一财社论：树立知止意识是对巴菲特最好的尊重

第一财经05-05

股神的光环效应是哈撒韦公司持续投资成功的重要元素，但对投资人而言也是投资人格独立的拦路虎。　　5月2日，本年度伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东大会在美国奥马哈召开，公司首席执行官阿贝尔等亮相。　　这是去年阿贝尔接棒后的首次年度股东会，也是一场巴菲特不在主席台但依然成为灵魂人物的盛宴，全球慕名而来者依然聚焦“股神”的最新思考。　　从这一点看，哈撒韦公司依然与巴菲特捆绑在一起，刻着巴菲特的基因。对哈撒韦公司...

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Establishing a Sense of Knowledge and Zhi is the Best Respect for Buffett","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BRKW":0.6,"BRKD":0.6,"BRK.A":1.91,"BRKC":0.6,"BRKU":0.6},"content_text":"股神的光环效应是哈撒韦公司持续投资成功的重要元素，但对投资人而言也是投资人格独立的拦路虎。\n　　5月2日，本年度伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东大会在美国奥马哈召开，公司首席执行官阿贝尔等亮相。\n　　这是去年阿贝尔接棒后的首次年度股东会，也是一场巴菲特不在主席台但依然成为灵魂人物的盛宴，全球慕名而来者依然聚焦“股神”的最新思考。\n　　从这一点看，哈撒韦公司依然与巴菲特捆绑在一起，刻着巴菲特的基因。对哈撒韦公司来说，褪去巴菲特光环，摆脱“股神”崇拜，才算是真正的独立。\n　　“股神”巴菲特是哈撒韦公司在国际金融市场的一张金字招牌，长期主义与价值投资是其简约、精致而便于传播的叙事结构，但很少有人先于“股神”巴菲特了解哈撒韦这家公司，不少人也并不清楚哈撒韦公司是一家以保险为立业之基的公司。\n　　同样，投资者愿意与哈撒韦公司建立信任关系，不单是基于这家公司的保险本业，更多是基于其长期以来令人惊叹的成功投资。这一方面触发市场对保险姓“保”与姓“投”等商业运营模式的长期争议，一度让投资连接险、万能险等成为保险公司热衷的业务；另一方面也触发慕名效仿者盲人摸象般的汲取，由于保险资金久期特征，国内很多企业一度热衷于争抢保险牌照，人寿保险公司竞相涌现，还有的慕名者用价值投资、长期主义等诠释各自的投资哲学，在不同的市场试错。\n　　然而，哈撒韦公司的成功投资业绩，恐怕是不可复制的。这是由哈撒韦公司的独特性所决定的。最为显见的独特性，是哈撒韦公司以保险立业，让其拥有了其他投资公司很少能满足的长周期资金，这让巴菲特拥有可以践行长期主义的资本；同时巴菲特在市场中的光环效应，让“股神”投资组合成为了资本市场的现象级存在，巴菲特资产组合成为了价值投资的代名词；吸引人的还有价值投资信念，以及市场贪婪时选择恐惧、市场恐惧时选择贪婪的择时择机观等。很少有公司能集齐所有元素。\n　　这不仅考验众多“股神”膜拜者和效仿者，也考验着哈撒韦公司本身。因为不论是价值投资、长期主义，还是择时择机的逆向思维，都很难量化定义，都与运气和时间函数有着千丝万缕的联系，都可以归属于幸存者偏差。\n　　巴菲特作为一代投资宗师，其长期的亮丽业绩诠释了成功投资的要义。慕名者对巴菲特真正的尊重，就是做好自己，摒弃个人崇拜，警惕用名人名言的只言片语进行无所畏惧的试错。巴菲特和哈撒韦公司的成功，如果可以挖掘出一个成功的密码，那就是独立判断和思辨能力，做好自己而非效仿别人。\n　　为此，学会忘记，比勤于记忆更为重要。投资和风险管理，本质上就是将认知范围之内的确定性转换成利润；将超越认知范围的不确定性，交易给更能识别其风险概率分布的投资者。\n　　市场不需要股神。股神在市场逻辑上本质是一种投资行为的懒惰，是独立投资人格的缺失和匮乏。而树立独立的投资人格，首先是知止，知道和明晰自身的认知边界，并严格将自身的投资行为限定在认知范围之内，以找寻确定性收益；同时，树立长期学习精神，拓宽自身认知的可能性边界。\n　　当然，个体认知边界的识别，需要一个可量化的评价标准。一个相对可信的标尺就是清晰表达，因为语言是思维的边界，一个投资机会和标的，若自身无法用清晰易懂的语言进行无歧义表达，那么必然是自身的认知盲区。巴菲特和哈撒韦公司很少对处于科技成长期的项目进行投资布局，其背后是巴菲特践行“知止”的坚定信念。\n　　投资是一场人性的炼狱，塑形的是投资者的独立人格。每年的伯克希尔·哈撒韦股东大会，已成为股神膜拜会，股神的光环效应是哈撒韦公司持续投资成功的重要元素，但对投资人而言也是投资人格独立的拦路虎。忘掉“股神”的光环，不论是对哈撒韦公司，还是市场投资者，都将是与市场噪声做最好的告别。投资的圣杯是对内求索，而非追逐热点，认清了这一点，才是对巴菲特最好的尊重。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：刘万里 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