“TACO”退潮“NACHO”登场? 华尔街不再押注霍尔木兹速开花旗警告油价或再冲120美元

智通财经05-09

智通财经APP获悉，华尔街金融巨头花旗发布研报表示，尽管库存消耗、战略石油储备释放、亚洲国家因高油价背景而进口减少、需求相对走弱以及交火势力阶段性出现的降级迹象，已经帮助缓冲了能源成本相关推动影响，但如果美国与伊朗之间的长期和平谈判仍然显得棘手，导致霍尔木兹海峡长期处于封锁与管控状态，国际油价基准——布伦特原油价格可能从近日明显回落后的100美元附近点位进一步上涨，甚至有可能再创阶段性新高。据了解...

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华尔街不再押注霍尔木兹速开 花旗警告油价或再冲120美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-09 11:46 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1439846.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，华尔街金融巨头花旗发布研报表示，尽管库存消耗、战略石油储备释放、亚洲国家因高油价背景而进口减少、需求相对走弱以及交火势力阶段性出现的降级迹象，已经帮助缓冲了能源成本相关推动影响，但如果美国与伊朗之间的长期和平谈判仍然显得棘手，导致霍尔木兹海峡长期处于封锁与管控状态，国际油价基准——布伦特原油价格可能从近日明显回落后的100美元附近点位进一步上涨，甚至有可能再创阶段性新高。据了解...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1439846.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2236285917.USD","symbol_name":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1439846.html","article_id":"2634491185","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2634491185","pubTimestamp":1778298384,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"stock_zhitongcaijing","name":"智通财经网"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"“NACHO”交易主题迅速席卷华尔街!霍尔木兹长期封锁重塑油价、通胀与利率预期随着霍尔木兹海峡危机无法快速化解，华尔街交易员正从“TACO”交易切换至“NACHO”交易。“NACHO”交易不仅影响短期投机行为，更传递了宏观结构性信号：霍尔木兹危机对全球能源供应链、通胀预期及金融资产定价的影响可能远超市场此前预期。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"zhitongcaijing.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","ERX":"二倍做多能源ETF-Direxion","UDN":"做空美元指数-PowerShares","IXC":"全球能源业ETF-iShares","TACO":"BERTO ACQUISITION CORP","OILK":"ProShares K-1 Free Crude Oil ETF","UGA":"United States Gasoline Fund LP","OILT":"Texas Oil Index ETF","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","BK4504":"桥水持仓","DRIP":"Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. 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Wall Street no longer bets on Hormuz's rapid opening, Citi warns that oil prices may rush another $120","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"OILT":1.5,"VDE":1.5,"IEO":1.5,"IXC":1.5,"DRIP":1.5,"UDN":1.5,"GUSH":1.5,"OILU":1.5,"DRLL":1.5,"DBO":1.5,"DBC":1.5,"BWET":1.5,"UGA":1.5,"WTIU":1.5,"XES":1.5,"DIG":1.5,"FTXN":1.5,"PXE":1.5,"BNO":1.5,"PXJ":1.5,"DUG":1.5,"UUP":1.5,"OIH":1.5,"TACO":1.5,"USE":1.5,"OILK":1.5,"USOI":1.5,"DBE":1.5,"FAZ":1.5,"ERX":1.5,"USL":1.5},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，华尔街金融巨头花旗发布研报表示，尽管库存消耗、战略石油储备释放、亚洲国家因高油价背景而进口减少、需求相对走弱以及交火势力阶段性出现的降级迹象，已经帮助缓冲了能源成本相关推动影响，但如果美国与伊朗之间的长期和平谈判仍然显得棘手，导致霍尔木兹海峡长期处于封锁与管控状态，国际油价基准——布伦特原油价格可能从近日明显回落后的100美元附近点位进一步上涨，甚至有可能再创阶段性新高。据了解，随着霍尔木兹海峡危机无法快速化解，华尔街交易员们似乎正从“TACO”交易策略(押注美伊和谈取得进一步积极进展或特朗普总是临阵退缩)切换至“NACHO”交易策略——即假设海峡长期封锁不可避免(Not A Chance Hormuz Opens)。布伦特原油价格虽从4月底每桶126美元的战时高点回落，但仍在100美元上方，较冲突升级前高出近50%。自2025年4月特朗普向全球发起贸易战以来，“TACO ”策略(Trump Always Chickens Out / 特朗普总是临阵退缩)被交易员们广泛采用，每当特朗普发出新的更加激进的关税威胁或者抛出其他的重大威胁引发市场暴跌时，全球股债市场的投资者们便押注他最终会退缩或者实际落地的政策较特朗普的口头威胁大幅削弱，进而选择在适当的低迷时机大举抄底，大举押注股票市场将在不久后出现大举反弹。但是当前越来越多交易员倾向于押注“NACHO”这一交易主题。花旗警告油价上行风险未解除花旗集团的策略师们表示，其基准预测情景仍然是，霍尔木兹海峡的中断将在5月底之前显著缓解，但同时称，美伊达成协议的难度已经增加了近期油价大幅上行风险。这家华尔街巨头维持0至3个月布伦特油价预期将在每桶120美元的高价预测点位;同时其预计布伦特原油第二季度平均价格为每桶110美元，随后第三季度回落至95美元，第四季度回落至80美元。花旗援引船舶追踪数据称，中国4月和5月石油进口可能减少约240万桶/日，从2025年平均约1160万桶/日降至约920万桶/日，这也减轻了全球石油市场的供给层面压力。不过，花旗集团的策略师们表示：“我们继续认为，原油期货交易市场低估了霍尔木兹海峡被封锁的潜在持续时间和市场尾部风险。”花旗还表示，即便霍尔木兹海峡有序解除封锁，短期到中期内全球石油供给仍然非常有限，距离恢复至2月底中东地缘政治冲突前的运输水平可能相当遥远，而在此期间全球向中东国家抢购或者因库存恐慌而囤积石油可能大幅推高油价。中东地区整体石油产量可谓因伊朗战争而出现了大幅削减，而且这一次产量缩减以及油价暴涨背后的逻辑已经不只是“霍尔木兹海峡运输受阻”，而是“减产+出口船舶运力受阻+基础设施被导弹打击而受损”三重叠加;这些因素也是为何投资咨询公司Yardeni Research创始人埃德·亚德尼(Ed Yardeni)等华尔街资深策略师们近日强调，在全球经济已承受高融资成本与地缘冲击的环境下，能源股正在从周期交易，升级为组合里的战略性超配。即便海峡重新开放，原油流向、基础设施修复、船队部署、炼厂爬坡、库存补回都要花数月时间;国际能源署负责人比罗尔甚至表示，战争扰乱的相当一部分油气产能，恢复到战前水平可能需要长达两年。换言之，停火只能压缩最前端的恐慌溢价，却无法迅速抹平后端的供给缺口与库存真空。“NACHO”交易主题迅速席卷华尔街!霍尔木兹长期封锁重塑油价、通胀与利率预期随着霍尔木兹海峡危机无法快速化解，华尔街交易员正从“TACO”交易(押注短期干预或特朗普政策退缩)切换至“NACHO”交易。尽管库存消耗、战略石油储备释放以及中国进口下降在一定程度上缓冲了油价压力，但美伊谈判僵局背景下霍尔木兹海峡恢复航行遥遥无期，加大了原油价格短期上行风险，这为“NACHO”交易提供了宏观逻辑支撑。布伦特原油价格虽从4月底每桶126美元的战时高点回落，但仍在100美元上方，较冲突升级前高出约50%。航运保险市场则提供了更直接的风险定价信号：战争险溢价曾高达船体价值约2.5%，而战前仅约0.1%，当前仍是战前水平的八倍。市场已逐渐接受海峡封堵的“常态化特征”，不仅油市，航运保险和利率市场也已将持续封锁纳入定价。利率市场对能源冲击长期化的反映最为明显：短端利率重新定价，收益率曲线平坦化趋势显著，显示投资者对持续高油价与通胀风险的忧虑加剧。“NACHO”交易不仅影响短期投机行为，更传递了宏观结构性信号：霍尔木兹危机对全球能源供应链、通胀预期及金融资产定价的影响可能远超市场此前预期。投资者必须调整策略，将持续高油价及供应链风险纳入中长期投资决策框架。从宏观和大宗商品框架看，华尔街老兵埃德·亚德尼(Ed Yardeni)在此时选择看多能源股，并判断“即使战争结束油价也回不到冲突前水平”，本质上是把这轮油价冲击定义为结构性供给损伤，而不是一次性地缘政治风险溢价。真正决定油价趋势的，可能不再只是战火是否暂歇，而是霍尔木兹海峡、海运保险、油轮运力、炼厂修复与库存重建这整套能源链条的“战后重定价”。美国政府虽延长停火，但对伊朗港口的封锁仍在继续，石油等能源贸易市场所面对的并不是“停火协议=供应恢复”的线性逻辑。一旦油价中枢被永久性抬高，全球通胀回落路径会更黏，美联储与其他央行的降息空间会被压缩，风险资产估值也会继续受约束;相较之下，能源板块既能承接高油价带来的盈利改善，又能对冲战争重启、航运再受阻和库存继续下滑的尾部风险。也正因此，Yardeni所谓“利用停火乐观情绪带来的回调增持能源”，本质上是在押注一个更长尾、更难逆转的供给重构周期，而不是押注短期新闻标题。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.44.0","shortVersion":"4.44.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2634491185","isCrawlerRequest":true}

“TACO”退潮“NACHO”登场? 华尔街不再押注霍尔木兹速开 花旗警告油价或再冲120美元

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“TACO”退潮“NACHO”登场? 华尔街不再押注霍尔木兹速开花旗警告油价或再冲120美元