跨国药企业绩大爆发，集体加仓中国

21世纪经济报道05-07 16:19

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！　　记者丨季媛媛　　编辑丨张伟贤　　2026年第一季度，全球制药巨头的业绩版图再度刷新。　　一边，礼来凭借替尔泊肽的强势爆发点燃增长引擎，诺和诺德用司美格鲁肽四条管线合计突破528亿丹麦克朗全线扩张；另一边，默沙东在K药顶住专利竞争压力的同时开始培育新一代增长点，赛诺菲以Dupixent续写自免领域的统治传奇。　　在...

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pharmaceutical companies exploded, and collectively added positions in China","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"EURmain":0.68,"MRK":1.87,"AZN":1.81,"NVOH":0.6,"NVOX":0.6,"SNY":1.85,"MEURmain":0.6,"BMY":1.71,"EUO":0.6,"FXE":0.6,"LLY":1.95,"NVS":1.83,"NVO":1.92},"content_text":"炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 　　记者丨季媛媛\n　　编辑丨张伟贤\n　　2026年第一季度，全球制药巨头的业绩版图再度刷新。\n　　一边，礼来凭借替尔泊肽的强势爆发点燃增长引擎，诺和诺德用司美格鲁肽四条管线合计突破528亿丹麦克朗全线扩张；另一边，默沙东在K药顶住专利竞争压力的同时开始培育新一代增长点，赛诺菲以Dupixent续写自免领域的统治传奇。\n　　在多款核心产品的合力带动下，这些跨国药企在2026开出强势开局。\n　　有券商医药行业分析师对21世纪经济报道记者表示，当前跨国药企的业绩已高度“超级重磅药化”，手握“王牌”产品足以决定公司的增长、估值乃至战略走向。\n　　纵观财报数据，一个清晰的信号也正在浮现：在专利悬崖、政策博弈与市场竞争的多重挑战中，如何深度挖掘并战略性运营核心大单品，已从“增长选择”演变为“生存命题”。\n　　减肥药双巨头业绩全线增长 \n　　2026年开年，礼来以一份炸裂的业绩向外界证明，代谢赛道是当下最值得重仓的方向之一。根据财报，礼来2026年一季报实现营收197.99亿美元，同比增长56%；净利润同比暴涨168%至73.96亿美元，每股收益达8.26美元，同比增长179%。\n　　以上数据大幅超越市场预期，礼来随即宣布上调全年业绩指引，将预期营收增加20亿美元至820亿至850亿美元。\n　　替尔泊肽撑起礼来接近三分之二的营收：降糖版Mounjaro第一季度收入86.62亿美元，同比大增125%，减重版Zepbound也贡献了41.6亿美元，同比增长80%。\n　　这意味着，替尔泊肽整体贡献约128亿美元，在礼来期内总收入占比高达64%。值得注意的是，Mounjaro海外市场的销量增长，部分得益于该药物在中国被纳入医保目录。\n　　代谢赛道的另一侧，诺和诺德的司美格鲁肽同样延续全线增长的态势。根据2026年第一季度财报，期内诺和诺德销售达968.23亿丹麦克朗，以固定汇率计算增长32%。司美格鲁肽合计销售额突破528.88亿丹麦克朗。其中减重版Wegovy注射液收入182.35亿丹麦克朗，降糖版Ozempic收入278.25亿丹麦克朗，减重版口服片剂Wegovy贡献22.56亿丹麦克朗，降糖版口服片剂诺和忻收入45.72亿丹麦克朗。\n　　四种剂型全面出击，显示出诺和诺德在GLP-1赛道上从注射到口服、从减重到降糖的全场景覆盖能力。\n　　在代谢赛道“双雄并立”的同时，两大巨头亦开始积极布局下一代产品。\n　　礼来口服小分子GLP-1受体激动剂Foundayo于4月1日获美国FDA批准上市，成为全球首个口服小分子非肽类GLP-1受体激动剂，公司寄望其能大幅扩大受益人群。\n　　诺和诺德减重版口服片剂Wegovy处方量同样快速增长，一季度单季处方超过130万张，累计超过200万张。此外，诺和诺德还宣布国家药品监督管理局于3月正式批准依柯胰岛素司美格鲁肽注射液诺和杰在中国的上市申请，该药是全球首个且目前唯一获批的基础胰岛素/GLP-1RA周制剂，计划2026年下半年在中国全球首发。\n　　CEO Mike Doustdar对Wegovy口服片的战略意义定位明确，称其为“治疗肥胖症的唯一口服肽类药物”，正在开创全新品类，“重新定义患者和医生的预期”。\n　　前述分析师指出，目前口服GLP-1的竞争已从“诺和诺德单点领先”升级为“礼来追赶+全面对标”的格局。\n　　“小分子路线在成本和规模化生产上潜力巨大，未来，谁能实现‘高质量+低成本+稳供应’，谁就能掌握市场主动权。”该分析师说。\n　　跨国药企的下一个战场：加注中国\n　　除了GLP-1市场的竞争，各家跨国药企也在聚焦各自的“王牌”产品扩展以寻找市场增量。\n　　默沙东财报显示，2026年第一季度公司销售额达162.9亿美元，超出分析师预期的158.3亿美元，增长主要来源于Keytruda需求强劲及新产品Winrevair和Keytruda皮下注射剂型的贡献。K药以约80亿美元的单季收入实力，继续扮演核心支柱的角色。\n　　尽管整体业绩超出预期，但默沙东同时也收窄了全年的财务展望，外界普遍关注K药专利到期后公司如何平稳过渡。默沙东并非毫无准备——K药皮下注射剂型已在今年Q1初步展现增长潜力，Winrevair等新药也在逐步接力。\n　　更重要的是，默沙东在中国市场的BD布局亦不可小觑。2026年一季度，中国创新药对外授权交易总额突破600亿美元，跨国药企通过许可引进与收购中国Biotech资产以对冲专利悬崖的策略正在成为趋势。默沙东与其他跨国药企一道，已将“加注中国创新”视为战略性防御与进攻并存的长期解法。\n　　赛诺菲2026年第一季度交出一份亮眼成绩单，总销售额达105.1亿欧元（约合122.9亿美元），按固定汇率计算增长13.6%，营业利润29.7亿欧元（约34.7亿美元），两者均超市场预期。核心重磅产品度普利尤单抗继续扮演挑大梁的角色，单季销售额达41.7亿欧元，同比增长30.8%，再次突破40亿欧元大关。\n　　然而在业绩报喜之下，赛诺菲的担忧同样明显。投资者和高管层均已敏锐意识到：Dupixent的专利将于下个十年初到期，而赛诺菲至今尚未拿出一条足以填补这一收入缺口的确定性管线。在过去12个月里，受一系列临床试验结果不尽如人意的拖累，赛诺菲股价已累计下跌约13%。这也意味着，赛诺菲面临的最大挑战便是如何提升研发产出效率、打破对单一重磅药的过度依赖。\n　　诺华一季度的处境颇具张力：整体净销售额同比下滑1%至131.13亿美元，为近两年来首次同比下滑，受仿制药冲击和定价压力侵蚀，核心营业利润同比下降12%至48.97亿美元，不及市场预期。\n　　在全局乏力之下，诺华有几大核心品牌仍呈现爆发式增长。Pluvicto作为核药领域首个重磅炸弹，一季度销售额达6.42亿美元，按固定汇率同比增长70%。这一成绩在一个关键维度上值得关注：在竞争高度均质化的肿瘤治疗领域，诺华通过押注RLT这一技术壁垒极高的差异化赛道，为自己赢得了独特的护城河。\n　　小核酸药物Leqvio一季度也大涨69%至4.52亿美元，全年销售额有望突破20亿美元。在重磅品牌和上市新药的高增长并进之下，诺华仍维持全年净销售额低个位数增长的核心指引，充分显示出核心产品对穿越周期性波动的战略价值。\n　　阿斯利康同样凭借其差异化管线收获了强劲增长。公司一季度实现营收152.88亿美元，同比增长8%，其中肿瘤板块贡献67.98亿美元，增长16%。第一三共与阿斯利康联合开发的ADC核心产品Enhertu收入8.31亿美元，同比增长34%，远超分析师预期，与第一三共合并后总销售额达14.22亿美元。表现更为突出的是TROP2 ADC药物Datroway，其单季度收入0.43亿美元，同比增长超10倍，合并合作方收入后总销售额达1.02亿美元。\n　　前述分析师指出，目前，市场给予这些“王牌”产品的估值溢价，已远超传统药物市场规模，一旦市场存在波动，可能引发估值重估。\n　　突围\n　　2026年，专利到期的“定时炸弹”对一众巨头而言是个不小的挑战。\n　　例如，百时美施贵宝在发布2025年四季度财报时，其中一个核心主题便是多款重磅药品正面临专利保护到期的挑战。血癌药物Revlimid和Sprycel的销量持续下滑，且这两款药物分别于2022年和2024年失去专利独占权。未来几年，抗凝药Eliquis和抗癌药Opdivo的专利保护也将陆续到期，而这对组合去年全球销售额总计达245亿美元，占公司总收入的51%。\n　　此外，价格政策亦在全面收紧。2026年4月，国务院办公厅印发《关于健全药品价格形成机制的若干意见》，从创新药首发价格自评、医保谈判支付标准联动、集采常态化推进、线上线下比价透明等多维度重塑药品定价规则。\n　　前述分析师认为，面对定价压力、仿制药围猎和资本市场预期持续压低的局面，跨国药企的突围策略正呈现几条明确的路径。\n　　其一，横向延伸适应症和剂型矩阵，延长产品生命周期。K药和Dupixent都在反复演绎该策略——通过扩大适应症覆盖面和推出皮下注射等新剂型给产品“续命”。\n　　其二，深挖中国创新资产的BD价值。2026年一季度中国创新药对外授权交易总额突破600亿美元，跨国大药企通过海外BD资产买入、合作开发与股权投资等方式，以小成本撬动高壁垒创新管线，成为“对冲专利悬崖”的主流思路。\n　　其三，押注高度差异化的前沿赛道并加速资产组合的多极化。诺华Pluvicto踩中核药技术壁垒，阿斯利康牢牢占据ADC和罕见病新药的高地，礼来与诺和诺德在口服小分子GLP-1领域率先落子，均展现出从“大单品依赖”向“多极增长”的主动转型。\n　　“面对专利、市场和政策的多重挑战，头部药企正寻求突破：一方面，在巩固现有‘药王’地位的同时，积极培育下一代增长引擎；另一方面，将ADC、核药、RNA疗法、基因编辑等前沿技术视为长期战略资产，通过内部研发与外延并购持续加码，以分散单一技术路径的风险。”前述分析师进一步指出。\n　　在控费趋严的背景下，药企也在加速利用真实世界数据、AI辅助营销等手段，优化营销资源配置，提升高价值产品在核心科室的渗透率，以更低的成本撬动更大的销售额。\n　　“当核心重磅药既是跨国药企手中赖以盈利的王牌，也是迫使其推动战略变革的‘隐形枷锁’时，谁能在守护当下业绩的同时，有魄力在专利悬崖之前完成下一代管线的前瞻性布局，谁才有可能在全球制药格局持续重构的下一个十年中赢得先机。”该分析师强调。\n　　据21世纪经济报道此前消息，当前市场环境下，多家跨国药企（MNC）接连宣布加大中国市场投资。跨国药企在华战略已从“在中国卖药”全面升级为“在中国创新、在中国生产、与中国共创”。这不仅是看好中国市场的信心投票，更是其全球供应链和研发版图重构的关键一环。\n新浪声明：此消息系转载自新浪合作媒体，新浪网登载此文出于传递更多信息之目的，并不意味着赞同其观点或证实其描述。文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：刘万里 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