千亿液冷龙头，翻车了

格隆汇04-26

液冷赛道是过去一年A股热度最高的AI核心赛道叙事之一。B200强制液冷落地、英伟达放开供应商合作权限、谷歌TPU直接采购，每一轮关键催化，都推动资金加速涌入该赛道。英维克股价从27元一路攀升至121元，市值逼近1200亿元，跻身“千亿级液冷龙头”行列。4月20日财报披露当日，公司股价涨停，创出121.74元的历史新高。然而当日晚间，一季报正式出炉：公司净利润大幅下滑82%，仅录得865.76万元，...

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NVL72进一步将单机柜功耗推到更高的水平。当单机柜功率超过30kW，风冷便无法有效散热，液冷从“可选方案”变成“强制路径”——这不是市场预期在驱动，是物理定律在倒逼。需求端确定之后，供给端的格局也在发生根本性变化。英伟达从GB300开始全面放开供应商权限，不再像GB200时代那样指定Vertiv作为唯一CDU供应商，而是将采购决策权下放给鸿海、广达等ODM厂商。对大陆液冷企业而言，这意味着进入英伟达供应链的窗口被打开了。另一边，谷歌TPU液冷采取直采模式，供应商不经过ODM中间环节，直接向谷歌提供配套产品，供应链层级壁垒被进一步压低。市场规模方面，全球液冷市场正处于高速增长期。根据Grand View Research数据，全球数据中心液冷市场规模将从2025年的67亿美元增长至2030年的178亿美元，年复合增速21.6%。而国海证券2026年4月的最新测算——2026年整体数据中心液冷市场规模有望达到165亿美元，2025-2026年增速约59%。渗透率方面，根据TrendForce数据，AI数据中心液冷渗透率从2024年的14%跃升至2025年的33%，预计2026年进一步提升至47%。中国市场增速更快——根据IDC数据，2029年中国液冷服务器市场规模162亿美元，年复合增速46.8%。从近几年AI产业趋势来看，液冷由0到1的加速渗透趋势是确定的，而在成为千亿龙头前后，英维克本身被寄予厚望的海外业务，还未成为拉动营收的主心骨。英维克海外业务毛利率52.64%，国内的23.83%，差了一倍多。但海外营收仅占总营收的14%。花旗报告指出，海外毛利率虽高，但扩张受阻，受本地服务及地缘因素制约。高毛利的海外业务体量太小，短期内难以对整体利润形成显著拉动。竞争对手方面，格局也比想象中严峻。高澜股份，2025年报毛利率28.94%，已反超英维克的27.86%。液冷收入占比约47%——是英维克的6倍（占比之比）。截至2025年三季度，在手订单14.56亿元。该公司在超算中心等细分场景占据领先份额，为字节跳动独家供应12U浸没式液冷模组，是其液冷核心供应商之一。申菱环境，投资8亿元新建液冷智造基地，现有产能趋向饱和。深度绑定华为、字节、阿里，截至2025年8月，数据服务板块新增订单约为去年同期2倍，五大生产基地满负荷运转。曙光数创发布了全球首个兆瓦级相变浸没液冷整机柜C8000 V3.0。营收增速74.3%，是英维克增速的两倍多，技术路线上走出了一条差异化的路。英维克营收体量（60.68亿元）仍然是同行中最大的，是全链条自研的冷板式龙头，这一点没有争议。但英维克面对的，是液冷纯度更高，与大厂深度绑定，技术和产能不断追赶的诸多同业对手。2026年一季度，公司净利润仅865万元，即使后三季恢复到2025年同期水平，全年净利润也就5亿—6亿元。对应当前约900亿市值，PE仍在150-180倍。哪怕按最乐观假设——2026年净利润翻倍到10亿元——PE还高达90倍。对比液冷行业平均PE约46倍、同业2026年一致预期PE中枢约24倍，英维克的估值溢价完全建立在“液冷龙头”这个身份标签上。而连续的股价调整也揭示了，市场对这份估值溢价的信心基础正在被动摇。03、尾声总的来说，液冷赛道增长可期，但“千亿液冷龙头”的估值叙事却在一季报面前出现了裂缝。公司去年股价从27元涨至121元（约348%），而每股收益仅增长约15%，由此可知绝大部分的市值增长来自估值抬升，而非盈利增长，更何况液冷只贡献了不到一成的收入。一旦“液冷龙头”的身份被连续证伪，杀估值的空间远大于杀业绩。如果市场确认这不是一门高净利率的科技股生意，而只是一个高增长、低利润、重资本、强竞争的制造业生意，那么这就不是短期情绪修复的问题，而是一次估值范式的切换。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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