降息预期再遭打击：三位地方联储主席反对宽松措辞，柯林斯称“下次加息也不意外”

智通财经05-08

智通财经APP获悉，波士顿联储主席苏珊·柯林斯(Susan Collins)表示，她同意上周货币政策会议上几位同僚对美联储会后声明中措辞的异议——该措辞暗示央行最终将恢复降息。在接受采访时，柯林斯称她“强烈支持”维持利率不变的决定，但她也倾向于修改声明措辞，使其“不再那么紧密地贴合‘下一步行动将是降息’这一隐含假定”。达拉斯联储行长洛里·洛根(Lorie Logan)、克利夫兰联储行长贝丝·哈马克...

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Kashkari)均支持4月29日维持利率不变的决定，但反对声明中所谓“宽松倾向”的表达。哈马克在周四另一场采访中表示，她认为FOMC声明“有些误导，至少从我目前对经济状况的判断来看是如此”。柯林斯今年并非利率决策机构——联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的投票成员。但她对声明措辞的看法突显出，FOMC内部正在逐渐转向不再考虑近期降息。她的评论表明，柯林斯属于越来越多希望美联储更明确释放“下一次行动有可能是加息也有可能是降息”信号的官员之一。这种动态将使得美国总统特朗普提名的美联储主席人选凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh)在未来几周获参议院确认后，更难以推进降息。预计沃什将在6月16日至17日美联储政策会议召开时已执掌美联储。旧金山联储行长玛丽·戴利(Mary Daly)周四在接受采访时暗示，她与异议者立场并不一致，并淡化了委员会内部对声明措辞的分歧。戴利表示：“我认为声明的措辞不如美联储利率制定委员会的实际行动重要。会议释放的真正信号是——大家在维持利率不变的决定上是一致的。”柯林斯在波士顿联储总部接受全面采访时表示，由于中东冲突引发的能源冲击使美联储实现2%通胀目标的进程受阻，她倾向于对未来利率路径采取“更加不可知”的立场。她认为，利率可能会在“更长时期内维持不变，随后才会进一步放宽”。不过，在特定情境下，美联储也可能需要考虑加息。柯林斯称：“我认为确实存在某些情景，届时需要认真考虑加息的可能性。”但她强调这并非自己的基准预期。通胀隐忧长期以来，柯林斯一直主张在货币政策上保持“耐心”，去年秋季曾多次对降息持犹豫态度。她表示，随着美联储青睐的通胀指标在3月升至3.5%，汽油价格跳升至2022年以来最高水平，她对价格压力的担忧与日俱增。柯林斯说：“我更关注的是通胀的持续性。”她补充称，随着冲突的全球溢出效应持续，供应链中断可能导致价格上涨从能源蔓延至食品。她认为，利率应维持在当前“温和限制性”水平。“但如果通胀轨迹明显朝着错误方向移动”，政策制定者将“需要重新评估合适的政策立场”。柯林斯表示，她的“基准情景”(最有可能的情景)是通胀在未来几个月加速至略高于3.5%，到年底回落至接近3%的水平。但随着对伊朗战事持续，出现“更严重后遗症”的替代情景的概率已经上升。此外，新关税的实施——其中部分税种被最高法院叫停——也可能带来上行的价格压力。就业与双重使命在美联储双重使命的另一端，定于周五公布的4月就业报告预计将显示就业增长放缓，而根据经济学家预测，失业率可能维持在4.3%不变。柯林斯表示，劳动力市场呈现出“异常的平衡”迹象——失业率较低但招聘率也较低。她指出，在强劲消费支出的背景下，需求仍具韧性。但通胀仍是柯林斯关注的核心。“我非常担心通胀的原因之一，是我认识到它对人们生活的影响，”她说，“价格水平已经很高。”柯林斯表示，遏制高通胀将让美联储能够带来一个更具活力的普惠经济，而劳动力市场也正显示出企稳迹象。这是她周三在罗德岛州一整天的走访中与房地产和教育专业人士分享的观点。她听到的反馈多涉及整个经济中不断上涨的成本，以及人工智能正在取代应届毕业生入门级岗位的劳动力市场转变。罗德岛州的失业率略高于全美4.3%的水平。住房市场的企业也指出了“双层经济”的迹象——开发商专注于建设豪华公寓以最大化利润。与此同时，雇主们则指出，缺乏可负担住房是全州范围内吸引和留住工人的障碍。“我既看到了蓬勃发展的领域，也听到了关于一些处境艰难、前景不太乐观的领域的反馈，”柯林斯说，“这是我们非常重视的事情。”纽约联储行长约翰·威廉姆斯(John 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