大摩Wilson：市场调整接近尾声，但最后阶段仍有阵痛

华尔街见闻04-13

摩根士丹利首席股票策略师Wilson表示，本轮标普500调整已接近尾声，但最后一关未必好过。他将本轮定性为牛市中的正常调整：标普500远期市盈率从峰值跌18%，但中位数公司EPS增速创2021年来新高。当前最大变量将是利率与美联储政策。“如果利率或债券波动率再度走高，市场可能会再次回调。”摩根士丹利发出信号，美股调整将尽，但最后一关未必好过。4月12日周日，摩根士丹利首席股票策略师Mike ...

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US Value A (acc) SGD","LU1363072403.SGD":"Fidelity Global Financial Services A-ACC-SGD"},"translate_title":"Morgan Stanley Wilson: Market Correction Nears End, But There Are Still Pains in the Final Stage","themeId":"6e7a4338b1034ad785d5025385d8625c","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2448600f9ee2bb2a4347defc154b37c6","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":2},"content_text":"摩根士丹利首席股票策略师Wilson表示，本轮标普500调整已接近尾声，但最后一关未必好过。他将本轮定性为牛市中的正常调整：标普500远期市盈率从峰值跌18%，但中位数公司EPS增速创2021年来新高。当前最大变量将是利率与美联储政策。“如果利率或债券波动率再度走高，市场可能会再次回调。”摩根士丹利发出信号，美股调整将尽，但最后一关未必好过。4月12日周日，摩根士丹利首席股票策略师Mike Wilson在最新周报中表示，当前市场的调整进程比多数投资者意识到的更为深入，标普500正在筑底，但在利率和债券波动率问题彻底解决之前，市场仍面临再次回测的风险。Wilson认为当前的市场情绪依然脆弱。他明确表示，本轮调整始于去年10月，标普500远期市盈率从峰值累计下跌18%——这一跌幅在历史上通常只出现在经济衰退或美联储主动收紧周期中。“但这两种情况在我们的基准预测中都不存在。”牛市调整，而非熊市Wilson坚持认为，这是“2022至2025年滚动式衰退触底后、去年4月开启的新一轮牛市中的正常调整”，而非趋势逆转。关键依据在于盈利。标普500价格跌幅不足10%，而罗素3000中超过半数个股已跌逾20%。Wilson的解读是：这不是市场的自满，而是市场已经对风险做出了合理定价。支撑这一判断的核心数据是：当前中位数公司EPS增速达到两位数，为2021年以来最快。“估值倍数下降叠加盈利增长改善——这是典型的牛市调整特征，而非熊市。”Wilson写道。他还对比了历史上的石油冲击周期：彼时盈利已在恶化，而当前盈利仍在从高位加速增长，且本轮油价涨幅以实际价值衡量相对温和。其他风险：私人信贷与AI扰动Wilson也正面回应了市场另外两大担忧。私人信贷方面，他引用同事Vishy Tirupattur的观点：“私人信贷的风险是实质性的，但不具有系统性。”私人信贷已在收紧，但多数银行的直接敞口有限，这反而可能推动业务回流传统贷款机构。AI扰动方面，Wilson认为叙事跑在了现实前面。“企业应用层仍处于早期阶段，短期内AI更可能支撑利润率，而非压缩利润率。”他补充说，AI还给企业提供了压低招聘的理由，进而带来经营杠杆的上行惊喜——这正是当前EPS增速加快的原因之一。最后一关：利率与美联储Wilson明确指出，当前市场最大的不确定性来源是利率和政策，而非地缘政治或信贷风险。股债相关性已再度转为明显负值，意味着利率上升重新成为估值的阻力。他将央行的鹰派转向——主要由大宗商品通胀预期驱动——定性为\"股市需要跨越的最后一道坎\"。上周市场的部分反弹，恰好与美联储主席鲍威尔释放更中性立场、债券波动率回落同步发生。\"调整的最后阶段从来都不轻松，\"Wilson写道，\"如果利率或债券波动率再度走高，市场可能需要再次回测。\"但他同时强调，这种波动是筑底过程的一部分，而非新一轮熊市的开始。\"市场通常不会给投资者多次机会，这也是我们鼓励提前布局的原因。\"策略倾向：哑铃配置在具体策略上，Wilson维持\"哑铃\"配置框架：一端是盈利稳健、估值已压缩的周期股，包括金融、工业和消费品（耐用品）；另一端是情绪与估值均已重置至健康水平的优质成长股，即超大规模云计算公司（hyperscalers）。他的最终判断是：\"地缘政治风险、私人信贷担忧和AI扰动的大部分定价调整已经完成。剩下的主要是利率和政策问题，而这将随着美联储领导层交接的完成而得到解决。\"\"市场永远走在新闻前面，投资者也应如此。\"","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":true,"video":{"duration":55,"video_url":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/e2ad4227vodcq1254107296/f6d33d1f5145403723223917556/cxOVKXDVMWoA.mp4","video_thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3de75297a5fdddf79295549916ec9d1a"},"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.43.1","shortVersion":"4.43.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2627485733","isCrawlerRequest":true}