韩元将吹响反攻号角？油价暴跌+外资回流，策略师料二季度重返1420

智通财经04-09

智通财经APP获悉，策略师表示，受油价下跌和外资流入韩国股市的推动，韩元汇率可能在今年第二季度反弹至美伊战事爆发前的水平。友利银行预计，韩元将升至1美元兑1420韩元，意味着较当前水平上涨约4%。NH投资证券公司和KB Kookmin银行则认为，韩元汇率将回升至1美元兑1450韩元附近，而战前水平约为1440韩元。在连续七个交易日上涨后，韩元兑美元周四一度下跌0.5%，至1,484.55韩元。油价...

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Oil price plunge + foreign capital return, strategists expect to return to 1420 in the second quarter","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"EWY":1.5,"VDE":1.5,"BWET":1.5,"USE":1.5,"USL":1.5,"FLKR":1.5,"BNO":1.5,"USOI":1.5,"KUmain":1.5,"ERX":1.5,"IXC":1.5,"KORU":1.5,"UGA":1.5,"DBO":1.5,"MKOR":1.5,"DRIP":1.5,"DIG":1.5,"DRLL":1.5,"DBC":1.5,"DBE":1.5,"OIH":1.5,"OILT":1.5,"OILU":1.5,"GUSH":1.5,"IEO":1.5,"DUG":1.5,"PXJ":1.5,"OILK":1.5},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，策略师表示，受油价下跌和外资流入韩国股市的推动，韩元汇率可能在今年第二季度反弹至美伊战事爆发前的水平。友利银行预计，韩元将升至1美元兑1420韩元，意味着较当前水平上涨约4%。NH投资证券公司和KB Kookmin银行则认为，韩元汇率将回升至1美元兑1450韩元附近，而战前水平约为1440韩元。在连续七个交易日上涨后，韩元兑美元周四一度下跌0.5%，至1,484.55韩元。油价暴跌正在缓解高度依赖进口的韩国以及其他亚洲市场的压力，后者周三已出现反弹。本周也有迹象显示全球资本正重返韩国股市。随着韩元汇率已测试极端水平，且中东紧张局势出现缓和迹象，市场对韩元反弹的预期正在升温。友利银行经济学家Gyeong-Won Min表示：“如果中东不确定性缓解，美元过度多头仓位将逐步平仓。与韩国基本面相关的潜在供需状况应保持稳健，如果外资转为净买入韩股，韩元反弹速度可能快于预期。”不过，仍有部分机构预期韩元将进一步走弱。外资3月净卖出238亿美元的韩国综合指数(Kospi)股票，创下纪录新高，加剧了韩元贬值压力。马来亚银行外汇策略师肖恩·林表示，当前停火协议似乎脆弱，韩元本季度末可能跌至1,500韩元。他称：“考虑到双向风险，霍尔木兹海峡不会在一夜之间重新开放，即使重新开放，石油产量也需要时间才能恢复正常。任何停火协议的破裂都将支撑美元。”然而，海外投资者已连续两个交易日净买入韩股，周三买入规模达13亿美元。NH投资证券公司经济学家Ahmin Kwon补充道，强劲的一季度企业盈利可能支撑资金回流。她表示，当前的汇率水平叠加稳健的企业盈利，对海外投资者而言可能显得颇具吸引力。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.43.1","shortVersion":"4.43.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2626774809","isCrawlerRequest":true}