中信证券：ROE同比提升处于历史高位头部券商机构优势延续

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智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，建议沿业绩增长高确定性、长线行业竞争格局改善两条主线布局券商板块：预计年内市场成交活跃、股权融资回暖、衍生品业务修复将驱动业绩提升，行业 ROE 有望达近十年 90% 分位数，而当前板块 PE、PB 估值仅处近十年20%分位数以下，估值性价比凸显;长期并购重组协同效应与杠杆扩容将推动头部券商份额提升，叠加资金面持续优化，板块修复空间充足。可关注头部券商以及...

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分位数，而当前板块 PE、PB 估值仅处近十年20%分位数以下，估值性价比凸显;长期并购重组协同效应与杠杆扩容将推动头部券商份额提升，叠加资金面持续优化，板块修复空间充足。可关注头部券商以及...</p>\n\n<a 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估值仅处近十年20%分位数以下，估值性价比凸显;长期并购重组协同效应与杠杆扩容将推动头部券商份额提升，叠加资金面持续优化，板块修复空间充足。可关注头部券商以及优质中型券商。中信证券主要观点如下：行业盈利能力同比上升，头部机构集中度处于高位26Q1上市券商共实现扣非归母净利润595亿元，同比增长39.9%，达到25Q3水平的87.6%;调整后营业收入1512亿元，同比增长31.5%，达到25Q3的88.9%。行业扣非ROE回升至2.06%，同比提升0.46ppts，仅次于25Q3的2.46%。头部券商优势更为突出，共实现扣非归母净利润444亿元、同比增长47.5%，扣非ROE达2.35%、同比提升0.62ppts;利润集中度达74.7%、收入集中度达69.3%，均较去年同期有所提升。资产负债表延续扩张，26Q1上市券商主动型总资产突破12万亿元，经营杠杆同比提升0.36至4.18倍，头部券商经营杠杆达4.58倍且与行业整体差距由25Q1末的0.34扩大至26Q1末的0.40，资本运用效率领先行业。从收入结构看，轻资本业务(经纪+投行+资管)与重资本业务(利息+交易)收入占比均为46%，结构趋于均衡。轻资本业务：经纪、投行头部券商优势地位突出，资管净收入规模超越25Q326Q1上市券商经纪业务净收入477亿元，同比+44.0%、达到25Q3的97.8%，季度股票与基金成交规模达176万亿元、较25Q3的166万亿元进一步增长，但受2025年佣金率降至1.6bps的历史新低影响，量增价减格局延续;前十大经纪净收入券商均为头部机构，规模优势持续扩大。26Q1上市券商投行业务净收入89亿元，同比+31.0%、达到25Q3的92.0%;市场方面，26Q1A股股权融资规模2538亿元(同比+63.9%)、港股IPO规模1099亿港元(同比+489.3%)，均实现快速增长;A股股权承销前十券商合计市占率提升至92%，其中中信证券、中信建投、华泰证券分别以28%、20%、18%市占率位列前三，集中度进一步提升。资管业务净收入135亿元，同比+27.6%、达到25Q3的112.0%，超越25Q3水平，26Q1末公募基金规模高位稳定于38万亿元、25Q4末券商资管规模连续四个季度增长至6.4万亿元(其中集合资产管理计划规模升至3.3万亿元)，叠加2025年私募股权子公司收入普遍回暖，共同推动业务景气度上行。重资本业务：利息净收入超越25Q3，投资交易能力决定行业分化26Q1上市券商利息净收入147亿元，同比+91.8%、达到25Q3的104.0%，实现对25Q3的超越。收入端，26Q1融资融券季度日均余额达2.66万亿元，创历史新高;成本端，多数券商利息支出同比下降，量增本降协同推动利息净收入大幅修复。投资交易净收入551亿元，同比+12.6%但仅为25Q3的73.2%，拖累整体营收，主因26Q1股市风格切换且波动加剧(上证指数、科创50、创业板指区间涨幅分别约-2%、-6.5%、-1%，与区间最高涨幅之间出现明显差距)，对券商把握节奏与控制回撤能力提出更高要求。从配置结构看，中金公司、华泰证券、广发证券等头部券商期初股债比集中在0.11-0.19、衍生金融资产占比1.17%-3.97%，非方向性投资交易布局较深，26Q1投资收益率维持在0.77%-1.12%相对稳健;而权益敞口偏高(股债比0.23-0.29)、衍生金融资产占比偏低的中小券商收益率降幅明显。成本端：管理费率优化叠加信用减值释放共同支撑利润弹性26Q1上市券商业务及管理费合计714亿元、同比+19.0%，但受益于收入端更快增速，管理费率持续下行至47.2%、较25Q1的52.1%下降4.9ppts;头部券商管理费率为43.4%、较25Q1下降4.4ppts，规模效应下成本管控优势凸显。信用减值方面，26Q1合计信用减值损失仅10.1亿元，较25Q4的54.4亿元、25Q3的30.5亿元显著回落，叠加两融市场平均担保比例维持在280%左右的历史高位，行业风险敞口可控、资产质量稳健，为利润弹性的充分兑现形成正向支撑。国际业务：以\"高杠杆+高ROE\"双优特征崛起，逐步成为头部券商新增长引擎2025年头部券商国际子公司业绩普遍高速增长，营收端广发证券国际子公司(+115.2%)、中信建投国际子公司(+102.7%)等领跑，利润端中信建投国际子公司(+177.6%)、东方证券国际子公司(+125.3%)等弹性突出。核心指标看，中信建投国际子公司ROE19.1%、杠杆率11.7倍，显著高于公司整体水平;中金公司境外收入与国际子公司净利润占比分别达29.5%、46.9%，国际化程度行业领先。整体来看，国际业务凭借更广阔的全球市场空间、更灵活的加杠杆能力以及显著优于境内的ROE水平，有望持续放大对集团盈利能力的拉动作用，成为头部券商穿越境内周期、实现估值与业绩双修复的核心引擎。风险因素股票与基金成交金额超预期下滑;IPO及再融资超预期收紧;二级市场超预期下跌或波动加剧;客户信用风险暴露;公司战略执行不及预期;政策落地或监管边际放松不及预期。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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中信证券：ROE同比提升处于历史高位 头部券商机构优势延续

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中信证券：ROE同比提升处于历史高位头部券商机构优势延续