巴菲特为何对当下美股市场格外警惕

证券日报 06:43

■ 韩昱　　近日，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司（以下简称“伯克希尔”）举办2026年年度股东大会，“股神”巴菲特首次以观众身份出席。巴菲特在接受媒体采访时表示，当前的美股市场如同“带赌场的教堂”，赌博投机风气已达到顶峰。　　在笔者看来，巴菲特的判断并非情绪化感慨，恰恰揭露了美股市场在高位运行已久、投机气氛过于浓烈的隐患。　　其一，一个观察窗口就是当前风靡美股市场的“零日期权”。这种超短期交易品种是指...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2634073424?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2026-05-11 06:43","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","id":"2634073424","market":"sh","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"巴菲特为何对当下美股市场格外警惕","media":"证券日报 ","content":"<div>\n<p>■ 韩昱\n　　近日，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司（以下简称“伯克希尔”）举办2026年年度股东大会，“股神”巴菲特首次以观众身份出席。巴菲特在接受媒体采访时表示，当前的美股市场如同“带赌场的教堂”，赌博投机风气已达到顶峰。\n　　在笔者看来，巴菲特的判断并非情绪化感慨，恰恰揭露了美股市场在高位运行已久、投机气氛过于浓烈的隐患。\n　　其一，一个观察窗口就是当前风靡美股市场的“零日期权”。这种超短期交易品种是指...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2026-05-11/doc-inhxnmvx0698038.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"sina","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>巴菲特为何对当下美股市场格外警惕</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n巴菲特为何对当下美股市场格外警惕\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-11 06:43 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2026-05-11/doc-inhxnmvx0698038.shtml><strong>证券日报 </strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>■ 韩昱\n　　近日，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司（以下简称“伯克希尔”）举办2026年年度股东大会，“股神”巴菲特首次以观众身份出席。巴菲特在接受媒体采访时表示，当前的美股市场如同“带赌场的教堂”，赌博投机风气已达到顶峰。\n　　在笔者看来，巴菲特的判断并非情绪化感慨，恰恰揭露了美股市场在高位运行已久、投机气氛过于浓烈的隐患。\n　　其一，一个观察窗口就是当前风靡美股市场的“零日期权”。这种超短期交易品种是指...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2026-05-11/doc-inhxnmvx0698038.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BRK.B","symbol_name":"伯克希尔B","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2026-05-11/doc-inhxnmvx0698038.shtml","article_id":"2634073424","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"sina","url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2026-05-11/doc-inhxnmvx0698038.shtml","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}.art_tit_h1{#titleStyle#}a{#lv2TextColor#}.art_time, .art_cite{#sourceStyle#;} .art_cite{margin-left: 3px;}","selectors":".module-article, article","filters":"header, .voice2, .tags, #norm_qrcode_link_auto, .unfold-box, .action","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2634073424","pubTimestamp":1778452980,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"sina","name":"sina"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"　　近日，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司举办2026年年度股东大会，“股神”巴菲特首次以观众身份出席。巴菲特在接受媒体采访时表示，当前的美股市场如同“带赌场的教堂”，赌博投机风气已达到顶峰。　　在笔者看来，巴菲特的判断并非情绪化感慨，恰恰揭露了美股市场在高位运行已久、投机气氛过于浓烈的隐患。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"sina.com.cn","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRKU":"2倍做多BRKB ETF-Direxion","LU2168564149.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"BAZ\" (EUR) ACC","LU0053666078.USD":"摩根大通基金-美国股票A（离岸）美元","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BRKW":"Roundhill BRKB WeeklyPay™ ETF","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - US Value A (acc) SGD","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD","LU0251131958.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1366333091.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LU1571399168.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL LONG/SHORT EQUITY \"IP\" (USD) ACC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU0683600562.USD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","LU2487616109.SGD":"JPM AMERICA EQUITY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0648001328.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD","LU0157215616.USD":"FIDELITY GLOBAL FOCUS \"A\" INC","LU1914381329.SGD":"Allianz Best Styles Global Equity Cl ET Acc H2-SGD","IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU0210528500.USD":"JPM AMERICA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0787776722.HKD":"AB SELECT US EQUITY PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0971096721.USD":"富达环球金融服务 A","IE000M9KFDE8.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LARGE CAP VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","BK4176":"多领域控股","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","IE0034235303.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US RESEARCH ENHANCED CORE EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","HK0000914660.USD":"GFI Global Select Equity Fund Class A (USD)","LU0154236417.USD":"BGF US FLEXIBLE EQUITY \"A2\" ACC","LU2168564495.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AI\" (EUR) ACC","LU1201861249.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity PA SGD-H","LU2168563687.JPY":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AAZ\" (JPYHDG) ACC","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU0130102774.USD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA USD","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","LU2168564222.USD":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AAZ\" (USDHDG) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BRKC":"YieldMax BRK.B Option Income ETF","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU0980610538.SGD":"Natixis Harris Associates US Equity RA SGD-H","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU2168564065.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AAZ\" (EUR) ACC","HK0000914686.HKD":"GFI Global Select Equity Fund Class A (HKD)","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BRKD":"Direxion Daily BRKB Bear 1X Shares","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc"},"translate_title":"Why Buffett is extra wary of the current U.S. stock market","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":1.96,"BRK.A":1.96,"BRKC":0.6,"BRKW":0.6,"BRKD":0.6,"BRKU":0.6},"content_text":"■ 韩昱\n　　近日，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司（以下简称“伯克希尔”）举办2026年年度股东大会，“股神”巴菲特首次以观众身份出席。巴菲特在接受媒体采访时表示，当前的美股市场如同“带赌场的教堂”，赌博投机风气已达到顶峰。\n　　在笔者看来，巴菲特的判断并非情绪化感慨，恰恰揭露了美股市场在高位运行已久、投机气氛过于浓烈的隐患。\n　　其一，一个观察窗口就是当前风靡美股市场的“零日期权”。这种超短期交易品种是指在当日到期并失效的期权合约，可以使交易者利用短期价格走势，快速进行价格博弈，其高杠杆、高风险的特性获得美股投资者追捧。不过，巴菲特在此次采访中直言，此类交易不是投资，而是彻头彻尾的赌博。诚然如此，这种脱离企业基本面研究、仅博弈日内价格波动的交易产品，恰是美股市场浓厚投机氛围的直观体现。\n　　这种以投机为主的市场结构蕴含着多重隐患。例如，系统性风险聚集，“零日期权”等短期期权交易的高杠杆有可能会在市场波动加剧时引发连锁平仓，继而放大价格波动，增加金融市场的脆弱性；再如，市场定价机制失灵，短期交易偏好和“追涨杀跌”的羊群效应，使得市场价值发现功能不断弱化，加剧金融市场的不稳定性。\n　　其二，美股市场已较长一段时间处于高估状态，虽然指数刷新纪录，但严重依赖高估值科技股的市场表现。少数超大型科技公司对整体指数估值的影响不断扩大，尤其在财报季期间更为明显。\n　　其三，美联储货币政策的不确定性提高了美股市场风险。当前，美联储内部投票结构的分裂显著加剧，美联储货币政策在“抗通胀”与“稳增长”双重目标之间的分歧进一步加深。4月末，美联储召开货币政策会议，宣布今年连续第三次维持利率不变，并在会议声明中明确表示通胀“偏高”，释放对通胀黏性的担忧。美股市场依赖宽松预期支撑估值，美联储降息迟迟难以落地、空间也十分有限，都对美股市场走向蒙上一层阴影。\n　　值得一提的是，在巴菲特用言论给美股市场“浇冷水”的同时，伯克希尔公司也在用“真金白银”表明自己的判断。截至3月31日，伯克希尔的现金及现金等价物储备飙升至惊人的3973.8亿美元，再次刷新历史最高纪录。接近4000亿美元的创纪录现金储备，是伯克希尔在“后巴菲特”时代首份财报中发出的强烈信号：当前美股市场或已缺乏足够有吸引力的投资机会。\n　　在笔者看来，巴菲特的警示也为各类投资者敲响了警钟：摒弃赌徒心态，远离高杠杆短期投机，聚焦企业长期基本面，才是穿越市场周期、规避风险的核心准则。\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：杨赐","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.2","shortVersion":"4.42.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2634073424","isCrawlerRequest":true}