中信证券：面板厂短期业绩趋势环比向好中长期价值逻辑持续兑现

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智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，短期来看，赛事备货推动面板供需向好，TV面板26Q1全面涨价，26M4有望持续，面板厂业绩趋势环比向好。长期来看，该行坚定看好面板行业良性竞争下的价值逻辑，预计未来行业利润释放将从主要依赖涨价驱动逐步转向更多的产业价值创造，主要体现在：大尺寸化推动供需平衡中枢持续上行从而支撑价格平稳向上，制造端持续国产化降本及高端化升级，折旧迎来达峰退出，少数股权收回等，...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1429140.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，短期来看，赛事备货推动面板供需向好，TV面板26Q1全面涨价，26M4有望持续，面板厂业绩趋势环比向好。长期来看，该行坚定看好面板行业良性竞争下的价值逻辑，预计未来行业利润释放将从主要依赖涨价驱动逐步转向更多的产业价值创造，主要体现在：大尺寸化推动供需平衡中枢持续上行从而支撑价格平稳向上，制造端持续国产化降本及高端化升级，折旧迎来达峰退出，少数股权收回等，...</p>\n\n<a 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TV面板价格上涨35%~58%，主营LCD的龙头单季显示业务净利润改善超50亿，该行测算龙头厂商LCD TV净利率在旺季(25Q2&3)下已提升至15%+。26H1来看，冬奥会、世界杯拉动下26H1 TV面板需求积极，且存储成本占比较低，存储涨价冲击较小，该行认为随着26Q1面板涨价以及延续至26Q2，主流面板厂业绩趋势有望环比向好。长期机会：LCD利润释放自涨价驱动转向价值创造，未来快速增长趋势明确。随着行业自盈利修复期转向良性上行期，该行判断后续面板价格仍是重要的基本面观测指标及交易情绪催化，但提升节奏及幅度或相较前3年放缓，预计未来利润释放将从主要依赖涨价驱动转向更多的产业价值创造，其中核心关注三大方向：1)驱动一：供需中枢上移支撑价格平稳向上，国产化、工艺降本、结构升级推动利润释放。行业供需稳定向上，该行测算至2028年行业有望进入紧平衡状态，从而为面板价格的稳定向上提供底层支撑；同时通过工艺升级、上游物料国产化降本以及高端产品渗透升级，面板厂现金毛利率有望保持低个位数稳定提升。2)驱动二：CAPEX有望维持低位，折旧达峰退出推动利润加速释放。预计未来行业在LCD、6代OLED方面投资有限，8代OLED投入相对可控，整体CAPEX水平有望维持低位，同时折旧预计在2025年迎来达峰，后续利润将进入加速释放阶段，该行通过详细梳理各产线建设、折旧及扩产计划，估测2030年龙头公司产线原始投资折旧(不含维护及技改)有望较2025年下降，为利润加速释放贡献重要动能。3)驱动三：少数股东权益收回，归母净利润有望进一步增厚。随着盈利能力提升、CAPEX下降，该行看好面板厂现金流保持充盈，预计后续面板厂将持续通过自有资金推动少数股东权益收回，因而归母利润及EPS有望进一步增厚。风险因素：国际宏观政治经济波动；下游需求走弱；面板价格下跌风险；行业竞争激烈；技术革新风险等。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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中信证券：面板厂短期业绩趋势环比向好 中长期价值逻辑持续兑现

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中信证券：面板厂短期业绩趋势环比向好中长期价值逻辑持续兑现