2026年全球石油需求增长预期再遭削减！OPEC加入IEA下调大军但更显“温柔”

智通财经05-13

智通财经APP获悉，受伊朗战争导致霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭影响，石油输出国组织(OPEC)周三下调了2026年全球石油需求增长预测，成为继国际能源署(IEA)之后又一家调降预期的主要能源机构。不过，OPEC对需求受损程度的评估较IEA更为温和。需求预测：2026年下调，2027年上调根据OPEC最新月度报告，2026年全球石油需求预计将增长117万桶/日，低于此前预期的138万桶/日。与此同时，...

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OPEC joins IEA to downgrade the army but is more \"gentle\"","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"159019":1.5,"XES":1.5,"BZmain":0.6,"VDE":1.5,"DDG":0.6,"XLE":1.5,"USL":1.5,"USE":1.5,"WTIU":1.5,"FTXN":1.5,"XOP":1.5,"BNO":1.5,"USOI":1.5,"ERX":1.5,"IXC":1.5,"CLmain":1.5,"DRIP":1.5,"DIG":1.5,"DRLL":1.5,"QMmain":1.5,"SCO":1.5,"DBC":1.5,"DBE":1.5,"OIH":1.5,"DWT":0.6,"OILT":1.5,"PXE":1.5,"IEA":1.5,"OILU":1.5,"GUSH":1.5,"IEO":1.5,"DUG":0.6,"PXJ":1.5,"UCO":1.5,"OILK":1.5,"USO":1.5},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，受伊朗战争导致霍尔木兹海峡持续关闭影响，石油输出国组织(OPEC)周三下调了2026年全球石油需求增长预测，成为继国际能源署(IEA)之后又一家调降预期的主要能源机构。不过，OPEC对需求受损程度的评估较IEA更为温和。需求预测：2026年下调，2027年上调根据OPEC最新月度报告，2026年全球石油需求预计将增长117万桶/日，低于此前预期的138万桶/日。与此同时，OPEC上调了2027年的需求增长预期至154万桶/日，较此前预测高出20万桶/日。该组织认为，消费将在后期出现反弹。OPEC在报告中表示：“尽管地缘政治紧张局势持续，特别是中东地区，但今年全球经济增长仍展现出韧性。”该机构维持其对经济增长的预测不变。霍尔木兹关闭，供需双重承压持续的中东冲突已导致全球关键的石油运输通道霍尔木兹海峡“实际上关闭”，削减了数百万桶的中东原油产量，并推动燃料价格飙升。油价上涨正冲击消费者和企业，迫使各国政府采取措施节约供应。OPEC预计，2026年第二季度全球石油需求平均为1.0457亿桶/日，低于上月预测的1.0507亿桶/日。值得注意的是，此前的报告已经将二季度需求预估下调了50万桶/日。OPEC+增产计划受阻，4月产量骤降OPEC+(包括OPEC及俄罗斯等盟友)此前已同意从4月起恢复增产，但霍尔木兹海峡的关闭使得该协议无法执行。报告显示，4月OPEC+产量进一步下降。根据OPEC用于监测产量的二级来源数据，4月OPEC+原油平均产量为3319万桶/日，较3月大幅下降174万桶/日。需要指出的是，4月数据中包含了阿联酋——该国已于5月1日正式退出OPEC。相比IEA更为乐观当日稍早，IEA在最新月度报告中指出，今年3月和4月，全球观察到的石油库存以约每天400万桶的速度减少。这一降幅为该机构有记录以来的最快水平。自2月冲突升级以来，累计供应损失已达每天1280万桶。仅4月单月，全球供应就进一步减少了每天180万桶。IEA上调了对今年石油消费下降幅度的预估，并警告库存正以创纪录速度下滑。相比之下，OPEC对需求受冲击的评估更为温和，并预计2027年需求将加速回升。分析人士指出，两大机构预测差异反映了对冲突持续时间及经济影响的判断不同。OPEC更倾向于认为经济基本面具有韧性，而IEA则更关注短期供需失衡带来的价格压力。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"CCBot/2.0 (https://commoncrawl.org/faq/)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.43.1","shortVersion":"4.43.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2635383907","isCrawlerRequest":true}