股价5日拉升逾40%，礼来的70亿美元豪赌让市场看清低估的传奇生物(LEGN.US)？

智通财经04-22

5个交易日内大幅拉升41.72%，如此表现对于股价已下跌超半年、区间最大跌幅逾60%的传奇生物来说，可谓“久旱逢甘霖”。传奇生物的此轮上涨，既有业绩的助推，也有市场情绪的带动。智通财经APP了解到，今年4月14日，强生发布26Q1季度财报，在其当期241亿美元的总营收中，抗肿瘤药物收入达到69.73亿美元，而其中传奇生物/强生的Carvykti成为该业务的核心增长驱动力之一，当期销售额达到5.97...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1431710.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>5个交易日内大幅拉升41.72%，如此表现对于股价已下跌超半年、区间最大跌幅逾60%的传奇生物来说，可谓“久旱逢甘霖”。传奇生物的此轮上涨，既有业绩的助推，也有市场情绪的带动。智通财经APP了解到，今年4月14日，强生发布26Q1季度财报，在其当期241亿美元的总营收中，抗肿瘤药物收入达到69.73亿美元，而其中传奇生物/强生的Carvykti成为该业务的核心增长驱动力之一，当期销售额达到5.97...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1431710.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SG9999013999.USD","symbol_name":"UOB UNITED GLOBAL HEALTHCARE FUND (USDHDG) 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Eli Lilly's $7 billion gamble let the market see the undervalued legendary creature (LEGN.US)?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"LEGN":1.98,"LLYX":0.6,"LLYZ":0.6,"ELIL":0.6,"LLII":0.6,"ELIS":0.6},"content_text":"5个交易日内大幅拉升41.72%，如此表现对于股价已下跌超半年、区间最大跌幅逾60%的传奇生物来说，可谓“久旱逢甘霖”。传奇生物的此轮上涨，既有业绩的助推，也有市场情绪的带动。智通财经APP了解到，今年4月14日，强生发布26Q1季度财报，在其当期241亿美元的总营收中，抗肿瘤药物收入达到69.73亿美元，而其中传奇生物/强生的Carvykti成为该业务的核心增长驱动力之一，当期销售额达到5.97亿美元，同比增长62.1%。得益于强劲的收入表现，市场预计该药销售额将在预计今年超过25亿美元，成为CAR-T领域首款超级重磅炸弹。强劲的业绩兑现显然成为传奇生物股价的强心剂，带动传奇生物(LEGN.US)股价在4月14日和15日连续拉升。分别收涨5.65%和9.79%。但相比亮眼业绩的助推，礼来4月20日宣布以最高70亿美元总对价收购Kelonia的消息带来的市场情绪波动似乎才是此轮传奇生物股价大幅拉升的关键催化剂。一项70亿美元收购引发的市场反思从去年3月，阿斯利康以10亿美元收购比利时公司EsoBiotec;到去年8月，艾伯维以21亿美元收购Capstan Therapeutics，吉利德以3.5亿美元收购Interius BioTherapeutics;再到去年10月，BMS以15亿美元收购Orbital Therapeutics，一年4起重磅收购案直指in vivo CAR-T赛道。而此次礼来以32.5亿美元首付款、最高70亿美元的总对价收购Kelonia，更是把这场MNC的“扫货游戏”推向了一个新高潮。市场之所以为之震动不仅仅是因为此次收购金额高达70亿美元，还有就是被收购的Kelonia，其核心CAR-T疗法KLN-1010仅有4名患者3个月随访的早期数据支持。但实际上，礼来70亿美元重金买下的不仅仅是这款疗法，还有这家公司的核心技术——iGPS(in vivo Gene Placement System，体内基因定位系统)，是一种基于改造过的慢病毒载体的in vivo CAR-T平台。据悉，这个平台理论上可以容纳任何CAR构型，对接任何靶点以及覆盖任何适应症。该公司核心品种KLN-1010在递送效率、安全控制和疗效持久性方面的数据在去年ASH年会上以大会迟发性口头报告的形式发布。数据显示，首批接受治疗的4名患者全部实现了MRD阴性，反应率达到100%;并且该疗法无需进行清淋预处理，安全性良好，未出现严重的细胞因子释放综合征。从此次交易来看，礼来押注的更多是Kelonia的in vivo CAR-T平台，其核心着力方向还是解决传统CAR-T疗法在制造、成本和时间上的核心瓶颈，这也是目前所有“现货型”CAR-T技术被业界期待的关键原因。但这一技术方向尚未取代传统的Ex vivo CAR-T，则是因为不少药物仍存在递送效率、安全控制和疗效持久性方面的关键障碍。以Caribou公司为例，这家公司曾在2022年5月公布了首个人体临床试验数据，其开发的现货型CAR-T疗法CB-010，在治疗复发难治性B细胞非霍奇金淋巴瘤的1期临床试验中效果积极。在可评估的5名患者中，ORR达100%，CR达80%。完全缓解的4名患者中，最长的完全缓解纪录为六个月。然而，该临床数据发布的还不到一个月时间内，Caribou于6月10日再次宣布，接受上述现货型CAR-T细胞治疗的患者在治疗后6个月内癌症复发。这一消息直接引发了业界和市场对其现货型CAR-T疗法持久性的质疑，导致其股价短期内大跌超20%。也就是说，对于Kelonia而言，仅有4名患者的3个月随访数据支持是其核心品种KLN-1010目前最大的不足。而礼来70亿美元正是押注在这款尚未获长期数据和业绩支持的技术平台与产品之上。这便引起了市场投资者的深度反思。18cm暴力拉升或许只是开始从当前信息来看，Kelonia公司的CAR-T疗法KLN-1010展示的首发适应症为多发性骨髓瘤，也就是说该疗法目前与传奇生物Carvykti属于同适应症赛道。投资者需要注意的是，Carvykti是全球首个且唯一获批二线治疗多发性骨髓瘤的BCMA CAR-T疗法，并有望在该适应症治疗路径中持续前移，最终成为多发性骨髓瘤治疗的基石药物。该疗法在今年Q1季度已实现了近6亿美元销售额，并在2025年以18.87亿美元的年度销售额问鼎全球最畅销CAR-T疗法，有望带动传奇生物在今年实现运营层面盈利。然而在这种背景下，传奇生物截至今年4月17日的市值仅39.16亿美元，仅比此次礼来向Kelonia支付的首付款高不到7亿美元，离该交易总对价70亿美元相差甚远。这也意味着，在如此市场定价面前，传奇生物被严重低估。从基本面来看，根据传奇生物此前披露的2025年财报，在Carvykti方面，该疗法的CARTITUDE-5的顶线数据预计将在今明两年公布，该试验前瞻性地纳入了MRD活性检测指标，传奇将有望成为首个与FDA讨论CAR-T疗法中MRD阴性与PFS、总生存期相关性的公司，最终推动Carvykti挺进一线治疗。除了Carvykti外，属于传奇生物的in vivo CAR-T项目LVIVO-TaVec100(CD19/CD20双靶点体内CAR-T生成制剂)已于去年5月启动I期IIT临床试验，并已完成首例给药，预计今年下半年公布初步数据。从短线角度来看，近5个交易日受公司业绩和市场消息面催化，传奇生物股价大幅上涨超40%，伴随着股价的拉升，其股票成交量也整体走高，4月16日单日成交量突破300万股，4月20日的股票成交量为740.65万股，显示出量价齐升的形态。不过传奇生物股价短线的大幅拉升也触发了明确的超买信号。以4月20日指标为例，虽然在MACD金叉后红柱走高支持上行，但RSI指标来到91.88显示严重超买;与此同时，其KDJ指标处于76.51高位，对应BOLL线突破上轨，整体技术信号显示传奇生物或面临较大的短线回调压力。但从中长线角度来看，在经历了超半年的股价下行后，从今年2月起，传奇生物股价便已在低位横盘震荡且场内卖盘减少导致整体日成交量较此前下滑明显。随着主力入场吸筹建仓，在筹码充分换手后目前在筹码分布图上已形成明显的底部单峰，表明主力吸筹充分，控盘程度较高。近日的放量大涨带动传奇生物的股价顺利突破单峰时，单峰密集形态得到进一步确认，由此在技术面上显示出中长线的入场信号。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"2","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.42.1","shortVersion":"4.42.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2629604010","isCrawlerRequest":true}