2025年乳业触底企稳：行业加速分化打法也都变了

第一财经05-07

经历了两年多的深度调整后，中国乳制品行业在2025年触底企稳。　　记者注意到，2025年液奶下滑的趋势有所放缓，但在品类和渠道的创新推动下，伊利、蒙牛、新乳业等头部乳企的业绩恢复增长，与中小区域乳企的差距进一步拉大，行业增长逻辑也在发生改变。　　行业分化加速　　2025年乳制品行业下滑的趋势仍在持续，尼尔森IQ数据显示，2025年国内乳制品全渠道消费整体下滑8.6%。但从2025年业绩看，头部乳企...

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stabilizes in 2025: the industry accelerates differentiation and the play style has also changed","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600882":1,"600887":1,"02319":1,"001318":1,"002732":1,"002946":1},"content_text":"经历了两年多的深度调整后，中国乳制品行业在2025年触底企稳。　　记者注意到，2025年液奶下滑的趋势有所放缓，但在品类和渠道的创新推动下，伊利、蒙牛、新乳业等头部乳企的业绩恢复增长，与中小区域乳企的差距进一步拉大，行业增长逻辑也在发生改变。　　行业分化加速　　2025年乳制品行业下滑的趋势仍在持续，尼尔森IQ数据显示，2025年国内乳制品全渠道消费整体下滑8.6%。但从2025年业绩看，头部乳企的业绩指标正在转好。　　财报显示，伊利股份（600887.SH）2025年实现营业总收入1159.3亿元，同比增长0.1%，归母净利润115.7亿元，同比增长36.8%。蒙牛乳业（02319.HK）全年营收822.5亿元，同比下降7.3%，归母净利润回升至15.5亿元，扣除一次性资产减值因素后，经调整归母净利润为39.6亿元。新乳业（002946.SZ）全年营收112.3亿元，同比增长5.3%；归母净利润7.3亿元，同比大增36%。　　业绩会上，伊利集团董事长潘刚表示，虽然全球政治和经济不确定性给市场恢复节奏带来一定影响，但行业最难的时候已经过去。蒙牛集团总裁高飞也认为，中国乳业正在筑底企稳，复苏态势明确。　　相比之下，区域乳企仍未走出调整，处于营收和净利双降的困境。华南区域乳企燕塘乳业（002732.SZ）2025年营收15.9亿元，同比减少8.5%，归母净利润5762.5万元，同比减少43.9%，下滑幅度较上年有所放大。江西区域乳企阳光乳业（001318.SZ）的情况也类似，营业收入和归母净利润都下滑了8%以上。　　从2026年第一季度财报看，头部乳企的业绩表现也好于中小区域乳企。　　在业内看来，分化背后除了南方乳企本身原奶成本较高外，也与头部乳企对中小区域乳企的挤压有关。燕塘乳业在财报中称，全国各乳制品企业均将华南视为战略高地，通过本地化建厂、规模化生产构建成本优势，并在华南发起高频促销攻势，市场空间被进一步压缩。　　头部乳企调整增长逻辑　　由于国内乳企以液奶产品为主，液奶的持续下行给乳企带来较大压力。记者注意到，2025年头部乳企已经找到应对方案。　　年报显示，2025年伊利和蒙牛的液态奶收入依然有所下滑，但通过个性化和差异化的创新产品，液奶的降幅已有所收窄，而新增量主要来自奶粉、奶酪、成人营养等新赛道。　　常温液奶的下滑尚未完全缓解，但低温业务增长较快。伊利管理层在业绩会上表示，2025年常温液奶收入仍有一定下滑，但跌幅已在收窄，一方面受益于提前进行的渠道调整，另一方面在产品端推出高质价比和定制化创新产品，围绕口味、口感、营养功能等维度实现了差异化供给。低温业务上，伊利推出多种低温花色奶，带动低温白奶品类同比增长20%以上。　　同期，蒙牛推出了高蛋白系列和零糖双蛋白牛奶等新品，2025年鲜奶业务也实现双位数增长。新乳业则依靠低温鲜奶和低温特色酸奶的差异化产品，全年低温鲜奶、低温酸奶均实现双位数增长。此外，头部乳企加速抢占会员店、零食量贩店等新渠道，也带来了增量。　　凯度数据显示，2025年液态奶需求出现分化，基础白奶品类增长放缓，契合消费新趋势的细分品类表现亮眼，乳制品消费正从普适性营养补充，逐步向基于场景、功能与情感的精细化、个性化选择阶段发展。　　值得注意的是，在液奶之外，头部乳企的奶酪、奶粉、营养品等多元业务成为业绩增长的主要推动力。2025年，蒙牛冰淇淋、奶粉、奶酪业务分别增长4.2%、9.7%和21.9%，其中婴幼儿配方奶粉和成人奶粉均实现双位数增长；奶酪业务中，妙可蓝多（600882.SH）2025年和2026年第一季度收入分别为56.3亿元和16.3亿元，同比增长16.3%和31.8%。伊利业绩会也透露，乳脂及奶酪、成人营养等业务2025年均实现了双位数增长。　　在高飞看来，过去乳制品行业过度聚焦存量市场竞争或价格博弈，没有充分考虑如何扩大需求空间，导致乳制品价值实现不足，现阶段乳企首要考虑的是如何把市场蛋糕做大。因此，蒙牛在基础营养之外，也在加速布局功能营养和医学营养市场。　　伊利同样将B端深加工业务、成人营养品和国际化作为新五年的主攻方向。伊利管理层在业绩会上表示，上述业务不会在一到两年内快速释放业绩，但将承担起未来长期增长的重任。　　独立乳业分析师宋亮对第一财经记者表示，目前头部乳企的业绩增长更多来自业务调整，来自新品类和新渠道的增长带动，以及供应链优势带来的竞争红利，而非行业整体性复苏，这也改变了原有的行业竞争模式，长期来看，头部乳企的优势会更加明显。（文章来源：第一财经）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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2025年乳业触底企稳：行业加速分化 打法也都变了

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2025年乳业触底企稳：行业加速分化打法也都变了