亦不对因使用本文内容所引发的直接或间接损失负任何责任。基金投资有风险，基金的过往业绩并不代表其未来表现，基金管理人管理的其他基金的业绩并不构成基金业绩表现的保证，基金投资须谨慎。\n\nMACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：周守来","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.44.1","shortVersion":"4.44.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2636818516","isCrawlerRequest":true}