黄金已变成风险资产

21世纪经济报道05-20 16:35

热点栏目自选股数据中心行情中心资金流向模拟交易客户端　　随着国际金价在历史高位间剧烈波动，黄金已由传统意义上的避险资产蜕变为全球波动性最强的风险资产之一。同时，国际机构对金价走势的预期也出现较大分歧。　　今年1月，国际金价从4300多美元/盎司加速上涨到近5600美元/盎司，随后出现断崖式下跌。3月下旬跌破4100美元/盎司，4月虽有所反弹，波动性却越来越强。相关数据显示，...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2636810826?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-05-20 16:35","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","id":"2636810826","market":"sg","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"黄金已变成风险资产","media":"21世纪经济报道","content":"<div>\n<p>热点栏目\n\n自选股\n数据中心\n行情中心\n资金流向\n模拟交易\n\n客户端\n\n\n　　随着国际金价在历史高位间剧烈波动，黄金已由传统意义上的避险资产蜕变为全球波动性最强的风险资产之一。同时，国际机构对金价走势的预期也出现较大分歧。\n　　今年1月，国际金价从4300多美元/盎司加速上涨到近5600美元/盎司，随后出现断崖式下跌。3月下旬跌破4100美元/盎司，4月虽有所反弹，波动性却越来越强。相关数据显示，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-05-20/doc-inhyptan9703539.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"sina","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>黄金已变成风险资产</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n黄金已变成风险资产\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-20 16:35 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-05-20/doc-inhyptan9703539.shtml><strong>21世纪经济报道</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>热点栏目\n\n自选股\n数据中心\n行情中心\n资金流向\n模拟交易\n\n客户端\n\n\n　　随着国际金价在历史高位间剧烈波动，黄金已由传统意义上的避险资产蜕变为全球波动性最强的风险资产之一。同时，国际机构对金价走势的预期也出现较大分歧。\n　　今年1月，国际金价从4300多美元/盎司加速上涨到近5600美元/盎司，随后出现断崖式下跌。3月下旬跌破4100美元/盎司，4月虽有所反弹，波动性却越来越强。相关数据显示，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-05-20/doc-inhyptan9703539.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SGDM","symbol_name":"Sprott Gold Miners ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-05-20/doc-inhyptan9703539.shtml","article_id":"2636810826","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"sina","url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2026-05-20/doc-inhyptan9703539.shtml","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}.art_tit_h1{#titleStyle#}a{#lv2TextColor#}.art_time, .art_cite{#sourceStyle#;} .art_cite{margin-left: 3px;}","selectors":".module-article, article","filters":"header, .voice2, .tags, #norm_qrcode_link_auto, .unfold-box, .action","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2636810826","pubTimestamp":1779266100,"columns":[{"name":"黄金","id":5,"label_key":null}],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"sina","name":"sina"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"　　随着国际金价在历史高位间剧烈波动，黄金已由传统意义上的避险资产蜕变为全球波动性最强的风险资产之一。同时，国际机构对金价走势的预期也出现较大分歧。相关数据显示，3月2日至3月23日，现货黄金累计跌幅达到17.45%，同期纳斯达克指数仅下跌3.18%，恒生指数下跌8.44%。　　资金面已发出明确撤退信号。而国际金价的变动对国内金价必然产生影响，因此，增强风险意识十分必要。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"sina.com.cn","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"159831":"黄金","159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF华安","SGDM":"Sprott Gold Miners ETF","FGDL":"FRANKLIN RESPONSIBLY SOURCED GOLD ETF","PHYS":"Sprott Physical Gold Trust","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","BEGS":"RAREVIEW 2X BULL CRYPTOCURRENCY & PRECIOUS METALS ETF","GOAU":"U.S. Global GO GOLD and Precious Metal Miners ETF","DULL":"MICROSECTORS GOLD -3X INVERSE LEVERAGED ETN","AAAU":"Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF","UYM":"基础材料指数ETF-ProShares两倍做多","XME":"金属与采矿指数ETF-SPDR","SHNY":"MICROSECTORS GOLD 3X LEVERAGED ETN","PALL":"abrdn Physical Palladium Shares ETF","PICK":"iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF","USG":"USCF Gold Strategy Plus Income Fund","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","DBC":"商品指数ETF-PowerShares DB","OUNZ":"VanEck Merk黄金股票基金","GLL":"2倍做空黄金ETF-ProShares","JNUG":"金矿指数二倍做多ETF","BAR":"GraniteShares Gold Shares","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","SGOL":"Abrdn Gold ETF Trust","GOLY":"Strategy Shares Gold Enhanced Yield ETF","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","JDST":"金矿指数二倍做空ETF","GDXD":"MicroSectors Gold Miners -3x Inverse Leveraged ETN","CEF":"Sprott Physical Gold & Silver Trust","GDXJ":"小型黄金矿业ETF(Market Vectors)","GLDM":"SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust","IAUI":"NEOS Gold High Income ETF","RING":"iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","UGL":"2倍做多黄金ETF-ProShares","BTGD":"STKD Bitcoin & Gold ETF","GDXU":"MicroSectors Gold Miners 3x Leveraged ETN","GBUG":"Sprott Active Gold & Silver Miners ETF","IAUM":"ISHARES GOLD TRUST MICRO","DGP":"二倍做多黄金ETN(PowerShares)","GLTR":"abrdn Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares ETF","DZZ":"德银黄金两倍做空ETN","GDXY":"YieldMax Gold Miners Option Income Strategy ETF"},"translate_title":"Gold has become a risky asset","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"159831":1.5,"159934":0.6,"518880":0.6,"GLD":0.6,"GLTR":1.5,"GCmain":1.5,"AAAU":1.5,"CEF":1.5,"GOLY":1.5,"IAU":1.5,"NUGT":0.6,"JDST":1.5,"PHYS":1.5,"UGL":1.5,"GDX":1.5,"GDXD":1.5,"1OZmain":1.5,"UYM":1.5,"DBC":1.5,"GDXJ":1.5,"MGCmain":1.5,"PALL":1.5,"BTGD":1.5,"DGP":1.5,"OUNZ":1.5,"GOAU":1.5,"GDXU":1.5,"GLDM":1.5,"FGDL":1.5,"GBUG":1.5,"GLL":1.5,"IAUI":1.5,"PICK":1.5,"GDXY":1.5,"JNUG":1.5,"XME":1.5,"QOmain":1.5,"BAR":1.5,"SGDM":1.5,"SGUmain":0.6,"DULL":1.5,"DZZ":1.5,"RING":1.5,"SHNY":1.5,"SGCmain":0.6,"DUST":1.5,"BEGS":1.5,"SGOL":1.5,"IAUM":1.5,"USG":1.5},"content_text":"热点栏目\n\n自选股\n数据中心\n行情中心\n资金流向\n模拟交易\n\n客户端\n\n\n　　随着国际金价在历史高位间剧烈波动，黄金已由传统意义上的避险资产蜕变为全球波动性最强的风险资产之一。同时，国际机构对金价走势的预期也出现较大分歧。\n　　今年1月，国际金价从4300多美元/盎司加速上涨到近5600美元/盎司，随后出现断崖式下跌。3月下旬跌破4100美元/盎司，4月虽有所反弹，波动性却越来越强。相关数据显示，3月2日至3月23日，现货黄金累计跌幅达到17.45%，同期纳斯达克指数仅下跌3.18%，恒生指数下跌8.44%。当投资者最需要避风港时，黄金不仅没能独善其身，反而跌得比股票还猛。此前部分将黄金作为组合对冲基石的FOF基金经理陷入被动，他们奉为圭臬的配置策略——“黄金+纳指+红利”等组合，在黄金与权益市场同频暴跌的行情里彻底失灵。\n　　黄金为何不再避险？根源有三。\n　　其一，交易极度拥挤。美国银行全球基金经理调查显示，“做多黄金”已连续数月被视为最拥挤的交易，在今年3月受访基金经理中，近四成认为黄金估值已然偏高。拥挤意味着脆弱，一旦情绪发生逆转，集中平仓便会引发踩踏。\n　　其二，流动性冲击的传导路径发生改变。资产普跌时，投资者面临追加保证金压力，黄金因流动性极佳，反而成为被优先抛售换取现金的资产，大量止损盘和量化抛售触发“下跌—抛售—再下跌”的负反馈。\n　　其三，定价逻辑发生根本性切换。2025年，央行购金、地缘避险、美元信用等因素推动金价不断走高，黄金与实际利率负相关关系大幅弱化。但进入2026年后，黄金与利率的相关性重回高位。黄金已从波动稳定器变成了风险放大器。\n　　判断一项资产是否形成泡沫，关键不在于“贵不贵”，而在于价格建立在何种基础之上。从这个角度审视，黄金当前的高估值地基并不牢靠。\n　　资金面已发出明确撤退信号。今年3月，全球实物黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）遭遇约120亿美元月度净流出，创历史新高，北美市场单月净流出高达130亿美元。纽约商品交易所（COMEX）黄金期货投机性净多头持仓降至近年来最低水平。推动金价接近历史高位的边际资金，正在迅速离场。\n　　同时，美联储4月30日第三次暂停降息，联邦基金利率维持在3.50%至3.75%，今年余下的时间里维持利率不变的概率已升至85%。此前市场普遍押注降息周期将推高金价，这一核心假设正在被现实证伪。作为无息资产，黄金在高利率时代持有成本高昂。5月15日，美债收益率持续攀升，10年期美债收益率一度升破4.59%，创去年5月以来新高；30年期美债收益率突破5.13%，触及年内新高，直接压制金价。更棘手的变量来自供给端，中东冲突推高能源价格，油价高企拉动通胀预期，通胀预期上升反过来收窄降息空间。\n　　目前，国际机构对金价走势的预测分歧甚大，甚至大相径庭。富国银行刚刚发出2027年金价或将涨至8000美元/盎司的预言，摩根士丹利则大幅下调目标价为5200美元/盎司；高盛坚信今年年底黄金将重拾涨势，花旗却提醒3个月内可能跌至4300美元/盎司。\n　　前一阶段支撑金价上涨的因素正在逐步松动，未来金价的下跌幅度与节奏，将取决于这些因素松动的方式与程度。例如，若年内美联储降息预期彻底破灭，甚至出现重启加息的信号，金价将面临远超当前幅度的下跌。又如，全球央行购金的持续性。2026年一季度，全球央行净购金244吨，但多个国家央行已开始反向操作，特别是土耳其前不久抛售近120吨黄金和波兰卖出部分黄金储备，已使人感到阵阵凉意。一旦更多国家央行需求反转，黄金定价中枢将面临重估。\n　　再就是投机资金的离场节奏。眼下COMEX黄金净多头持仓较1月峰值仍有不小的减持空间，情绪反转之下，平仓盘的出逃将会导致金价加速下跌。\n　　据悉，双线资本创始人冈拉克在美联储4月会议后重申看空立场，明确表态当前暂避黄金，不建议新增配置，并警告不排除跌穿4000美元/盎司的可能。\n　　总之，黄金不再是避险工具，而是风险本身。金价持续走高的支撑因素正在不断松动，压制力量已暗流汇聚。由于国际金价此前明显涨过了头，未来也不排除跌过头的可能性。从中长期看，金价迟早会跌穿4000美元/盎司，在合理价位上才能保持稳定。而国际金价的变动对国内金价必然产生影响，因此，增强风险意识十分必要。\n\n新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：刘万里 SF014","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.2","shortVersion":"4.42.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2636810826","isCrawlerRequest":true}