阿里、腾讯、百度集体调价，Token第一股年内狂飙547%，算力涨价潮来了

21世纪经济报道04-16

记者丨雷晨编辑丨倪雨晴金珊江佩霞朱益民国内云计算进入“算力通胀”时代。4月15日，阿里云宣布自7月15日起，DDoS高防（中国内地）弹性95费用上调50%（从每兆瓦月100元涨至150元），这是阿里云一个月内第三次调价。这一轮全球涨价潮由海外率先引爆——亚马逊AWS年初率先上调AI算力价格，谷歌云随后跟进，最高涨幅达100%。腾讯云、百度智能云也同步跟进。腾讯云4月9日宣布AI算力、容器、...

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the year, and the price increase of computing power came","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/019e29f8c3a7f20cf0d7a1f811baf35d","symbols_score_info":{"BABW":0.6,"KBAB":0.6,"BABA":1.91,"09988":1.91,"09888":1.89,"BIDG":0.6,"TCEHY":1.88,"BIDU":1.89,"BABX":0.6,"BABU":0.6,"HTCD.SI":0.6,"BBYY":0.6,"BABO":0.6,"KBDU":0.6,"00700":1.88},"content_text":"记者丨雷晨编辑丨倪雨晴 金珊 江佩霞 朱益民国内云计算进入“算力通胀”时代。4月15日，阿里云宣布自7月15日起，DDoS高防（中国内地）弹性95费用上调50%（从每兆瓦月100元涨至150元），这是阿里云一个月内第三次调价。这一轮全球涨价潮由海外率先引爆——亚马逊AWS年初率先上调AI算力价格，谷歌云随后跟进，最高涨幅达100%。腾讯云、百度智能云也同步跟进。腾讯云4月9日宣布AI算力、容器、EMR全线上调5%；百度智能云AI算力与存储上调5%~30%。涨价背后最根本的驱动力，是Token消耗的爆发式增长。国家数据局局长刘烈宏在3月24日的国新办新闻发布会上披露：“到今年3月，我国日均Token的调用量已超过140万亿，相比2024年初的1000亿增长了1000多倍，相比2024年底的100万亿，三个月时间又增长了40%多。”对于“Token”，国家数据局已正式将其定名为“词元”。它正从AI技术的计量单位，加速转变为智能时代的产业“货币”，其消耗规模的激增直接推高了算力需求，进而带动云计算服务价格上涨。Token热度也蔓延到资本市场，去年底登陆港交所的“Token第一股”迅策仅用100天市值突破1000亿港元，年内涨幅达547%。港股云巨头们近日也迎来股价大反弹，4月16日盘中，百度集团涨超7%，阿里巴巴涨近5%，腾讯控股涨超2%。Token消耗激增OpenClaw是这轮Token需求爆发的核心因素之一。据OpenRouter平台数据，2026年3月16日至22日当周，平台接近四分之一的Token消耗由OpenClaw贡献。另据国金证券计算机行业周报，截至2026年3月9日至15日的周度数据，OpenRouter平台内20%的Token消耗由OpenClaw贡献，OpenClaw单周Token消耗量已相当于2025年第四季度全平台周均Token消耗量的60%。Token消耗量的快速攀升，首先暴露了一个深层矛盾：消耗量增长，并不等同于智能水平同步提升。智能体与传统Chatbot的业务逻辑存在本质差异。传统Chatbot遵循用户提问到模型回答的单轮交互模式，Token消耗与对话轮次呈线性关系。而智能体具备感知、决策、执行的闭环能力，需要自主拆解复杂任务、调用外部工具、多轮迭代验证，直至任务完成。这种业务逻辑的差异，直接导致了Token消耗量的数量级放大。这个问题在商业层面已经产生了真实冲突。2026年4月初，Anthropic停止了订阅用户通过OpenClaw等第三方工具接入ClaudeAPI的许可。Anthropic官方解释称，部分重度用户每月仅支付200美元订阅费，却消耗了价值5000美元的算力资源，给公司带来巨大成本压力。一个OpenClaw代理运行一天，消耗的算力成本在1000美元到5000美元之间，受影响用户需切换至按用量付费的API模式。商业模式与智能体算力消耗现实之间的核心矛盾已然爆发。智能体场景下的Token消耗不可预测，没有历史数据可以参考，任何固定月费都在对一个无法建模的变量做猜测。问题的根源不在于定价策略本身，而在于Token消耗的底层逻辑正在被智能体技术彻底改写。今年3月下旬，火山引擎总裁谭待在接受21世纪经济报道等媒体采访时也指出，目前探索中的Token有一大半都是无谓的探索。他举例说，很多用户反馈智能体产品Token消耗快，核心问题不是单Token贵，而是它完成任务时的大量无效尝试——为了找到最终解法，超过一半的Token都消耗在探索中。如果单Token成本低但模型能力不足，需要消耗10倍甚至20倍的Token还无法完成任务，最终只会造成更大的浪费。这标志着，智能体的普及正在以远超预期的速度消耗算力资源，而现有的计费体系和效率管理机制仍有完善空间。近期，小米集团MiMo负责人罗福莉在社交平台发文指出，从宏观角度看，全球计算资源增长的脚步已跟不上Agent带来的Token需求增长。真正的出路不是提供更便宜的Token，而是让“更高效的Agent框架”×“更强大且更高效的模型”协同演进。算力持续紧缺当前，推理正在取代训练成为算力消耗的主战场。德勤在2026年1月发布的《2026科技、传媒和电信行业预测》报告中指出，2026年AI推理将占算力三分之二，主要在近5000亿美元新数据中心及企业服务器进行。而推理算力需求占比近七成之后，竞争规则正在改写。单Token成本、部署密度、能效比取代单纯峰值算力，成为客户选型的关键考量因素。与此同时，算力供给的结构性缺口正在放大。根据半导体研究机构SemiAnalysis发布的数据，H100一年期租赁合同价格从2025年10月的低点1.70美元/小时/GPU飙升至2026年3月的2.35美元/小时/GPU，涨幅近40%。该指数基于对100多家云服务商、算力买家与卖家的月度直接调查构建。尽管价格上涨，相关GPU租赁容量已全部售罄，2026年初寻找新GPU算力资源的难度被比喻为“预订最后一班航班的机票”，不仅价格高昂且几乎无余量可选。紧张的并不只有GPU。据报道，2026年3月下旬，英特尔与AMD相继通知客户上调处理器价格。过去几个月，CPU作为AI服务器调度与推理核心被云厂商大量采购，两大巨头2026年服务器CPU产能目前已基本售罄。与此同时，头部互联网公司正在大幅加码资本支出。财报数据显示，腾讯资本支出在2024年迅速增加到768亿元，同比增长221%，2025年进一步增至792亿元；阿里巴巴资本支出从2023年244亿元增长至2025年的1039亿元，突破千亿。据媒体公开报道，字节跳动2026年资本支出计划约1600亿元，约一半投向AI芯片和数据中心。算力紧张的另一个侧面，是中国AI芯片市场格局正在发生深刻变化。据IDC数据，2025年中国市场AI加速卡总出货量约为400万张。英伟达出货约220万张，市场份额55%；AMD出货约16万张，市场份额4%。中国本土厂商合计出货约165万张，市场份额约41%。在中国厂商阵营中，华为处于领先地位。据IDC数据，2025年华为出货约81.2万颗AI芯片，约占整体市场20%，接近国内供应商总出货的一半。阿里巴巴旗下平头哥以约26.5万颗居次，市场份额约7%。百度昆仑芯与寒武纪各约11.6万颗，并列第三。中信证券指出，Agent&多模态等应用爆发驱动Token调用量井喷，进而导致国内算力荒，国产大模型在推理端积极适配为国产算力厂商带来加速放量机遇，预计2026年国产算力芯片出货量至少实现翻倍以上增长，将为算力设计公司、先进制程、先进封装、先进存储以及配套产业链带来强劲增长动能。本土厂商的崛起，正在逐步改变中国AI芯片市场的供给格局，为缓解算力缺口提供了新的可能。商业模式重构Token经济的最后一块拼图是商业模式。当Token消耗量从万亿级迈向百万亿级，如何定价、如何收费，直接关系到产业的商业闭环能否跑通。回顾行业发展，2024年下半年至2025年初，中国大模型市场深陷价格战，字节豆包报价低至0.0008元/千Tokens，智谱自己也曾将GLM-4-Plus大幅降价。但这一格局在2026年正在发生根本性变化。智谱成为国产头部模型厂商中首个在推出新模型的同时，执行实质性提价的公司。2月发布GLM-5时，CodingPlan套餐价格上调30%起，3月发布GLM-5-Turbo时再涨20%，相对GLM-4.7累计涨幅达83%。涨价并未抑制需求。据智谱公开披露，2026年一季度API调用定价提升了83%，调用量反而增长400%。智谱MaaSAPI平台ARR约17亿元，在过去12个月提升60倍。截至2026年3月，平台注册用户已突破400万，覆盖全球218个国家和地区。智谱CEO张鹏表示，当模型足够强，API本身就是最好的商业模式，定价权是由技术实力以及长期趋势所带来的领先地位决定的。当前，Token计费正成为行业标准。今年3月，刘烈宏在中国发展高层论坛年会上指出，一套以词元（Token）计费为基础的新型商业逻辑正在加速演进，围绕词元的调用、分发与结算，一套新的价值体系正在加速演进形成。但Token定价面临的真正难题，不在于收费标准，而在于智能体场景下的Token消耗目前高度不可预测。与电力或钢铁等传统生产要素不同，Token具备独特的可编程性。英伟达创始人兼CEO黄仁勋在2026年3月的一篇署名文章中，将Token定义为现代AI的基本单位，并指出它同时具有两种属性：作为语言，它是计算过程的原子；作为货币，它是价值流通的媒介。谭待在受访时指出，判断行业阶段可以用终局倒推——看所有Tokens未来能产生的收入规模，再对比当前全球行业的实际收入，可以看出所处位置。目前OpenAI、Anthropic等企业的收入已知，全球行业收入大概是这些企业收入的三倍。整体来看，AI算力与Token经济仍处于极早期阶段，定价机制、效率管理、供给能力等方面，仍有巨大的完善和提升空间。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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