准确预言金融危机的人，发出警告

金融界04-10

来源：华尔街情报圈曾成功预测了2000年和2008年的金融危机的法国兴业银行策略师爱德华兹发出警告，股市牛市的一个关键支柱可能即将崩塌。爱德华兹的逻辑非常缜密：伊朗冲突、油价飙升的大背景下，美股没怎么崩甚至还能反弹，原因只有一个——企业盈利还很强。市场逻辑很简单“油价高归高，但公司还在赚钱，那我怕什么？”但盈利“变好的速度”，开始变慢了。不是看盈利在涨没涨，而是看上涨的动能还在不在，看“二阶导”（...

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Bear 2X Shares","IXC":"全球能源业ETF-iShares","OILT":"Texas Oil Index ETF","OILU":"MicroSectors Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. 3x Leveraged ETN","IEO":"iShares Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas","DIG":"二倍做多美国油气指数"},"translate_title":"People who accurately predicted the financial crisis, issued warnings","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"USE":0.68,"OILK":0.68,"PXJ":0.68,"USL":0.68,"DBC":0.68,"DBE":0.68,"DIG":0.68,"OILT":0.68,"GUSH":0.68,"DUG":0.68,"OILU":0.68,"BWET":0.68,"OIH":0.68,"DBO":0.68,"USOI":0.68,"DRIP":0.68,"VDE":0.68,"DRLL":0.68,"ERX":0.68,"IEO":0.68,"UGA":0.68,"BNO":0.68,"IXC":0.68},"content_text":"来源：华尔街情报圈曾成功预测了2000年和2008年的金融危机的法国兴业银行策略师爱德华兹发出警告，股市牛市的一个关键支柱可能即将崩塌。爱德华兹的逻辑非常缜密：伊朗冲突、油价飙升的大背景下，美股没怎么崩甚至还能反弹，原因只有一个——企业盈利还很强。市场逻辑很简单“油价高归高，但公司还在赚钱，那我怕什么？”但盈利“变好的速度”，开始变慢了。不是看盈利在涨没涨，而是看上涨的动能还在不在，看“二阶导”（变化的变化）。现在的情况是，盈利增长还在涨。但上涨速度，开始放缓。车还在往前开，但油门已经松了。为什么会开始“松油门”？答案是油价。油价持续高位，带来三重连锁反应：通胀再起、利率预期反转、经济被“慢慢勒住”。市场还没反应过来，市场是在“看后视镜开车”，盈利还不错，那就继续买。科技股/AI板块盈利很好，给市场一种“很安全”的错觉。但盈利是滞后指标，等你看到它真的掉头，市场通常已经跌完第一段了。当前的分歧主要是时间维度分歧：空头的逻辑：油价→通胀→利率→经济→盈利下修——当前麻痹、自满，像70年代石油危机前夕；多头的逻辑：战争才刚开始一个月，滞胀需要“几年级别”的冲击——现在谈这个太早。爱德华兹的观点可以用一句话概括，盈利预期，一点一点被下修，是牛市真正结束的方式。市场现在最大的问题，不是坏消息，而是——好消息开始变少了。\n\n美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>>\n\r\n            责任编辑：栎树","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"tenantId":"TBCN","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.43.1","shortVersion":"4.43.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2626709156","isCrawlerRequest":true}