疯了！1年3只十倍股！

格隆汇04-15

2026年A股光通信板块持续火爆。从2025年4月8日市场底部算起，源杰科技涨了1299%，长飞光纤1077%，腾景科技1011%。三只“一年十倍股”全部出自光通信。尽管龙头"易中天"也没有掉队，我们可以看出一条清晰的资金迁徙路径，从光模块到光芯片到光纤光缆，产业链牛股轮番出现。光通信为什么能源源不断地产出牛股？资金一轮一轮地"往上走"，究竟为何？01 因何加速？光通信从2023年炒到现在，为什么...

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CPO交换机。台积电COUPE硅光子平台全面量产。博通已经交付了全球首款51.2Tbps CPO以太网交换机（Bailly）。NPO方面，华工科技3月2日AI战略发布会上推出3.2T NPO产品，已落地行业头部客户。光迅科技的3.2T硅光NPO也已在OFC 2026上发布，并完成了国内头部CSP全系统验证。OCS方面，Google 2026年预计需要约15,000台300端口OCS交换机。工信部4月2日印发普惠算力通知，推动OCS部署。技术路线加速的直接后果，是对上游光学器件的需求指数级增长。传统光模块成本中，TOSA（光发射组件）、ROSA（光接收组件）和DSP芯片合计占56-61%。CPO把这些高价值组件直接集成到交换芯片封装里。以前800G光模块用2-4颗透镜，到了更高速率要4-6颗以上。光芯片从\"按需采购\"变成了\"提前一年锁定产能\"。市场蛋糕已经变大。美银预测2030年CPO市场规模150亿美元。Lumentum预测2030年光通信市场接近900亿美元，相比2025年约200亿美元，年复合增长率超30%。光通信在AI资本开支中的占比，从传统的5%提升到了15-20%。但是，技术路线再怎么演进，产能跟不上那就是白搭。这恰恰是第二个催化。维度二：供给端产能瓶颈。高端EML光芯片，全球仅少数几家厂商能做，50G以上EML国产化率不足20%。上周就爆出了个大消息：Lumentum CEO在东京放话：2028年产能已全部售罄。英伟达已经向Lumentum和Coherent各注资20亿美元，合计40亿美元锁定产能。而Coherent的财报显示，其Book-to-bill比率超过4:1——订单是出货量的4倍以上。Lumentum股价从2025年初70-80美元飙升到2026年4月超900美元，涨幅超10倍。市场在用脚投票：光芯片就是AI算力的新瓶颈。为什么供给这么刚性？扩产周期长——EML芯片从建设产线到稳定量产需要18-24个月。材料瓶颈——InP（磷化铟）衬底全球产能集中在日本住友等少数企业，扩产需要2-3年。验证壁垒——光芯片进入供应链需要6-12个月客户验证，一旦通过替换成本极高。芯片之外，光纤也在涨价。光互连的量级在跳升，光纤作为最基础的管道，需求最先被放大。中国G.652D裸光纤价格飙升至83.40元/光纤千米，同比涨418%，背后是AI数据中心建设对光纤需求的直接拉动。维度三：AI推理爆发。2026年AI推理工作负载已占全部AI算力的三分之二（Deloitte数据）。训练一个模型用几千张GPU，推理服务几亿用户可能要几万张。集群规模的数量级差异，直接导致光互连需求的数量级跳升。GPU与光模块的比例从1:2提升至1:3到1:5。Token经济在放大这个需求。中信建投数据显示，豆包大模型日均Token使用量2026年3月突破120万亿，自2024年5月增长1000倍。AI Agent的Token消耗量是传统对话的20-30倍，推理集群的跨机柜通信需求呈指数级增长。无论训练还是推理，无论CPO还是可插拔，光互连都是绕不开的基础设施。需求的确定性不再依赖单一技术路线的成败。光通信的景气度还在加速，但在同样的产业趋势下，资金的流向却并不均匀。过去三年，光通信的投资重心经历了一场清晰的迁移。02 资金大迁徙光通信的投资焦点经历了三波迁移。从光模块到光芯片再到上游元件/光纤，背后隐藏的终极逻辑是：产业定价权伴随技术瓶颈的转移而发生系统性上移。先看三波行情的脉络。第一波（2023）——\"易中天\"光模块龙头。2023年是AI大模型爆发元年。ChatGPT用户破亿，英伟达H100发布，算力军备竞赛正式开打。市场最先反应的是光模块——逻辑链最短，GPU集群要通信就得用光模块，算力翻倍光模块就翻倍。2023年800G产品实现从0到1的大幅度跨越，在出货量翻倍与高昂单价的双重共振下，谁能最早打进英伟达供应链，谁受益最大。中际旭创全年涨超300%，新易盛约200%，天孚通信约300%。这一波的核心逻辑是\"产能与客户绑定\"，市场通过线性的订单外推来估值。第二波（2024-2025）——从模块到芯片的裂变，两条主线并发。2025年，下一代1.6T进入送样阶段，硅光引擎的供需矛盾初现端倪。产业界深刻意识到：并非光模块的组装工艺不行，而是制造光模块所需的底层芯片不够用了。英伟达分别向Lumentum和Coherent各豪掷20亿美元，彻底锁定高端EML的未来产能。光芯片成为制约AI算力扩张的新物理瓶颈。2026年全球1.6T需求1500-2000万只，受限于高端芯片和良率，供给严重不足，缺口率40-50%。均价维持在1200美元以上。市场行情沿着两条并行主线全面爆发。第一条主线：二线光模块厂商的突围。一线龙头因高预期被充分定价后，1.6T光模块才刚刚开启放量周期，巨大的增量促使资本寻找新标的。它们能跑出来，溢价在于光芯片自供能力。光迅科技2024年9月就披露自研高端光芯片开始小批量商用，基本实现自主可控。华工科技自研200G硅光芯片，2026年初连涨12天累计涨超80%。这种无惧\"卡脖子\"的确定性，使其获得了远超纯封装企业的估值支撑。第二条主线：光芯片国产替代——第二波真正的引爆点。在高端光芯片（50G以上EML、CW激光器）市场，国产化率不足20%，全球产能又被英伟达等巨头锁死。源杰科技去年全年涨了348%，反超了自己的大客户中际旭创（338%）。公司实现了100G EML商业化量产，CW 70mW硅光光源百万颗的出货量，2025年全年营收6.01亿（+138.5%），归母净利润暴增3212.6%，毛利率58.10%。除了源杰科技，长光华芯、永鼎股份、仕佳光子等企业在积极扩展CW产能，并且市场需求旺盛，同时他们的EML芯片也受到强劲需求。这一阶段的核心逻辑：瓶颈在哪里，定价权就在哪里。第三波（2026至今）——架构变革驱使下，上游元件、光纤与材料的重估。到了2026年，随着CPO技术从概念验证迈向规模化量产产品，整个行业\"切蛋糕\"的底层范式被彻底颠覆。CPO/NPO对产业链最根本的冲击，在于消灭了光模块的物理外壳。在传统插拔式架构下，系统厂商采购的是封装完整的可用光模块成品，大量利润沉淀在中游组装环节。CPO将光引擎与交换芯片直接高密度封装在同一基板上，系统厂商直接与底层光引擎或光学组件供应商对接。与此同时，AI数据中心突破了单一物理空间的极限。当集群规模达到十万卡甚至百万卡，电力和散热需求是任何单个位置都无法满足的。产业界全面转向\"Scale-Across\"架构——将算力任务分布部署在多个物理数据中心内，用极高带宽的光通信网络\"缝合\"成统一算力池。光互连需求从数据中心内部延伸到跨区域。在此背景下，第三波投资焦点全面转向更上游的精密光学元件、基础光纤材料以及特种成型工艺。资本市场的反应极为猛烈。光纤作为整个光网络最基础的物理管道，价格反馈直接粗暴。G.652D普通单模裸光纤价格同比暴涨418%，极端现货报价达到85-120元，出现\"当日有效制\"——当天报价次日即失效。涨价背后是供给的刚性断裂。光纤预制棒（占成本约70%）扩产周期长达1.5-2年，此前行业低谷期厂商严重去产能。AI相关光纤需求占比从2024年的不足5%预计飙升至2027年的35%。头部企业将有限的光棒产能优先拨给高毛利特种光纤（如G.654.E），\"抽干\"了普通散纤的供给池。这一波的核心逻辑：由AI底层架构变革（CPO化、Scale-Across）驱动产业定价权持续上移，产业链中越是具备不可替代性、扩产周期越长、技术壁垒越高的环节，涨幅惊人。这跟2021年锂电池行情的迁移也有相似之处。2020年市场最先发现的是宁德时代（电池厂）。2021年资金开始向上游扩散，期间天齐锂业、赣锋锂业（锂矿）涨幅超过宁德时代。走的依然是下游需求爆发→产能扩张→上游供给刚性暴露→上游定价权提升→资金向上游迁移的逻辑。这似乎是技术产业的普遍规律，光通信只是最新的一个案例。03 第四波会去哪？硅光代工是其中一条主线。LightCounting将2026年确立为‘硅光之年’。随着数据中心向 1.6T 时代迈进，硅光凭借功耗与成本优势，其在高端光模块市场的渗透率预计将迎来爆发式提升，并在未来两年内有望占据超过一半的市场份额。空芯光纤（HCF）是另一条。光在空气中传播比在石英玻璃中快约47%，是解决智算中心微秒级延迟痛点的终极方案。长飞光纤在2026年MWC上发布HollowBand品牌，实现了全球最低衰减（0.04dB/km），已在全球部署超10个商用及试点项目。OCS（全光交换）同样是重头戏。CPO/NPO解决的是\"光电互连\"，OCS解决的是\"光路调度\"——在物理层面实现光信号的无损动态切换，绕开光电转换的延迟瓶颈。Google Jupiter网络已大规模部署300端口OCS交换机，2026年预计需要约15,000台。工信部4月2日印发普惠算力通知，明确推动OCS部署。任何在国内数据中心率先实现OCS商业落地的企业，都有可能被市场爆炒。薄膜铌酸锂（TFLN）、InP衬底、玻璃基板、光芯片制造设备同样值得关注。总的来说，光通信之所以能源源不断地产出牛股，是因为三重催化叠加——技术路线加速演进让市场蛋糕变大，产能瓶颈让上游拥有定价权，AI推理爆发让需求确定性不再依赖单一场景。资金一轮一轮地\"搬家\"，搬的不是情绪，是定价权。但目前光通信公司估值并不便宜，市值短期涨得太快，进度不及预期带来的波动，往往会把疑似戴维斯双击的剧本变成\"跳楼机\"。CPO在2026年仍是\"商用元年\"而非\"放量之年\"，大规模贡献业绩要到2027年。光互连的刚需属性已经确认——但\"刚需\"不等于\"闭眼买就赚\"。在这场资金大迁徙中，方向对了，节奏错了，照样会被甩下车。（全文完）","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":8,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; 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