东方财富证券：杠杆跃升为ROE核心变量头部券商有望成为双重受益者

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智通财经APP获悉，东方财富证券发布研报称，当前杠杆已成驱动券商ROE 提升的核心变量，监管“扶优限劣”的差异化风控导向有望为优质券商释放广阔的资本空间。海外经验表明，杠杆的质量远比杠杆的倍数更为重要。对中国券商而言，加杠杆的“正确打开方式”并非简单扩表，而是通过资产扩容、策略升级、客需转型构建稳定的资产回报能力，让杠杆真正“长在客户身上”。那些率先完成客需化转型、构建起穿越周期经营韧性的头部...

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提升的核心变量，监管“扶优限劣”的差异化风控导向有望为优质券商释放广阔的资本空间。海外经验表明，杠杆的质量远比杠杆的倍数更为重要。对中国券商而言，加杠杆的“正确打开方式”并非简单扩表，而是通过资产扩容、策略升级、客需转型构建稳定的资产回报能力，让杠杆真正“长在客户身上”。那些率先完成客需化转型、构建起穿越周期经营韧性的头部券商，有望成为政策红利与估值修复的双重受益者。东方财富证券主要观点如下：杠杆已成为ROE 提升的关键变量2008 年至2025Q1-3 我国上市券商除客户资金杠杆从1.56 倍稳步提升至4.09 倍，而同期自有资产净利率由4.3%降至1.8%。在ROA  受制于佣金率下行、费率承压的长期背景下，杠杆变动对ROE 的解释力度已超越ROA，成为边际上的决定性变量。加杠杆是服务实体、培育一流投行的战略要求2024  年风控指标修订及后续监管表态标志着监管态度从“统一约束”向“分类引导”的实质性转折，“扶优限劣”导向明确。头部券商在风控能力、资本效率上具备显著优势，同时用表需求更为紧迫，应成为加杠杆的主力军。适度打开优质券商的杠杆空间，既是服务新质生产力、强化资本中介功能的现实需要，也是培育具备全球竞争力的一流投行必须跨越的门槛。对标海外，应锚定美国当前“稳杠杆+稳ROA”的成熟范式美国投行在危机后历经十余年重塑，形成了“低波动ROA+客需驱动+高杠杆”的稳态均衡，高盛、摩根士丹利2016-2025 年杠杆分别从9.9 倍、10.7  倍稳步提升至14.5 倍、12.7 倍，同期ROE  分别从9%、8%提升至14%、16%，其核心在于将资产负债表作为服务客户的工具，通过做市、衍生品等客需业务实现稳定的资产回报。反观日本，监管宽松下1992-2024  年行业杠杆率从5 倍飙升至31 倍，而同期ROE  大幅震荡，多次达到负值，均值仅为3.0%，方向性扩张使杠杆更多只成为波动放大器。考虑到中美环境差异，中国券商不能简单复制美国的杠杆倍数，而是追求一种“美式均衡”的内核，即以客需驱动业务实现稳定的资产回报，在监管引导下实现有质量的、结构性的杠杆提升。客需化转型是加杠杆的“正确打开方式”券商传统自营以方向性业务为主，其收益与市场涨跌高度相关，导致业绩波动剧烈，因此推动自营业务向非方向性转型已成为行业大势所趋。该行认为主要路径如下：通过资产类别扩容（固收向FICC 全品种跨越、权益OCI  配置显著提升）与策略升级（向相对价值、宏观对冲、量化策略等多策略演进）实现资产结构优化；②向客需驱动模式质变，聚焦FICC  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东方财富证券：杠杆跃升为ROE核心变量 头部券商有望成为双重受益者

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东方财富证券：杠杆跃升为ROE核心变量头部券商有望成为双重受益者