前小摩策略师：标普500上涨10%并非基本面走强，而是CTA基金在补仓

智通财经04-17

智通财经APP获悉，原油价格已逐步回落至3月下旬以来的水平，维持在相对稳定的区间，而标普500指数却在同期大幅上涨约10%。这种分歧引起了市场的高度关注，摩根大通前首席策略师兼全球研究联席主管马尔科·科拉诺维奇(Marko Kolanovic)指出，此轮股市的强劲表现并非源于大宗商品基本面的实质性改善，亦非地缘政治局势的根本好转，而更多是受到金融市场内部仓位动态调整及系统性交易流的推动。他强调，...

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Kolanovic)指出，此轮股市的强劲表现并非源于大宗商品基本面的实质性改善，亦非地缘政治局势的根本好转，而更多是受到金融市场内部仓位动态调整及系统性交易流的推动。他强调，这种独立于宏观经济催化剂之外的涨势，揭示了当前市场定价机制中潜在的机械化特征。在这一波行情中，以趋势跟踪为核心策略的商品交易顾问(CTA)基金发挥了关键作用。科拉诺维奇分析认为，这类基金此前对股票的配置比例普遍偏低，随着市场技术面信号转强，CTA被迫根据算法指令增加股票敞口，从而形成了巨大的额外买盘压力。这种机械化的再配置过程往往具有“追涨”属性，即价格上涨触发买入指令，而买入行为又反过来进一步强化涨势，形成了一个自我强化的正反馈循环。值得注意的是，科拉诺维奇在过去两年中一直是华尔街最著名的“大空头”之一，他多次预测市场会因高利率和地缘政治压力而暴跌，但美股却屡创新高。据报道，该策略师去年已离开摩根大通。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"CCBot/2.0 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