李彦宏说AI时代的度量衡是DAA 过去他四个预言全中了

21世纪经济报道05-18 20:31

李彦宏，又又又当预言家了。　　这次他说：“AI时代的度量衡，不再是DAU——日活用户，而是DAA——日活智能体数。”　　很多人一听：又造新词？别急，互联网人都知道，李彦宏的预言，命中率高得离谱。　　第一个预言：搜索是互联网的入口。　　2001年，国内80%的门户网站都在用百度的搜索技术，那是百度几乎全部的收入来源。但李彦宏做了一个决定：转型做独立的搜索引擎，直接面向用户。结果大家都看到了，这次押注...

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hit","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"89888":0.6,"09888":1.95,"BIDU":1.95,"BIDG":0.6,"KBDU":0.6},"content_text":"李彦宏，又又又当预言家了。　　这次他说：“AI时代的度量衡，不再是DAU——日活用户，而是DAA——日活智能体数。”　　很多人一听：又造新词？别急，互联网人都知道，李彦宏的预言，命中率高得离谱。　　第一个预言：搜索是互联网的入口。　　2001年，国内80%的门户网站都在用百度的搜索技术，那是百度几乎全部的收入来源。但李彦宏做了一个决定：转型做独立的搜索引擎，直接面向用户。结果大家都看到了，这次押注，奠定了百度在BAT阵营中的江湖地位。　　第二个预言：All in AI。　　2010年左右，移动互联网最火，大家都在抢手机入口。李彦宏从那个时候就开始探索AI了，当时大家不懂，觉得他是在“拿搜索赚的钱，养一个不赚钱的AI梦”。十几年后，AI成了全球科技的主战场。　　第三个预言：自动驾驶大有可为。　　2017年，李彦宏坐无人车上五环，被交警调查，全网开嘲。但是从那个时候就做自动驾驶的百度，早早站在了技术前沿。AI大爆发之后，自动驾驶也被认为是最值得期待的落地场景，现在不带辅助驾驶的新车，我们甚至不愿意多看一眼。截至2026年2月，萝卜快跑已经累计在全球提供出行服务超2000万次，覆盖全球26个城市。　　第四个预言：别“卷”模型，“卷”应用。　　2024年，行业烧几百亿元训练大模型。他说：“AI的主角不是模型，是应用。”当时，这被认为是找台阶下。两年后的今天，全球科技公司全在抢智能体应用——全中了。　　发现规律了吗？李彦宏看的是技术的本质走向哪里。　　这次可算是李彦宏第五次预言。他提出的DAA，是在行业还在比“谁家模型参数大、谁家Token多”的时候，换了一把尺子。 李彦宏认为，“Token只代表成本，不代表收益；衡量的是投入，而非产出。” Token如同工业时代的煤炭消耗量，只能反映能源投入的多少，却无法衡量最终产出的产品价值。而DAA更接近AI的本质价值，也更能反映产业的真实活力。他预测，随着智能体向各行各业渗透，未来全球日活智能体数将轻松突破100亿，远超当前移动互联网的用户规模上限。　　很多大模型追求日活（DAU）或月活。DAU是什么？好比开商场，只数每天进门多少人。人进来逛一圈走了，不买东西——对你有啥用？　　而DAA是什么？它看的是：每天有多少个数字员工在帮人干活。AI聊天App，日活上千万，可能距离解决实际问题还差得远；AI智能体，却能实际解决问题，交付结果。　　这次李彦宏提DAA，有网友高赞评论说：“李彦宏的话确实可以听，因为他视野一直都很超前，就是落地执行需要加加油。”　　确实是这样，看得准和干得成，中间还隔着一条大河。但话说回来，如果连方向都看不准，干得再快也没用。　　技术逻辑很清楚：当AI从聊天工具变成干活的工具，你就必须用“干了多少活”来衡量它。百度目前布局全栈自研芯片、模型、智能体产品，就是为了让DAA真正跑通闭环。　　风口上跑得快的人很多，但看得准的人才能穿越周期。你觉得，DAA能取代DAU吗？李彦宏这次又押中了吗？（文章来源：21世纪经济报道）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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